CBS: 'Elementary' Is Certain To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew CBS Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 7th, 2014

Click this link for the latest CBS renewal / cancellation information:


newyearbear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 5, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
The Good Wife :| :| :| 0.57
The Mentalist :cry: :cry: 0.65
Elementary :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.73
We Are Men* canceled 0.74
The Crazy Ones :) :) :) :) 0.81
Two and a Half Men :) :) :) :) 0.90
The Millers :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Big Bang Theory :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.20
Hostages :oops:
Blue Bloods (F) :) :) :) :)
Hawaii Five-0 (F) :) :) :) :)
CSI :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Person Of Interest :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Mom :) :) :) :)
Mike & Molly :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCIS: Los Angeles :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Criminal Minds :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
2 Broke Girls :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
NCIS :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
How I Met Your Mother final season

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

CBS hasn't canceled a second season drama since Shark in 2008, and sophomore drama Elementary's ratings are far from the calamity that would cause them to consider cancelling it, so it's certainly safe for renewal for next season (and at least the following season as well). Edit/Update: And CBS hasn't canceled a veteran drama airing Monday-Thursday since the 2008-9 season. Yet more historical precedent.

The observant will note that CSI's prediction was also moved to "certain to be renewed". The bear's holding that for a future headline.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Boiler

    With the viewership Elementary gets and its DVR bumps it would be absurd to cancel it. So I hope you are right in prediction

  • PRW

    Ultima,

    You have to hope the next trend first or be fired for not doing it. That trend is shorter seasons that makes each viewing an event. If it’s just another episode in a 20+ episode season you can miss a couple. If it’s one in a 10-13 episode season you either miss it or have to avoid social media until you catch it making it where more people watch it live to avoid spoilers.

  • Ultima

    @omabin
    Besides, do you really think CBS will replace both of its Sunday shows at once?

    People said the same thing a few years ago about CBS cancelling two Friday shows and then were blindsided when Ghost Whisperer wasn’t renewed (even though it was a fairly obvious cancellation).

    There’s plenty of good arguments to be made for renewing The Good Wife, but that one is just as ridiculous as saying that Elementary won’t be canceled because it’s a second season show.

  • MARTY

    omabin true about the syndication numbers for goodwife. what i mean is we dont know for how many episodes that is for, it could be for the 112 they will have for this season when its over, if its for more the it will renewed, only cbs and its syndication partners know. as for bluebloods cbs loves for its own dramas to have 100 episdoes

  • The_Mentalist-Fan

    I hope “The Mentalist” will tie up the remaining loose ends before the season is over: What happened to Kristina Frye or Visualize, were all Blake Association members identified and will Erica Flynn be arrested once and for all? Additionally I want the “He is mar”-clue and the ‘Red John – Visualise’-link explained. I don’t want one of my favorite series to last forever, but I want closure and answers in the end. If most of the questions will answered in the sixth season then the series could end and I’m not sad at all.

  • omabin

    @Ultima

    Fair point, I accept historical precedent as evidence that something can be done. I think I sounded too absolute when mentioning this. I would never suggest that TGW would be renewed solely based on that but I certainly think that it doesn’t hurt either if profitability is roughly the same for both shows (which I do doubt anyway). Two years ago, I still believe that played a role in choosing New York over Miami even though syndication deals and costs were probably more relevant. I didn’t mean to sound as if this was the main reason for it to be renewed, juts that it helped the balance too and I don’t think that’s a ridiculous argument.

  • Ultima

    @PRW
    If it’s just another episode in a 20+ episode season you can miss a couple.

    Why is that a problem? TV isn’t the #1 priority for most people. It’s actually nice to be able to miss an episode and still be able to watch next week. Plus, those are the types of shows that tend to repeat better. You make a lot more money airing a show 50-72 times a year than you do airing one 10-13 times a year.

  • Charmed

    @Ultima Ghost Whisperer wasn’t an obvious cancellation, most people expected it to be renewed. I was shocked and upset when it was cancelled, and even more upset after ABC didn’t pick it up.

