Bubble Watch: CW: Dim Prospects For 'Beauty & the Beast' & 'Carrie'; 'Tomorrow People' Already Yesterday's News?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 14th, 2013

The Tomorrow People Pilot

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. Next up, The CW, which spiced up a dull month by finally releasing their midseason schedule.

The CW Fall Summary

Hart Of Dixie

After the February 10th airing, moves to Fridays @ 9 starting March 21st

Pro: Did okay thrown under The Voice; needs a fourth season for syndication. Even Nikita received a (sort of) fourth season. The CW seems committed to airing first-run shows on Fridays.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Beauty & the Beast

After the March 10th airing, goes on hiatus

Pro: Enough rookies could fail that The CW needs something for Fridays next season.

Con: The worst rated Monday – Thursday show on The CW. Being pulled off the air. Being thrown under the Olympics. As a second season show, the renewal would effectively be for two seasons.

Odds of renewal: 10%

The Originals

Pro: Considering it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in like The Blacklist, arguably the biggest (relative) hit of the season.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Supernatural

Pro: The #2 show on the network, despite all the timeslots it has had in the past. No public statements about costs getting out of control.

Con: The show is ancient. It is literally older than the network it airs on. Eventually, either the talent will want to leave or the costs will grow too high to be sustainable (even if it isn’t this year).

Odds of renewal: 95%

Arrow

Pro: Still holding strong in season 2.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Tomorrow People

After the March 12th airing, moves to Mondays @ 9 starting March 17th

Pro: Genre shows have survived on Mondays (Chuck, Heroes, Fringe, etc.) Whatever the minimum survival level on Mondays for The CW is, it isn’t very high.

Con: If it could only manage a 0.5 against The X-Factor this week, what will it manage opposite The Voice? (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.)

Odds of renewal: 20%

The Vampire Diaries

Pro: The #1 show on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Reign

Pro: It wasn’t moved at midseason. Now takes the pole position for “Show The CW renews because they don’t want to launch 4+ shows at once in Fall”. (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.)

Con: American Idol should be stronger competition than The X-Factor. Not a clear hit (its average is over three tenths less than Arrow/Supernatural/The Vampire Diaries/The Originals). If The 100 is a hit, things get interesting.

Odds of renewal: 70%

The Carrie Diaries

Pro: The Josh Schwartz name.

Con: The ratings have been terrible on Fridays. That it was scheduled for Fridays in the first place.

Odds of renewal: 5%

Nikita

Final Season

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This week’s other notable data points:

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. continued the rollercoaster by hitting a series low. I’m still not changing my prediction, as Paul Lee should survive through at least Summer and will have every reason to try and give this a reboot or three.

The CBS Thursday @9 comedy block continues to flounder, with The Crazy Ones tying its series low (except this time, it had a new The Big Bang Theory leading off the night) and Two and a Half Men doing no better… so I moved Mom to “On the Bubble”. Barring another midseason schedule announcement, we’ll get to CBS next week, but the short version is: I don’t see CBS cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows this season. One of them lives.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
The Tomorrow People CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Mom CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Reign CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed

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  • Pepper

    TCD and BATB are goners for sure. The only way TTP will be renewed is if the 100 and Starcrossed (or whatever it’s called) tank horribly in the spring.

  • kita

    re. SPN: Jared Padalecki and Jensen Ackles are contracted through season 10, so their commitment isn’t a factor this season or next. That doesn’t take the issue of cost off the table, obviously. They’ve also said they’ll continue after Season 10 if they’re still happy with the quality (and they’re both very proud of the current season) but of course that’s just talking.

  • Jane Elliot

    It is literally older than the network it airs on.

    Hee! I loved this :)

  • Kolinskias

    sry Arrow isnt the 1st show on CW?

  • Nick.

    TVD is doing better than Arrow and (I think) Originals too.

  • Mark

    Kol, depends what you use as your measuring stick. In terms of actual viewers Arrow is #1. I think in terms of the 18-49 Demo most advertisers use it’s a tossup between Arrow and TVD, now if you talking the target demo the CW is going after(ie young females) Arrow doesn’t get as high in that

  • iSayso

    Yay! Couldn’t happen to a more suckier trio.

  • Ashley

    I hope they save The Carrie Diaries. The network is SO full of genre shows, a teen soap is a nice change of pace.

  • Jon

    Why is reign 70 percent renewal and http only 20 percent. Aren’t they pretty much pulling similar numbers?

