Bubble Watch: CW: Dim Prospects For 'Beauty & the Beast' & 'Carrie'; 'Tomorrow People' Already Yesterday's News?

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

December 14th, 2013

The Tomorrow People Pilot

When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we're focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2014-15).  Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.

Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments. 

This Isn't The Renew/Cancel Index

Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.

As we get deeper into December and reruns and specials dominate, I thought I would take the opportunity to review why my predictions are what they are, on a network-by-network basis. Next up, The CW, which spiced up a dull month by finally releasing their midseason schedule.

The CW Fall Summary

Hart Of Dixie

After the February 10th airing, moves to Fridays @ 9 starting March 21st

Pro: Did okay thrown under The Voice; needs a fourth season for syndication. Even Nikita received a (sort of) fourth season. The CW seems committed to airing first-run shows on Fridays.

Odds of renewal: 95%

Beauty & the Beast

After the March 10th airing, goes on hiatus

Pro: Enough rookies could fail that The CW needs something for Fridays next season.

Con: The worst rated Monday – Thursday show on The CW. Being pulled off the air. Being thrown under the Olympics. As a second season show, the renewal would effectively be for two seasons.

Odds of renewal: 10%

The Originals

Pro: Considering it doesn’t have The Voice as a lead-in like The Blacklist, arguably the biggest (relative) hit of the season.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Supernatural

Pro: The #2 show on the network, despite all the timeslots it has had in the past. No public statements about costs getting out of control.

Con: The show is ancient. It is literally older than the network it airs on. Eventually, either the talent will want to leave or the costs will grow too high to be sustainable (even if it isn’t this year).

Odds of renewal: 95%

Arrow

Pro: Still holding strong in season 2.

Odds of renewal: 100%

The Tomorrow People

After the March 12th airing, moves to Mondays @ 9 starting March 17th

Pro: Genre shows have survived on Mondays (Chuck, Heroes, Fringe, etc.) Whatever the minimum survival level on Mondays for The CW is, it isn’t very high.

Con: If it could only manage a 0.5 against The X-Factor this week, what will it manage opposite The Voice? (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Cancellation Predicted”.)

Odds of renewal: 20%

The Vampire Diaries

Pro: The #1 show on the network.

Odds of renewal: 100%

Reign

Pro: It wasn’t moved at midseason. Now takes the pole position for “Show The CW renews because they don’t want to launch 4+ shows at once in Fall”. (Speaking of which, I moved it to “Renewal Predicted”.)

Con: American Idol should be stronger competition than The X-Factor. Not a clear hit (its average is over three tenths less than Arrow/Supernatural/The Vampire Diaries/The Originals). If The 100 is a hit, things get interesting.

Odds of renewal: 70%

The Carrie Diaries

Pro: The Josh Schwartz name.

Con: The ratings have been terrible on Fridays. That it was scheduled for Fridays in the first place.

Odds of renewal: 5%

Nikita

Final Season

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This week’s other notable data points:

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. continued the rollercoaster by hitting a series low. I’m still not changing my prediction, as Paul Lee should survive through at least Summer and will have every reason to try and give this a reboot or three.

The CBS Thursday @9 comedy block continues to flounder, with The Crazy Ones tying its series low (except this time, it had a new The Big Bang Theory leading off the night) and Two and a Half Men doing no better… so I moved Mom to “On the Bubble”. Barring another midseason schedule announcement, we’ll get to CBS next week, but the short version is: I don’t see CBS cancelling two Chuck Lorre shows this season. One of them lives.

