Bubble Watch: CW: Dim Prospects For 'Beauty & the Beast' & 'Carrie'; 'Tomorrow People' Already Yesterday's News?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 14th, 2013

The Tomorrow People Pilot

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. Next up, The CW, which spiced up a dull month by finally releasing their midseason schedule.

The CW Fall Summary

Hart Of Dixie

After the February 10th airing, moves to Fridays @ 9 starting March 21st

Pro: Did okay thrown under The Voice; needs a fourth season for syndication. Even Nikita received a (sort of) fourth season. The CW seems committed to airing first-run shows on Fridays.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Beauty & the Beast

After the March 10th airing, goes on hiatus

Pro: Enough rookies could fail that The CW needs something for Fridays next season.

Con: The worst rated Monday – Thursday show on The CW. Being pulled off the air. Being thrown under the Olympics. As a second season show, the renewal would effectively be for two seasons.

Odds of renewal: 10%

The Originals

Pro: Considering it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in like The Blacklist, arguably the biggest (relative) hit of the season.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Supernatural

Pro: The #2 show on the network, despite all the timeslots it has had in the past. No public statements about costs getting out of control.

Con: The show is ancient. It is literally older than the network it airs on. Eventually, either the talent will want to leave or the costs will grow too high to be sustainable (even if it isn’t this year).

Odds of renewal: 95%

Arrow

Pro: Still holding strong in season 2.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Tomorrow People

After the March 12th airing, moves to Mondays @ 9 starting March 17th

Pro: Genre shows have survived on Mondays (Chuck, Heroes, Fringe, etc.) Whatever the minimum survival level on Mondays for The CW is, it isn’t very high.

Con: If it could only manage a 0.5 against The X-Factor this week, what will it manage opposite The Voice? (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.)

Odds of renewal: 20%

The Vampire Diaries

Pro: The #1 show on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Reign

Pro: It wasn’t moved at midseason. Now takes the pole position for “Show The CW renews because they don’t want to launch 4+ shows at once in Fall”. (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.)

Con: American Idol should be stronger competition than The X-Factor. Not a clear hit (its average is over three tenths less than Arrow/Supernatural/The Vampire Diaries/The Originals). If The 100 is a hit, things get interesting.

Odds of renewal: 70%

The Carrie Diaries

Pro: The Josh Schwartz name.

Con: The ratings have been terrible on Fridays. That it was scheduled for Fridays in the first place.

Odds of renewal: 5%

Nikita

Final Season

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This week’s other notable data points:

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. continued the rollercoaster by hitting a series low. I’m still not changing my prediction, as Paul Lee should survive through at least Summer and will have every reason to try and give this a reboot or three.

The CBS Thursday @9 comedy block continues to flounder, with The Crazy Ones tying its series low (except this time, it had a new The Big Bang Theory leading off the night) and Two and a Half Men doing no better… so I moved Mom to “On the Bubble”. Barring another midseason schedule announcement, we’ll get to CBS next week, but the short version is: I don’t see CBS cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows this season. One of them lives.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
The Tomorrow People CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Mom CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Reign CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed

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  • paddii

    So early renewals will most probably go out to SPN, TVD and Arrow. The Originals is obviously also renewed. BatB and TCD are obviously canceled. TTP has been moved to Monday which means it’s pretty much over. Stars Crossed will premiere on Monday. Well… bye. I think The 100 is really expensive to produce, so it really has to get some descent ratings. Unless this happens it’s a goner aswell. If it’s successful I’m sure they’ll renew The 100 and Reign and Reign could move to Fridays.

  • Laura

    @Mark – the 18-49 demo isn’t a toss up between TVD and Arrow (not yet, anyway. It could maybe start to happen in the spring, which would make things interesting) – TVD is the clear winner. From memory, Arrow has only beaten TVD in the 18-49 demo once this season so far (possibly twice, I can’t remember). TVD’s still a long way ahead at this point – so much so, that Arrow isn’t even the number 2 show right now – SPN is. And it’s literally only just taken over the Originals to become the number 3 show. Arrow got off to a bad start this season, ratings wise, but it seems to be recovering. Either way, absolutely none of this matters, every single one of the shows I’ve just mentioned are coming back anyway :)

  • Simon

    Arrow has been steady as a rock this season! You would’ve thought that The Tomorrow People would’ve benifited more from having the EXACT same genre lead-in, would the original President of the CW (forgot her name!) have allowed Arrow to air in the first place? Or would she have ‘damaned’ changes to make it appeaal more to female vewiers like she did during the first season of Nikita?

    Glad to see Once Upon A Time still at ‘Renewal Predicted’ even though the ratings are down. One of the benifits it has by returning in March is no NFL compition!

  • Isobel

    I don’t think star-crossed will be successful so it’ll probably be ttp’s ratings against the 100 and if the 100 is expensive to make then ttp could still be in a chance of renewal, every other network has two shows in cancellation predicated that I think will end up renewed just because I don’t think they want to have lots of new shows next season

  • Simon

    Isn’t Agents of SHEILD avraging the networks avrage? And is their only hit of the season so far.

  • Simon

    @Tom Shaw
    On your subject about cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows, they could cancel all of his shows sans The Big Bang Theory. Two and a Half Men needs to end, been on for far too long now and despite poular belief the decline in quality happened LONG before Charlie Sheen’s firing.