  • Eelna

    Jon
    TTP premiered to a 2.32 Mill viewers and a 0.9 rating
    Midseasonfinale had 1.44 Mill Viewers and a 0.5 rating

    Reign premiered to a 1.98 Mill Viewers and a 0.8 rating
    Midseasonfinale had 1.86 Mill Viwers and a 0.6 rating

    Ttp has been declining. Retention of Arrow is bad. Reigns retention was bad at the beginning, but now we know that it can stand alone.

  • Mark

    Eelna, it’s a bit unfair to base it on 1 episode

    the week previous TTP had 1.86M viewer and Reign had 1.65(both has 0.6)

  • ToXiX

    I don’t think CBS will renew The Crazy Ones. I also don’t think they will try launching as many comedies as this season, next season. I see Two and a Half Men renewed for a final season (perhaps 13 episodes). We still don’t know if Melissa McCarthy will want to do a 5th season of Mike & Molly. She’s getting more popular in movies, while Ashton Kutcher really doesn’t have a reason to not renew his contract with 2.5 men considering his movie career hasn’t been that great lately. (Jobs flopped even though I thought it was a great movie). CBS might hold Mike & Molly til midseason again as well if it’s renewed. I think Mom is certain to be renewed based on Chuck Lorre but The Millers I’m not so sure, we’ve seen CBS cancel shows that rated higher than TM after TBBT (Rob!). I also don’t see CBS cancelling 2 veteran comedies this season. Friends With Better Lives I can see getting TM’s slot after BBT in midseason but I don’t think Bad Teacher will debut in midseason it will probably be held til Summer. I just don’t see bad teacher being a success at all. As for Elementary I think it will be renewed but it will no doubt join Fridays or Sundays next season. I doubt CBS will move POI next season seeing as how they’ve had so many problems fixing that slot and POI is doing the best in that slot than the slot has done in years. Unless CBS picks up the new NCIS spin off next season I don’t see it moving.

  • eelna

    Mark,

    it had only 1.74 Mill Viewers, and Reign was up against The Sound of Music. All shows declined that night, and still the retention of Reign was better than TTP.

  • Mark

    MY mistake 1.76 for TTP last week, and i just check the average rating for episodes 3 – the last episode(I won’t count the first to because generally rule of thumb is show settle into there rating by week 3) and Reign has 1.71M viewers compared to 1.68 for TTP

    My guess what Reign has over TTP though is I believe it’s cheaper to produce, and it adds variety to the lineup(seems like the CW went with alot of scifi genre shows so in terms of renewing TTP might get cut because the station feels they have another similar style show). My guess though and this is a huge IF, but if TTP can hold it’s rating on Monday above 1.5M it will get considered for renewal, but if it’s ratings are similar to Heart of Dixie or Beauty and the Beast it’s toast.

  • Mark

    Eelina I can mark a decline in TTP numbers when it went up against baseball(then it started climbing back up

  • Mark

    My mistake about the baseball it aired the first 3 weeks of the show

  • Midnight

    TTP vs Reign is close enough that they could be in different positions at the end of the season. If TTP holds its current ratings on Monday with 0.5 to 0.6, and that is a pretty big if, while Reign rates about the same or slightly better on Thursday in the post TVD slot, TTP could be renewed. A self-starting 0.5-0.6 on Monday is better than a lead-in dependent 0.6-0.7 on Thursday. BATB taught the CW as much. Note that this assumes Star-Crossed tanks on Monday, which I suspect it will. This is also a good way for the CW to test TTP away from Arrow. Again, had they tested BATB original episodes away from TVD, they might have better been able to predict its 0.3s this season.

  • Hugo

    I agree with the CW predictions, the midseason schedule clearly indicated that Reign will be renewed over The Tomorrow People.

    ABC will renew The Goldbergs because it’s their best new sitcom. Nashville should be on the bubble, it’s doing OK-ish and a lot of new dramas failed.

    CBS will have some tough decisions to make next spring. I think they should axe 1 hour of sitcoms either on Monday or Thurday because they don’t have enough hits anymore. I would put The Millers on the bubble too. On the drama side, I think CBS will renew almost all of them except Hostages and it’s really hard the find which one is the weakest link so I would put all of them as Renewal Predicted, even The Mentalist which has been doing a lot better in the past few weeks.

    FOX will renew Brooklyn 99, unless it does worse than The Mindy Project after New Girl (I doubt it).

    I would put both Parks & Recreaction and Parenthood on the bubble. They have similar ratings and enough episodes for syndication, I don’t get why one is predicted renewed and the other canceled.

  • Noé

    When I see boring shows with good ratings like The Vampire Diaries and Reign, I’m sad.
    When I see a very good show with a not very good rating like The Tomorrow People, I’m sad too.
    Go The Tomorrow People! You can do it mondays!

  • Feedback

    Supernatural was already older than the network it aired on in Season 2. That’s a silly point to make.

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