NBC: 'Community' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 7th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 5, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.73
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.82
Parenthood :| :| :| 1.18
Community :| :| :| 1.18
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Parks & Recreation :| :| :|
Revolution :| :| :|
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Blacklist renewed

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

Last season Community returned to the NBC lineup above the NBC Fall scripted adults 18-49 ratings average (1.9 vs. ~1.8).

Not so this season. Community's 1.3 premiere rating was well below the ~1.6 Fall 2013 average for NBC scripted shows. Until the bear sees some more 2014 NBC ratings he's not going any more pessimistic than a "toss up" for the show, but it's certainly in a far more precarious position than it was at the start of its run last season.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Jeff (Canada)

    I think Community is in a pretty good situation. SSTW and MJF will implode on their own, so Community will be ahead of them in the race to avoid the Bear. The only variable will be how the 2 new sitcoms airing after The Voice do in the spring. Until then I’d say Community (along with Parks) are the frontrunners for sitcom renewal on NBC.

  • Chris J

    It’s difficult to compare this year with last year for NBC sitcoms.

    Community actually debuted as the number 1 sitcom on the network. It’s season average so far is a 1.31, while Parks is at a 1.18 and the Michael J Fox show (boosted by a strong premier) is at a 1.27.

    At this point I think by the end of the season the ratings of Community and Parks are going to be neck and neck.

  • Dennis

    If Revolution Holds 1.4 , and even down to a 1.3 no further…
    I think it will be renewed and shipped to fridays

  • Ultima

    @Chris J
    It’s difficult to compare this year with last year for NBC sitcoms.

    I think it’s easy.

    Last year, many people ignored the dreadful ratings that NBC’s sitcoms were getting relative to the rest of the network and assumed that they would renew up to a half dozen comedies. NBC cancelled almost everything.

    This year, many people are ignoring exactly the same thing as well as what NBC did last season and are assuming that just because a show is at the top, it’s going to get renewed. NBC is probably going to cancel all of the sitcoms currently on the schedule.

  • Dan

    Community is in a really bad place. It lost 19% of it’s viewers and a demo point from the first episode to the second so some of the people who sampled it left. It will face increasing competition in the coming weeks and has a history of trending down after it’s premiere. By Feb 1 all indications look like it will easily be in the cancelation predicted category.

    Even if SSTW and TMJFS keep declining into 0.7’s or lower that won’t save Community if it also falls below 1.0. Even at 1.0 I think NBC would be foolish not to try to do better with a new show. IMHO Community needs to climb to 1.5 or higher to relatively safe.

  • reidjr

    Jeff

    I think both will get another season my guess is Community gets a final 6-8 episode order while Parks and Rec i can see getting a 12 episode order.

  • Jon

    Crap ratings are still crap ratings. Why renew a show doing these kind of ratings even if it is your highest rated sitcom on the network. What does that say about the rest of them. I have to believe you roll the dice on all new sitcoms and hope you can get at least one hit. Its more than they have now.

  • One

    I’m w/ the Bubble Watch on this – it’ll probably come down to whether they want two hours of comedy next year. Unless spotupj is right and the premiere was inflated, in which case – look out below, gentlemen.

  • PRW

    How I would schedule NBC for 2014-2015

    **All fall orders are for 10 episodes and all Spring and Summer orders are for 13 episodes unless otherwise noted**

    SUNDAY

    F: Football Night in America, Sunday Night Football
    Sp: SPORTS NIGHT IN AMERICA, The Apprentice
    Su: SOCCER NIGHT IN AMERICA, MLS GAME OF THE WEEK

    MONDAY

    F: The Voice*
    Sp: America’s Got Talent*
    Su: Biggest Loser, Last Comic Standing

    * 3 hours, voting goes on until Sunday evening as to cash in on DVR and reairs through the week on other NBCU channels

    TUESDAY

    F: Community (10 episodes + 2 hour series finale movie), WELCOME TO SWEDEN, Parenthood, EMERALD CITY
    Sp: Parks & Rec, TOOKEN, Psych (Moved from USA, final season), MURDER SHE WROTE
    Su: (One Sophomore comedy), WORKING THE ENGELS, NEW DRAMEDY, PLYMOUTH

    WEDNESDAY

    F: CONSTANTINE, The Blacklist (22 episodes), SVU (22 episode final season)
    Sp: Crossbones, The Blacklist (22 episodes), SVU (22 episode final season)
    Su: CLEOPATRA, CONCEPTION, PARADISE

