NBC: 'Community' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 7th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 5, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.73
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.82
Parenthood :| :| :| 1.18
Community :| :| :| 1.18
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Parks & Recreation :| :| :|
Revolution :| :| :|
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Blacklist renewed

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

Last season Community returned to the NBC lineup above the NBC Fall scripted adults 18-49 ratings average (1.9 vs. ~1.8).

Not so this season. Community's 1.3 premiere rating was well below the ~1.6 Fall 2013 average for NBC scripted shows. Until the bear sees some more 2014 NBC ratings he's not going any more pessimistic than a "toss up" for the show, but it's certainly in a far more precarious position than it was at the start of its run last season.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • reidjr

    Patrick Ausgewahlt

    If you look at this year how manys erieswould do well with 30 you migh end up with 10 and thats about it.

  • AllOfHerTw!st

    Go Human Beings!

    #sixseasonsandamovie

  • omabin

    Personally, I would renew Parks and Community and use their announced final seasons to bridge the reality cycles on Thursday. For the remainder of the season, 1 comedy hour would be enough.

    I would do:
    Monday
    Fall: The Voice+New Drama
    Winter: The Sing-Off+Fear Factor
    Spring: The Voice+New Drama

    Tuesday
    Fall: The Voice+New Comedies+Chicago Fire
    Winter: Hollywood Game Night+The Apprentice+Chicago Fire R
    Spring: The Voice + New Comedies + Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    Fall, Winter, Spring: Maya Rudolph Variety Show + Chicago PD + SVU

    [Note: This assumes Chicago PD actually works. If it doesn’t work, I say they should leave SVU where it is and simply move Revolution to 10pm]

    Thursday
    Fall: The Biggest Looser + The Blacklist + New Drama
    Winter: Community + Parks and Recreation + The Blacklist + New Drama
    Spring: The Biggest Looser + The Blacklist + New Drama

    Friday
    Fall: Dateline + Grimm + Revolution
    Winter: Dateline + Dateline + Grimm (R)
    Spring: Dateline + Grimm + Revolution

    Sunday
    Fall+Winter: Sports
    Spring: Space Race + Parenthood

  • PRW

    Ultima, I thought of that two. Bundle two shows of 4 seasons (40-52 episodes a piece depending) and you have hit that 80 benchmark and keeps shows from airing two different sets of seasons at once.

  • PRW

    And let’s be honest the 80-88 episode benchmark for syndication is outdated just like Nielsen.

  • PurpleDrazi

    That is 4-6 less repeats than usual, which gives people 4-6 less chances to forget it is on.

    That also means 4-6 more filler episodes that people think are crap and make them want to change the channel.

  • PRW

    PurpleDrazi is correct. 22-6 is 16. With the way the fall schedule is that is too much so you do 10 there and 13 the other two seasons. No filler, every episode is an event.

  • Ultima

    @PRW
    And let’s be honest the 80-88 episode benchmark for syndication is outdated just like Nielsen.

    :roll:

    So, you’re just a troll after all!

  • Rebooted

    Sunday
    Sunday Night Football

    Monday
    The Voice
    NEW DRAMA

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    NEW DRAMA
    Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    Parks and Rec.
    NEW TINA FEY COMEDY
    The Blacklist
    Law and Order:SVU

    Thursday
    The Biggest Loser
    About A Boy
    NEW COMEDY
    Parenthood (final)

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Revolution

    THOUGHTS???

  • StevenD

    Here’s my schedule idea:

    Monday:
    8-10 The Voice/Sing off/The Voice
    10-11 New drama (Conception)

    Don’t fix anything that isn’t broken

    Tuesday:
    8-9 Sketch comedy
    9-10 The Voice/HGN/The Voice
    10-11 Chicago Fire

    SNL repeats do well, I think they could get a 2.0 in this competitive time slot. Keep Boosting Chicago Fire for future anchor

    Wednesday:
    8-8:30 Mr. Robinson
    8:30-9 Tooken
    9-10 Tin Man/Constantine
    10-11 Chicago PD (or Believe ,Crisis)

    I can see a “The Office” advertisement now. Its also counter programming to reality/family comedies. Same with 9 dramas.

    Thursday:
    8-9 The Biggest Loser/Space Race
    9-10 The Blacklist
    10-11 SVU/New drama

    Space race post Super Bowl with new drama debuting with its hype. SVU maintains the slot till then .

    Friday:
    8-9 Parks and Community / Dateline
    9-10 Grimm
    10-11 Dateline/SVU

    Final seasons for comedies, SVU comes in late.

    Sunday Midseason:

    8-9 A.D
    9-10 new comedy/About a Boy
    10-11 Parenthood final season

    Essentially this years Thursday but with a good lead in

    It has a big show every day:

    Monday/Tuesday- The Voice
    Wednesday- 8-10 in new promotional push in the fall
    Thursday- Space Race
    Friday- Grimm (relative to the night)
    Sunday- A.D

    Thoughts?