  • John A

    TVD boring and TTP great? Lmao TTP is awful.

  • Dan S

    I firmly believe next season CBS will cutback on comedies. Whether they want to keep the 2 hr block on Mon or Thur is debatable. I also strongly believe The Goldbergs will earn a sophomore season now being their highest rated freshman comedy given a full season. If it must remain on Tues couldn’t ABC at least move it to 8pm & shift AOS to 9pm ? As for B99 I’m 100% certain that show will be back. Why is it still cancellation predicted ?

  • David

    @Dan S

    Don’t worry about Brooklyn Nine-Nine. As long as it holds up in the Spring Tom will have enough evidence to move it out of cancellation predicted. The show isn’t airing right now and until it take over the Tuesday 9:30 slot it’ll probably will remain in cancellation predicted but as I said, there’s no reason to worry, Tom just needs more evidence.

  • CrimTV

    Completely confused why The Goldbergs and Brooklyn Nine-Nine are still likely cancellation when they should at least be on the bubble.

  • MeAndMrsJones

    Sometimes I really love TTP. Other times I feel like Julie Plec was in the room making the same horrible decisions she makes all the time. I’ll miss it if it doesn’t survive. I’m not a Reign sort of girl. The concept seems stale and overdone, but very very CW and fit the need of a certain audience that has come to expect those types of shows on the CW, so I get it. Maybe TTP will be revamped on Netflix or something sans Julie Plec. :D

  • Percysowner

    @Ashley I hope they save The Carrie Diaries. The network is SO full of genre shows, a teen soap is a nice change of pace.

    First, I am not making fun of you however the irony of this statement just bowls me over. I’m sure Dawn Ostroff is thankful that someone shares her vision. That said, having a mix of shows is probably a good idea.

  • tj

    Normally I agree with these tables and don’t comment. That being said I’m pretty sure the Tomorrow People will be renewed. I won’t give reasons or excuses but I’m at least 95% certain. Good luck to fans of all shows.

  • Greg

    If it’s between Reign and The Tomorrow People, then they should be renewing The Tomorrow People. Reign is only a match with Hart of Dixie (and probably not even), and that one will most likely get paired with America’s Next Top Model next season.

    That said, I have to assume that at least one of The 100 or Star-Crossed gets renewed (probably The 100).

  • Ray

    Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. is ABC’s only new freshman hit of the season. Dramas Lucky 7, Betrayal, and Once Upon a Time in Wonderland are all failures. Comedies Trophy Wife, Super Fun Night, Back in the Game are major failures as well. The Goldbergs is solid, but I wouldn’t call it a hit. ABC is in a mess. Killer Women, Mind Games, and Resurrection will likely suffer (Resurrection airing against some really tough competition). I hope ABC schedules a lot better next season, and improves their promotion as well. Agents of SHIELD, Once Upon a Time, Castle, Scandal, Grey’s Anatomy, Revenge, Last Man Standing, Modern Family, and The Middle are all locked in for renewal. For me, Nashville and The Goldbergs should be on the bubble. And The Neighbors, Trophy Wife, Super Fun Night, Back in the Game, Lucky 7, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, Betrayal all will be canceled.

  • PRW

    I REALLY don’t like this year’s bubble watch. Too many clear cut predictions this early. Oh and the ONLY CBS Thursday show even sniffing cancellation is 2.5M.

  • Shepherd

    I think I’m a little more optimistic in MOST cases.

    HOD Full Season renewal – 89% : Any sort of renewal – 98%.
    BATB – Full season Renewal – 2% : Any renewal(spackle)- 8% More eps than TCD.
    TCD – Any sort of renewal – 1% The decision was made to cancel it last year.
    Arrow – 100%.
    Supernatural – 99% Something could happen with contracts.
    TTP – Any renewal – 85% : Full season – 70% “Bubble Show”
    TO – 100%
    TVD – 99% Something could happen with contracts.
    Reign – Any renewal – 95% : Full Season – 85%.

    I don’t see more than One show (non HOD) getting picked up for a shortened season. If Reign doesn’t get a full season, it is most likely to get the shortened season. If Rein gets a full season, TTP is most likely to get the shortened season. My predictions leave room for one of T100 or SC doing well (probably T100).

  • PRW

    CBS Next Year

    Mon

    HIMYF
    2BG
    M&M
    Mom

    Thurs

    TBBT
    The Crazy Ones
    The Millers
    NEW TBA COMEDY

    Waiting in the wings: 13 episode final season of 2.5M (if not cancelled), 1-2 NEW TBA COMEDIES

  • DC

    There is a ratings floor at which the current production values for SHIELD are not viable, either from a profitability standpoint or as a storytelling tool for the MCU. Its not likely the show has reached that point yet, but it could still come by the end of May.

    Two past case histories are relevant to SHIELD:

    1. FOX’s Human Target, which was forced to get rid of everything that worked in Season One in an effort to retool and ended up not drawing in new viewers and alienating the existing base.

    2. The fallout from the poor reception for Marvel’s own The Hulk. To those that use long-term planning in the MCU as a defense for the show, there is a past case history of Marvel changing direction when a property doesn’t perform up to expectations.

  • alexjones

    you people say that reign is lead In dependant from TVD, and maybe it is but who’s to say that TTP isn’t lead in dependant from arrow which rates almost as highly as TVD especially since TTP and arrow are more compatible than TVD and reign.

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