NBC: 'Community' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 7th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 5, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.73
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.73
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.82
Parenthood :| :| :| 1.18
Community :| :| :| 1.18
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.36
Parks & Recreation :| :| :|
Revolution :| :| :|
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
The Blacklist renewed

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It's a New Year and the Cancellation Bear is back!

Last season Community returned to the NBC lineup above the NBC Fall scripted adults 18-49 ratings average (1.9 vs. ~1.8).

Not so this season. Community's 1.3 premiere rating was well below the ~1.6 Fall 2013 average for NBC scripted shows. Until the bear sees some more 2014 NBC ratings he's not going any more pessimistic than a "toss up" for the show, but it's certainly in a far more precarious position than it was at the start of its run last season.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Kristina

    I think community should not be cancelled or renewed because it’s fine just the way it is at least I like to watch community :)

  • Feedback

    Let’s go night by night.

    1. Mondays

    NBC is winning with their 2 hours of Voice and with their breakout hit The Blacklist. There is no need to change anything. In 2013, they sandwiched The Biggest Loser in between Voice cycles, but this time, they used HGN instead. I don’t see HGN returning, so I think Biggest Loser will be returning to that spot next year.

    2. Tuesdays

    In 2012, they tried airing 2 new comedies after Voice. They failed. They then tried a matchmaking show which also failed. This year, they followed it up with Chicago Fire which was a decent move that seems like it paid off. However, NBC is going to debut 2 new comedies in between their winning formula. I think that’s a recipe for disaster. Both will be canceled, leaving a spot for Chicago P.D. in the fall.

    3. Wednesdays

    Last year, they anchored the night with 2 horrible comedies and followed it up with a pretty good lineup of L&O and Chicago Fire. This year, they sandwiched L&O between Revolution and Ironside, and both of them suffered. I’m guessing they’re going to want to sandwich L&O between 2 new DRAMAS in the fall. It’s their best bet for next year.

    4. Thursdays

    Thursdays is a mess. They shuffled around 30 Rock, Up All Night, Parks and Rec, 1600 Penn and Community and Go On, while following all that up with Rock Center, Do No Harm and Hannibal, which none of them impressed. They would be crazy to keep the comedy lineup after failing again this year. But with 3 new comedies already picked up and more on the way, it seems like they’re going for it. Look for 3 new comedies here along with a short final season for Parks and Rec. I’m also guessing The Apprentice returns at 10pm Thursdays to follow up the night.

    Fridays

    In ’12/’13, Grimm was basically alone with Dateline, Rock Center and Fashion Star jumping spots all around it. This year they paired it up with Dracula, but it failed to impress. If Revolution is renewed, I think it might be moved to Fridays to accompany Grimm. If it doesn’t, we’ll be seeing a new drama here too.

    Sundays

    Football! After the crappy way they followed up football last year (encores and an Apprentice), I like how they’re trying out some new high stakes dramas in Believe and Crisis. Whether they’re hits or not, I don’t see them joining us in the Fall. If renewed, they’re coming back for the same spots next year at mid-season.

    Now I’ve told you what THEY are going to do, but this is what I would do:

    Mondays:
    8- The Voice (bring in The Sing-Off during Voice’s hiatus)
    10- [new show]

    Tuesdays:
    8- The Voice (bring in Community & Parks and Rec in the winter to blow off some final episodes)
    9- [new show]
    10- [new show]

    Wednesdays:
    8- Law and Order: SVU
    9- Chicago Fire
    10- Chicago P.D.

    Thursdays:
    8- The Biggest Loser
    9- The Blacklist
    10- The Apprentice (bring in Parenthood in the winter to blow off some final episodes)

    Fridays:
    8- Dateline NBC
    9- Grimm
    10- Revolution

  • Chris J

    @Eve

    NBC was unable to build a night around Go On last year even though it had “The Voice”-boost all season long.

    Although I think About A Boy will be renewed, I think NBC is smart enough not to move it to Thursday to anchor the night.