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Ironside NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
The Tomorrow People CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Cancellation Predicted
Raising Hope Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
Sean Saves The World NBC Cancellation Predicted
The Crazy Ones CBS On The Bubble
Mom CBS On The Bubble
Two and a Half Men CBS On The Bubble
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewal Predicted
Mike & Molly CBS Renewal Predicted
The Millers CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: LA CBS Renewal Predicted
Person Of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewal Predicted
Arrow CW Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
The Originals CW Renewal Predicted
Reign CW Renewal Predicted
Supernatural CW Renewal Predicted
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
The New Girl Fox Renewal Predicted
Chicago Fire NBC Renewal Predicted
Grimm NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
Parks & Recreation NBC Renewal Predicted
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed

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  • Brio

    For Supernatural, I would add in “pro” that the leads Jared and Jensen already signed to Season 10. I would say it’s 99% of chance of renewal, saving 1% just in case something drastic happens in the second half of the season.

  • eelna

    It’s really pathetic.

    TTP fans attack Reign.
    Beasties fans attack The Carrie Diaries.
    (probably without watching it)

    Really I love all four shows, but I prefer Reign and TCD. Just because YOUR shows decline and fall, you don’t have to say stupid things about shows you don’t like or you never watched.

    I’m crossing fingers, that all fans get a proper ending of their show.

    And give Star-Crossed a chance, it can turn out to be good. Promos always do look bad.

    The 100: definitly a hit!!!!

  • The Watcher

    CBS 2014-2015:

    MONDAY
    8:00 – 2 Broke Girls
    8:30 – The Crazy Ones
    9:00 – NEW COMEDY
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    TUESDAY
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NEW DRAMA
    10:00 – Person of Interest

    WEDNESDAY
    8:00 – Survivor
    9:00 – Criminal Minds
    10:00 – CSI

    THURSDAY
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – NEW COMEDY
    9:00 – NCIS: Los Angeles
    10:00 – NEW DRAMA

    FRIDAY
    8:00 – NEW DRAMA / Undercover Boss
    9:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

    SUNDAY
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Elementary
    10:00 – The Good Wife

    Mid-season: Mike & Molly and The Millers.

    Thoughts ?

  • Melanie

    I can’t put Reign and Tomorrow People anywhere other than the bubble. Mainly because no decision is going to be made until the CW sees some numbers for the 100 and Star-Crossed.

    Predict cancellation for: BATB 95% certain; TCD 70% certain (I still think that if they need Friday spackle they will go with TCD and not BATB)

    Bubble: Reign 60/40 in favor of renewal; Tomorrow People 50/50.

    Predict Renewal for: HOD 85% certain it will be back. If its ratings only drop by about a tenth(0.3) I think that w/ the’ Friday factor’ that will be acceptable, then it will be renewed for a full season. But if it completely tanks (0.2 – 0.1), it will be a shortened final season.

    Supernatural 100% it will be back for season 10 – the leads are already contracted for it.
    Arrow, TVD and The Originals — 100% renewed. I wouldn’t be surprised if the CW hands out early renewals to those 4 shows in February.

  • Lukes

    I think the CW won’t make any decision before well into spring, there is not a clear winner yet between Tomorrow People and Reign, and it will want to see what happens with the other two new shows. They will consider the 4 shows together and not 2+2.

  • CrimTV

    @The Watcher

    CBS will not hold The Millers for mid-season.

  • Brandy

    @greg TM only runs into mid Nov so Reign & HoD could be paired then.Cause unless Reign,TTP really improve thier ratings,if they’re renewed, they’ll move to fri anyway.Also why would they renew TTP which this week got a 0.5 out of a 1.2 over Reign which twice has gotten 0.6 out of 1.0?TTP will have heavy completion on Mon with The Following,Blacklist,The Voice ect.If its already at 0.5, what will it do in spring with a untested leadin if it falls in spring?Arrow & TTP are very compatible yet TTP has bad retention.Reign has actually grown in total viewers and twice got 0.7.TTP hasn’t.TTP has declined for a lot of its run already ,going from 0.9 to 0.5 in eight weeks.Reign went from 0.8 to 0.6,0.6, 0.6,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.6.Reign also does better in A18-34/W18-34 and does well online and does wel in social media,better than TTP Reign #8,TTP-# 10 of top 25 new shows on social media.Plus,CW also has a superhero show The Flash certain to be picked up for next season that could replace TTP and I don’t know but three superhero show at once might be too much.

