CBS: 'Elementary' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 7th, 2014

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


newyearbear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 5, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.65
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.73
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 0.81
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20
Hostages :oops:
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :)
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :)
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Mom :) :) :) :)
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
How I Met Your Mother final season

-
It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

CBS hasn't canceled a second season drama since Shark in 2008, and sophomore drama Elementary's ratings are far from the calamity that would cause them to consider cancelling it, so it's certainly safe for renewal for next season (and at least the following season as well). Edit/Update: And CBS hasn't canceled a veteran drama airing Monday-Thursday since the 2008-9 season. Yet more historical precedent.

The observant will note that CSI's prediction was also moved to "certain to be renewed". The bear's holding that for a future headline.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
-
Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Sam migicovsky

    Is mentalist produced by cbs? Is it conceivable it could be picked up by another network like medium was or if cancelled,it would be done?

  • THE OLD MAN

    Elementary is a lock for renewal

    LONG LIVE THE GOOD WIFE!

  • THE OLD MAN

    @ sam magicovsky

    The Mentalist is produced by Warner Bros

  • MARTY

    sam also medium was a cbs owned show canceled by nbc

  • Sam migicovsky

    Is mentalist owned by cbs? Any chance another network would pick it up like medium was, years ago?

  • Sam migicovsky

    Sorry about the duplicate thread

  • Herb Finn

    @PRW

    You clearly don’t understand television programming,ratings, viewership patterns and trends.

  • epidrone

    Mentalist is not CBS owned.

    Yay, Elementary. Most underrated show on television.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    If you add the 1.0 rating Hostages got into the schedule, all the other shows go up around 8%

    *Disclaimer*
    While I do not know the EXACT methodology used in this index, I think it works out as I simply averaged Hostages 1.0 average into the table.

  • Ultima

    @Sam Migicovsky
    Any chance another network would pick it up like medium was, years ago?

    Doubtful.

    Medium was a very rare case. Its ratings were right around NBC’s scripted average, but it ended up being canceled due to NBC needing five hours a week for The Jay Leno Show.

  • omabin

    The C3 argument that Ultima made is the most relevant argument people can make about Elementary. The whole idea that it won’t be cancelled just because CBS doesn’t can sophmore shows is ridiculous. It will be renewed but not because of that.

    One thing I don’t get is why everyone assumes that Blue Bloods is so safe. Unless it scores a major syndication deal, I don’t see why CBS would let go The Good Wife instead of it, even with the slight ratings advantage it has (considering a Friday factor, that is). Do we really think CBS will replace both Sunday shows in the same season? Of course this could all be mute discussion and CBS can end up cancelling either Intelligence or the second comedy hour, not canning any of these. I just find it puzzling that everyone puts The Good Wife and its huge syndication deal on the bubble while accepting that Blue Bloods and its still non existent deal are safe.

  • Bob

    PRW,
    WTH?????? Survivor last season? Big Brother last season? These shows make CBS money. Are you on drugs today??????

  • PRW

    Final seasons are placed on aging shows or shows starting downward trend in quality.

    10-13 episode seasons are easier to digest for the 18-49 demo that the networks crave.

    Fall has way more holidays than spring/summer which is why fall shows get 10 and the others receive 13.

    Broadcast either goes this route or dies out. Plus with shorter seasons nothing is cancelled until after season 1 has aired.

  • MARTY

    omamabin bluebloods and hawaii 5-0 do ok for fridays and both need another season for 100 episodes, and it could be that goodwife has maxed out its syndication value, as it has 100 plus episodes. we dont the deal cbs has for it

  • PRW

    Bob,

    I would prefer to have them both once a year but let’s be honest Survivor, Big Brother, and Amazing Race are all aging and ratings are down. Not to mention BB is still in SD.

  • MARTY

    omabin sorry bad typing

  • Ram510

    Elementary needs to be cancelled! I think it’s numbers will be even worse come spring maybe down to a 1.3

  • Ultima

    @PRW
    Final seasons are placed on aging shows or shows starting downward trend in quality.

    You do realize that this is a business, right? Networks renew their most profitable shows, yes, even if those shows are aging and declining in quality.

    10-13 episode seasons are easier to digest for the 18-49 demo that the networks crave.

    Nonsense. Out of the sixteen broadcast dramas that averaged a 2.0+ Live+SD A18-49 for new episodes last season, only one had fewer than 20 episodes. The ten highest rated comedies last season all had 22+ episodes. Clearly audiences in the A18-49 demo don’t have a problem with full season shows.

    Broadcast either goes this route or dies out.

    Nonsense. Broadcast ratings have been declining for more than three decades, yet they’re still around.

    Plus with shorter seasons nothing is cancelled until after season 1 has aired.

    That’s some hardcore delusion right there. If a show does terrible and the network has something to replace it with, then it’s going to get pulled.

  • omabin

    @Marty,

    The Good Wife makes CBS $2,000,000 per episode, it’s one of the best syndication deals around, so we do know what it makes them. I understand that Blue Bloods does fine enough for Fridays but unless it gets a major syndication deal I don’t understand how it’s more profitable. You put Elementary there instead of it and you will get comparable ratings, give or take a couple of tenths.

    Besides, do you really think CBS will replace both of its Sunday shows at once?

    I don’t think it’s impossible that TGW is cancelled, I just think at this moment is just as much of a bubble show as Blue Bloods – it could go either way for both (though I am sure at least one survives).

  • Ultima

    @PRW
    let’s be honest Survivor, Big Brother, and Amazing Race are all aging and ratings are down

    CBS only has two dramas with higher ratings than Survivor.

    CBS only has four dramas with higher ratings than The Amazing Race.

    Relative ratings are what matter, not absolute ratings. It’s irrelevant that their ratings are declining as long as they maintain their strength relative to the rest of the network.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures