Bubble Watch: CW: Dim Prospects For ‘Beauty & the Beast’ & ‘Carrie’; ‘Tomorrow People’ Already Yesterday’s News?

The Tomorrow People Pilot

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. Next up, The CW, which spiced up a dull month by finally releasing their midseason schedule.

The CW Fall Summary

Hart of Dixie

After the February 10th airing, moves to Fridays @ 9 starting March 21st

Pro: Did okay thrown under The Voice; needs a fourth season for syndication. Even Nikita received a (sort of) fourth season. The CW seems committed to airing first-run shows on Fridays.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Beauty & the Beast

After the March 10th airing, goes on hiatus

Pro: Enough rookies could fail that The CW needs something for Fridays next season.

Con: The worst rated Monday – Thursday show on The CW. Being pulled off the air. Being thrown under the Olympics. As a second season show, the renewal would effectively be for two seasons.

Odds of renewal: 10%

The Originals

Pro: Considering it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in like The Blacklist, arguably the biggest (relative) hit of the season.

Odds of renewal: 100%


Pro: The #2 show on the network, despite all the timeslots it has had in the past. No public statements about costs getting out of control.

Con: The show is ancient. It is literally older than the network it airs on. Eventually, either the talent will want to leave or the costs will grow too high to be sustainable (even if it isn’t this year).

Odds of renewal: 95%


Pro: Still holding strong in season 2.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Tomorrow People

After the March 12th airing, moves to Mondays @ 9 starting March 17th

Pro: Genre shows have survived on Mondays (Chuck, Heroes, Fringe, etc.) Whatever the minimum survival level on Mondays for The CW is, it isn’t very high.

Con: If it could only manage a 0.5 against The X-Factor this week, what will it manage opposite The Voice? (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.)

Odds of renewal: 20%

The Vampire Diaries

Pro: The #1 show on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%


Pro: It wasn’t moved at midseason. Now takes the pole position for “Show The CW renews because they don’t want to launch 4+ shows at once in Fall”. (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.)

Con: American Idol should be stronger competition than The X-Factor. Not a clear hit (its average is over three tenths less than Arrow/Supernatural/The Vampire Diaries/The Originals). If The 100 is a hit, things get interesting.

Odds of renewal: 70%

The Carrie Diaries

Pro: The Josh Schwartz name.

Con: The ratings have been terrible on Fridays. That it was scheduled for Fridays in the first place.

Odds of renewal: 5%


Final Season

This week’s other notable data points:

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. continued the rollercoaster by hitting a series low. I’m still not changing my prediction, as Paul Lee should survive through at least Summer and will have every reason to try and give this a reboot or three.

The CBS Thursday @9 comedy block continues to flounder, with The Crazy Ones tying its series low (except this time, it had a new The Big Bang Theory leading off the night) and Two and a Half Men doing no better… so I moved Mom to “On the Bubble”. Barring another midseason schedule announcement, we’ll get to CBS next week, but the short version is: I don’t see CBS cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows this season. One of them lives.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon a Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
The Tomorrow People CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Mom CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon a Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Reign CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed

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