  • k:Alex

    With all the awful ratings this season for the comedies, they will save some stable above 1.s.
    Last year they though they couldn’t get any lower ratings.

    But they where wrong so I don’t think they will take a risk like that again.
    I say final season renew for Comm and Parks

  • Ryan

    Yeah I’m fairly confident community and parks will get final seasons. Now if they fall under 1.0 for more than 2 weeks in a row they will end but I think they will remain the top 2 rated comedies through the end of the season for nbc. Sony is so aggressive they will bundle community final season into NBC series orders next year for a price NBC will like. Just like this year. Plus I have seen community syndicated on many channels in some good timeslots. They haven’t been moved. So I’m assuming its doing OK at least. If Sony is making good money in syndication more epps = more money. Deadline reported last year that there were other parties interested in community if it was canceled. So I have this feeling that if community is canceled its going to get another season somewhere else. Netflix, comedy Central, even Hulu could get it. Its very popular on Hulu. Anyways as usual it will be fascinating to see what happens come may. I really love community and parks and would love to see at least a short final season. They are the best of the best when it comes to comedy on broadcast.

  • AllOfHerTw!st

    Whitney isn’t looking so bad after the ratings this season.

  • sitcomlover

    @Ryan

    Hope you are correct. Agree with you with Community & Parks. I find myself watching less and less comedies now. I’ll check something out, give it a few shots, and move on. Used to watch a lot more even 5 years ago. Other than Modern Family, which has gone down, I watch a lot less network TV comedies, which I still prefer to other shows. Sort of surprised that more borderline show didn’t continue on basic cable (Cougar Town), especially with loyal viewers.

  • Jerry

    I think pretty much all NBC comedies will certainly be cancelled, with Parks and Community being toss-ups. If only one can survive, it will probably be Parks. But I think both will be renewed as spackle, though spackle potential will probably be lower, and I don’t think they can survive past their next seasons (ratings wise) if they are renewed. I mean, at some point, if 1.0 rating is the best of the comedy bunch, it will still not be tolerated.

  • Chris J

    @Kissan

    In your fantasy schedule, I don’t think it would be wise for NBC to schedule a new drama potentially against Scandal Thursday 10pm, even if that drama has the Blacklist as a lead in.

    NBC should make a safer move and schedule a sophomore show such as Chicago PD there, and schedule the new drama in a safer time slot such as Wednesday 10pm.

    @omabin

    I really like your winter schedules.

    Also I think there could be a high possibility NBC schedules the Space Race on Sunday, especially if the show has a 2 hour format.

    I could see something like:

    8:00pm The Bible AD
    9-11pm The Space Race

    @Rebooted

    I don’t think The Blacklist would do well competing directly with Criminal Minds on Wednesday.

    @StevenD

    Wednesdays would be too risky in that schedule. NBC is not going to want a repeat of Thursdays this season. If with the promotional push the entire night fell flat on it’s face.

    I expect safer scheduling next year with a relatively established anchor show on each night.

  • Chris J

    @Jerry

    If NBC reduced sitcom hours next season, they might not need Community or Parks to function as spackle shows.

    NBC might only renew one comedy this season, and I have a feeling that comedy is going to be About a Boy by default.

    There is no sense in them renewing shows that are going to premier with cancellation numbers.

  • Eve

    @ChrisJ

    They might have a chance of building a night with the comedies that get The Voice boost, as About a boy will; even Growing Up Fisher has a chance if they’re THAT desperate (I also think it will not get dreadful ratings, it has to lead Chicago Fire and it begins from a heavily boosted comedy).

    What I mean is that maybe they have long term plans like the one I just mentioned, the con is that they need to air another comedy on Thursdays because they definetly won’t give up on their dead timeslot and those are Parks & Community (if anything they put there fails, named Tina Fey or The Office guys).

  • Kissan

    @ChrisJ

    But won’t Chicago PD be hurt by Elementary and Scandal? Won’t it benefit from being with their mothership show on Wednesdays?

  • StevenD

    @ChrisJ

    My only justification for a whole new Wednesday is CBS, ABC, and Fox have essentially had the same schedule for years while NBC has weakly programmed the night with what seems like random shows (especially this year). It’s in need of a new feel .

    The 8-9 comedies would be young skewing and fresh like their comedy block was last year, hopefully more towards them in their prime. It’s also against Survivor/The Middle, both out of group target.

    Tin Man and Constantine should draw their own audience like Revolution probably did last year, you just have to hope they stick around more similar to Sleepy Hollow. They would be up against family comedies/CBS procedural

    It’s the most open time slot Monday-Thursday. Why not give it a shot? If they don’t, Fox most likely will and they will lose their chance. Plus Sunday-Tuesday and Thursday go very well on the rest of my schedule (at least I think..) so ratings would more then likely go up anyways on average.

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