  • Brandy

    I think BatB,TTP,CD (sadly) will be cancelled.I don’t think SC or the 100 will do well but it’s too early to know if I’m right.I think HoD will get a full fourth final season and Reign renewed.
    I’m glad Reign,HoD,BBT,2 Broke Girls,VD,OUAT,Revenge,Scandal certain to be renewed but it makes me really really sad to see Carrie Diaries,Wonderland certain cancellation .

  • Dan S

    I guess what bugs me about the bubble watch is there are only 3 shows on the bubble all CBS comedies. There are a lot more shows from both renewal predicted & cancellation predicted should be on the bubble. My personal fav P&R really is in trouble ratings wise. Unless it’s numbers improve I’m afraid it’s finished since it’s now reached syndication. Shouldn’t other shows like B99 & Goldbergs at least be on the bubble too ? Even Elementary still 2 seasons away from syndication can’t really be considered a shoo for renewal yet with its lackluster ratings either.

  • feinn

    Reign is not doing that well. What happens next season it moves to Monday or Friday and falls below .5.

  • Brandy

    Also makes me sad to see Nashville as cancellation prediction predicted.I think it’ll be renewed though.

  • StevenD

    I’m kind of hoping/expecting that NBC will only look at Parks numbers in its new time slot (8:30) starting in January

  • catalina0

    Reign retention from TVD has been increasing. Last week they retained 76% of TVD total viewers (TVD 2,438,000 vs. Reign 1,855,00).

    The Tomorrow People retention from Arrow has decreased. Last week they retained 48% of Arrow’s total viewers (Arrow 3,023,000 vs. TTP 1,455,000).

    The CW also looks at the 18-34 women demo. Reigns women 18-34 is greater than TTP AND Arrow. Last week women 18-34 ratings: Reign .08, Arrow .07, TTP .04.

    The above ratings information is from the Futon Critic site.

  • The Watcher

    @ CrimTV

    I know it’s very unlikely but The Millers would collapse without The Big Bang Theory lead-in. The Crazy Ones and Mom are more stable in ratings.
    I think CBS could move both The Crazy Ones and The Millers to Monday and only premiere one new comedy after TBBT.

  • RJC

    “I REALLY don’t like this year’s bubble watch. Too many clear cut predictions this early. Oh and the ONLY CBS Thursday show even sniffing cancellation is 2.5M.”

    The Crazy Ones dipped below 2.0 this week even with a new TBBT at 8. I think it’s fair to say it’s “sniffing” cancellation at the very least. CBS is going to be less tolerant of ratings like that for its comedies than the other networks.

  • Brandy

    @Feinn, to a certain extent you’re right on both counts.But I don’t think CW will expect much from fri next season.Also, right now Reign is the fifth highest rated cw show after VD,SPN,TO,Arrow and it’s doing better than BatB,CD,HoD,Nikita,TTP.I doubt it’ll move to Mon as I think CW will fix Mon next season with SPN or TO and a new show.

  • Melanie

    @RJC Yeah, you know the Bubble Watch discussion used to be more fun. I don’t like this either.
    Its just silly to have only those three on the bubble when clearly the networks have not made their decisions yet.

  • Austin

    As always, I must disagree with Parenthood on Likely Cancellation. It’s pretty on the bubble right now. It’s doing okay on Thursday nights considering the terrible lead-in they have. It has not been continually dropping either. It’s been pretty consistent pulling a 1.2 or 1.3 every week. If only it would have stayed on Tuesdays, it would get in the 2’s.

  • HV

    The fates of TTP and Reign depend on two things:
    1. How well TTP does on Mondays.
    2. How well the midseason shows do.
    By early April, after The 100 has aired a few episodes, I think that their fates will be known.

  • Doug

    There will likely be an announcement about 2.5 Men in January. It’s carries far too much salary to be stuck at a 2.0. Mom stays, TCO goes. CBS will have no choice but to keep underperformers if they want to keep their current schedule.

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