NBC: Is 'Dracula' This Season's 'Hannibal'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

December 10th, 2013

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-December 8, 2013):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.71
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.78
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.81
Revolution :| :| :| 0.92
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.93
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.39
The Blacklist renewed 1.93

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One of the Cancellation Bear's two big prediction misses* last season, Hannibal could do no better than a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating for its final four episodes during the Spring of 2013, about 70% of NBC's Spring scripted ratings average. The bear gave it just a 30% chance of renewal in the final reckoning, and yet it was renewed.

How'd that happen? Best guess is that the international production made the cost to NBC so low that it could take a flyer on a second season, even with those woeful ratings.

Could the same happen to Dracula?

Perhaps, but sadly impossible for the bear to guess accurately. Unlike Hannibal, in addition to the non-US production companies, Dracula is co-produced by NBC Universal. Does that mean it's not the low cost deal that Hannibal was? Or does that mean NBC is more likely to hang onto it given disappointing ratings? Sadly, those things are hidden from the bear, and the rest of the public.

Was last Friday's 1.1 rating a fluke? or a sign that the bear needs to change his Dracula prediction? We won't know anytime soon, the next new Dracula episode airs on January 3.

*the other being The Carrie Diaries.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

  • :oops: - certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
  • :cry: :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
  • :| :| :| - toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
  • :) :) :) :) - more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
  • :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: - certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Isobel

    I don’t mind Dracula but with similar shows like Hannibal, crossbones and wolf man possibly getting better ratings it could be in trouble

  • greysfan

    IMO NBC have to give up comedy Thursdays. I know its been tradition but the time has come for them to replace it with drama and having the best new drama on the box right now The Blacklist could work perfectly. Is it a risk? Sure it is but if the show continues to hold up (without The Voice in January) like it has then its the perfect time to throw a bomb on Thursdays comedy lineup which is truly not working and try to return drama to Thursdays on NBC. This is the thing. The networks are persisting with WAY too many comedies and this is why so many keep getting cancelled.

  • My Name is Charlotte

    NBC smart move to next year

    Sunday (Midseason)
    NEW COMEDY
    NEW COMEDY
    Believe
    Parenthood

    Monday
    The Voice
    NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    The voice
    NEW COMEDY
    About a Boy
    Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    The Night Shift
    SVU
    Revolution

    Thursday
    Parks and Recreation (13 ep.) / Community (13 ep.)
    NEW COMEDY
    The Blacklist
    Crisis

    Friday
    Grimm
    Hannibal
    Dracula / Crossbones

  • cameron

    I hope the untitled immortals drama, Constantine, and The Inn are all ordered to pilot

  • Kissan

    This is my prediction for NBC’s midseason schedule:

    Sunday

    8:00-American Dream Builders
    9:00-Celebrity Apprentice
    10:00-Crisis

    Monday

    8:00-The Voice
    10:00-The Blacklist (move it to Wednesdays or Thursdays next season)

    Tuesday

    8:00-About A Boy (should be on at 8 since it’ll be going up against other comedies)
    8:30-Growing Up Fisher (same thing as About A Boy)
    9:00-The Voice (should still be on at 9 with weaker competition)
    10:00-Chicago Fire

    Wednesday

    8:00-Revolution
    9:00-SVU
    10:00-Chicago PD

    Thursday

    8:00-Community
    8:30-Parks & Rec
    9:00-Believe (should not be on Sundays against TWD and GOT)
    10:00-Parenthood (only show that can survive against Scandal)

    Friday

    8:00-SSTW (should move to Fridays to see how it does, if it does bad still then burn off)
    8:30-MJF Show (same as SSTW)
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-Crossbones

  • Isobel

    With the popularity of superheroes right now, Constantine’s probably a go

  • Isobel

    Emerald city could be interesting if they really use all of L. Frank Baum’s books

  • Chief

    I am enjoying the different spin on the traditional Dracula that this series represents.

  • Erencan

    My 2014-15 CBS Schedule Predictions
    Monday:
    08:00 – The Voice/The Biggest Loser
    10:00 – The Blacklist

    Tuesday:
    08:00 – The Voice/The Biggest Loser
    09:00 – New Sitcom
    09:30 – New Sitcom
    10:00 – Chicago Fire

    Wednesday:
    08:00 – About a Boy
    08:30 – Undateable
    09:00 – Law & Order: Special Victims Unit
    10:00 – Chicago PD

    Thursday:
    08:00 – Revolution
    09:00 – New Drama
    10:00 – Believe

    Friday:
    08:00 – Dateline NBC
    09:00 – Grimm
    10:00 – The Night Shift

    Midseason:
    Parenthood
    Crossbones
    Community

  • StevenD

    @ Kissan

    I really like that schedule.

    As of right now I don’t think Celebrity Apprentice is in production, so The Night Shift would ideally go there (Celebrity Apprentice is a much more compatable show though)

  • Abyss

    Hannibal had another network standing, right there, moneycheque in hand, waiting for NBC to drop it, practically begging NBC to drop the show so the other network could grab it up.

    Dracula, not so much.

  • Marianne

    I hope they dont cancel Dracula. Love the show and Jonathan Rhys Myers. At least it’s not another reality show.

  • VesperGlow

    Are the OnDemand viewers included in the rating numbers? I always catch the show OnDemand.
    JRM is a very talented actor and does an excellent performance as Dracula. The supporting cast is also good. Whoever did the casting for the show has a good instincts of what works.
    The storyline is a more interesting presentation of Dracula than I had seen previously. Each episode introduces a new and exciting twist.

  • Anthony

    Are the OnDemand viewers included in the rating numbers? I always catch the show OnDemand.

    If the OnDemand viewing runs the same commercials as the initial broadcast, they are counted in it ratings, but even then it wouldn’t necessarily be reflected in the initial Live+Same Day ratings (the ones seen daily on this site) since the shows don’t appear on OnDemand until the next day or later. If they run different commercials, they still “count” in the sense that it is a revenue stream for show, however they just count in a different (and less significant way). Also as a side note unless you have a nielsen box, you viewing isn’t counted in the ratings either way.

  • Angela Mitchell

    I loved “Hannibal,” and don’t think it’s sacrilege to mention “Dracula” in the same breath, so I have to disagree with some posters here. If you haven’t checked out “Dracula” after its first episode or two, the show has actually continued to improve since the pilot, and I’m surprised to say that it’s really hooked me completely. The characters are complex, the acting is terrific (aside from the completely boring Mina/Jonathan) and JRM is at a career-best, charismatic and really interesting (far more so than in “The Tudors”), so I really wish him well in his recovery efforts and hope that continues to go well for him. Best of all, Dracula is a fascinating antihero (a Victorian feminist, abolitionist, and more) who still feels true to the period in his monster-ish way, and the production is absolutely gorgeous to look at, from cinematography to costumes, props and more.

    I’m assuming “Dracula” is doomed so I’ll enjoy while it lasts, but the show is honestly miles above most of the other new dreck this season, and it definitely deserves its chance. I give the show full props for engaging me even when I wasn’t sure I was even interested to begin with — and I’m now a bona fide fan of the show. I’d definitely recommend a second look to those of you who never revisited the show — it’s worth the watch.

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