    THURSDAY

    F: Grimm, Dracula, Chicago Fire
    Sp: Revolution, Hannibal, Chicago PD
    Su: OUTBREAK, TIN MAN, THE CONSPIRACY

    FRIDAY

    F: A TO Z, MARRY ME, NEW DRAMEDY, Dateline NBC
    Sp: BAD JUDGE, BITCH OFF THE OL’ BLOCK, Hollywood Game Night, Dateline NBC
    Su: MAYBE IT’S ME, THE BASS PLAYER, The Million Second Quiz, Dateline NBC

    SATURDAY

    Sports and NBCU encores (mainly from NBC, Syfy, and USA)

  • Teag

    I am in the camp that thinks Community and Parks will be the only comedies NBC renews.

  • Matt

    Maybe if they had advertised more for Community, more viewers would have watched it. I don’t remember seeing any news for it on NBC until my DVR (which is set to record new shows) I saw it set to record for it. Otherwise I would have missed it.

    I hear a lot of my friends who talk about Community whom I rarely hear talk about other shows. I love the show.

    NBC how about doing a lot more advertising for it like you do with some of your lame shows where I see almost 1 commercial for them every commercial break.

  • Kitsune

    PRW, please stop. You can’t possibly be human.

  • Eve

    @PRW

    You must be crazy.

  • Chris J

    @Ultima
    @Dan

    Well I think it’s highly possible NBC cancels all their current sitcoms.

    There’s no reason for them to keep shows that are averaging a 1.2 when cheap reality shows could rate better.

    NBC will probably start with a blank slate next season to rebuild Thursdays since all of their comedies are pretty much dead at this point.

  • PRW

    Broadcast needs something new or they will continue to falter. Which means shorter seasons and year round programming

  • THE OLD MAN

    I’m taking a wait & see attitude, but really think they should cancel all their comedies & start anew.

  • Kissan

    This is my schedule for NBC 2014/2015:

    Monday

    8:00-The Voice(fall)/Celebrity Apprentice(winter)/The Voice(spring)
    10:00-The Odyssey(new series)

    Tuesday

    8:00-About A Boy
    8:30-Marry Me(new series)
    9:00-The Voice(fall)/Sing Off(winter)/The Voice(spring)
    10:00-Outbreak(new series)

    Wednesday

    8:00-Maya Rudolph Variety Show(new series)
    8:30-Tooken(new series)
    9:00-Chicago Fire
    10:00-Chicago PD/Murder She Wrote Reboot

    Thursday

    8:00-Biggest Loser/Space Race(new reality competition series)
    9:00-The Blacklist
    10:00-Tin Man(new series)

    Friday

    8:00-Law & Order:SVU
    9:00-Grimm
    10:00-The Wolfman/Hannibal

    Sunday(Midseason)

    8:00-The Bible A.D. Series(March-April)/Assistance & Bad Judge(two new comedies)
    9:00-Working With Engels(new series)
    9:30-Welcome To Sweden(new series)
    10:00-Parenthood(15 episode final season)

    Believe, Crisis, Revolution, Community, Parks & Rec, SSTW, MJF Show and Dracula cancelled.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    I actually think that LONGER seasons would help broadcasters out. Not for rookie shows, but for veterans with proven strength. Give them a 28 episode season. That is 4-6 less repeats than usual, which gives people 4-6 less chances to forget it is on. NBC renewed The Office for a season 4 of 30, yes 30! episodes, but it was cut short by the writer’s strike and only got 19 done. The next year they had 28 episodes (2 post superbowl). The answer is not less content, but more.

  • Ultima

    @PRW
    Broadcast needs something new or they will continue to falter.

    Except that the broadcast networks aren’t faltering (at least as a whole), they’re still the top four networks, by far.

    Viewership is down due to audience fragmentation and there’s virtually nothing they can do about that unless they get Congress to ban bundling and force cable into an a la carte system.

    The cable networks and spanish language broadcast networks are suffering from audience fragmentation as well, so it’s not as if the big four are in any danger of not being the kings of the ever-flattening hill.

    Which means shorter seasons

    Their revenue model is based around getting shows into syndication, shorter seasons does nothing to accomplish that. Streaming has made shorter seasons more viable, but the big money is still going to be in selling shows with 88-100+ episodes to local affiliates and cable networks.

  • Ultima

    Viewership is down due to audience fragmentation and there’s virtually nothing they can do about that unless they get Congress to ban bundling and force cable into an a la carte system.

    I should add that there’s very little chance of this actually happening. 21st Century Fox, Comcast and Disney are all heavily invested in cable networks.

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