  • Kia

    At PRW – do these new shows actually exist and are in production or are they ideas?

  • epidrone

    What is there to indicate Elementary will be at 1.3 in the spring? Its live numbers are mediocre, but it’s been super steady.

    CBS would be stupid to cancel it. It has an audience and the highest C3 lift on broadcast. Why wouldn’t they move it first?

  • Rebecca

    I’m glad The Millers has those green smileys – really enjoying that show. I wish Mom had the smileys, too. Maybe some day soon.

  • Ultima

    @Charmed
    Ghost Whisperer wasn’t an obvious cancellation

    Sure it was. CBS had three freshman shows hit (NCIS:LA, The Good Wife and Undercover Boss), so they had to cancel three veterans (Cold Case, Numbers and one more).

    The only realistic options were Ghost Whisperer and Medium; given that they had very similar ratings, CBS was obviously going to keep the show that they owned.

    most people expected it to be renewed

    Most people thought that CBS wouldn’t cancel two of their Friday shows. With Numbers certain to be canceled, everybody assumed that Ghost Whisperer was safe, when in reality it was their most vulnerable show (which was obvious looking at the big picture, but not so much if you just look night-by-night or timeslot-by-timeslot).

  • Dee

    With network pilot season about to shift into high gear, this is the time of year I like to let my imagination conjure up the fall schedules of my dreams. These are entirely self-serving and, since they are never going to happen anyway, I feel no obligation to limit myself to only product that is already in development. So, for the fun of it, here is my CBS schedule for next fall:

    Sunday:
    7:00 – 60 Minutes
    8:00 – The Amazing Race
    9:00 – Survivor
    10:00 – The Good Wife
    Monday:
    8:00 – AMY FARRAH FOWLER. Big Bang Theory spinoff
    8:30 – Two Broke Girls
    9:00 – HOW I MET YOUR FATHER
    9:30 – Mom
    10:00 – THE ADVOCATE
    Tuesday:
    8:00 – NCIS
    9:00 – NCIS:L.A.
    10:00 – Person of Interest
    Wednesday:
    8:00 – Intelligence
    9:00 – NCIS: NEW ORLEANS
    10:00 – Criminal Minds
    Thursday:
    8:00 – The Big Bang Theory
    8:30 – THE ODD COUPLE
    9:00 – The Millers
    9:30 – The Crazy Ones
    10:00 – Elementary
    Friday:
    8:00 – Hawaii Five-0
    9:00 – CSI
    10:00 – Blue Bloods

  • truliahart

    Dee. I like the idea of an Amy Farrah Fowler show and The Odd Couple. Looks like a great lineup. You’re hired!

  • Dave

    CBS 2014-2015:

    How I met Your Father
    2 Broke Girls
    Mike and Molly
    The Millers
    NCIS:LA

    NCIS
    NCIS:NO (New Drama)
    Person of Interest

    Survivor
    Criminal Minds
    New Drama

    TBBT
    New Comedy
    2.5 Men (Final Season)
    Mom
    New Drama

    Undercover Boss
    CSI
    Hawaii Five-0
    Blue Bloods

    Amazing Race
    The Good Wife
    CSI

  • epidrone

    Not a bad schedule, Dave, but it’s hard to picture TGW beating Elementary to a renewal. It defies logic and Moonves’ MO.

  • epidrone

    Or H50 before Elementary, for that matter.

  • Dave

    Wow I forgot all about that show @epidrone.

    In that case, I guess it should stay on Thursdays at 10p or Sundays at 9p is TGW is cancelled.

  • PRW

    Kia, most of the all caps shows in each of my schedules have either been ordered OR have been contracted as a put pilot (basically the channel must air the pilot but I think they sometimes get around it by paying a large fee if they don’t pick it up). On the schedules that are heavier in new shows (NBC, CW, Fox) the ones that aren’t ordered or a put pilot are in the script or pilot stage currently according to Futon Critic.

  • Thunder

    If CBS decides to axe The Mentalist, it would be a nice pick-up for a rival network. Strong ratings in a dog of a time slot. The show has loyal fan base and has been recently refreshed.

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