    At this point I don’t think NBC is too focused on programming comedies on Thursday that will keep sinking to below 1.0. They will probably reduce comedy hours and place shows on Thursday that have the opportunity to help them win the night. Must-See-TV doesn’t have to be 2 hours of comedies.

    @Kissan

    Chicago PD, probably won’t be hurt by Scandal and Elementary much. Elementary is only getting mid-1s so it’s not a ute threat, and Scandal probably skews more female than Chicago PD will.

    The benefit to scheduling Chicago PD on Thursday is that it already has a built-in fan base that will likely follow it to that time-slot, and it also would probably be compatible with The Blacklist as a lead in.

    Of course Chicago PD would also do well paired with Chicago Fire, but then NBC would have to place an unproven show against juggernaut Scandal.

    There are pros and cons to both options, but IMO I think it’d be easier to launch a new show at Wednesday 10pm where ABC’s Nashville is only getting mid-1s and CSI is barely getting 2s.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    It’s a good idea for the most part, but I don’t see the benefit of scheduling a new drama at 9pm and leaving Chicago Fire behind The Voice. They may as well put the new drama behind the Voice, and air Chicago Fire 9pm Wednesday to add more stability to the night.

    @Feedback

    You schedule has no comedies and NBC already bought 4 half hour shows and 2 hour-long sketch comedy pilots.

  • Tommy Mickens

    @Ultima wrote: This year, many people are ignoring exactly the same thing as well as what NBC did last season and are assuming that just because a show is at the top, it’s going to get renewed. NBC is probably going to cancel all of the sitcoms currently on the schedule.

    Don’t forget these words, so I can point out how you were wrong when NBC renewals come. ;)

    Last year many predicted they’d cancel many sitcoms, but they still renewed some. Cancelling ALL of their sitcoms would be almost unprecedented (quick anybody – I’m curious – has there been a time or when was the last time a big-3 network cancelled all of their sitcoms?).

    I can certainly see almost all of the sitcoms being cancelled, but I’d bet against every single one being cancelled. Unless a mid-season comedy sticks (and one just barely might by luck if they’re getting a cushy post-Voice slot), then I’d say we see one of three things: (1) Both Parks and Community renewed. (2) Only Parks renewed. (3) Only Community renewed.

    I think NBC will at the very least renew one sitcom for filler, in case all their new shows next year bomb. Because remember Ultima, you gloat about how NBC cleared house last year….and look where it got them this year. The two RETURNING comedies are the highest rated and the new ones are doing as bad or worse than the comedies cancelled last year. And I’m sure NBC are well aware of that.

    I will also say this – unless Community ratings drop below say a 0.90 or so, maybe even a 0.80 or so, on the index, I think it will be renewed, even if it’s only for an ultra-short final season. Why? Because NBC are well aware of the “six seasons and a movie” meme, and unless ratings are just too bad to justify it, they’d probably like to fulfil that prophecy from a marketing standpoint. Imagine a box set of the series with six seasons and a movie. What I could see them doing is a very short sixth season (between six and thirteen episodes) AND a final wrap-up tv movie, even if the “movie” is not really a movie and more of an extended episode. For instance, they could have the finale be an hour long instead of a half hour, and voila, six seasons and a movie, and the “movie” could still be chopped into thirty-minute segments for syndication. This is all, of course, IF the ratings don’t plummet, which they well could looking at the low premiere rating. If ratings plummet too low, NBC won’t care about the meme. If they are mediocre or better, though, I will assume six seasons and movie for Community.

  • Eve

    @ChrisJ

    Go On had anything but a dumb scheduling. The Voice in the fall and then a show with a 60 year old lady as lead-in for three months until The Voice came back IN MARCH. Go On suffered for bad scheduling as Revolution did last season.

    NBC is being a little bit smarter this time, putting About A Boy after the entire run of The Voice Spring cycle. I think it will work and it will be able to fight with Superbowl boosted Fox comedies.

    And I was not thinking on putting About A Boy on Thursday next season. I was saying that they might use The Voice boost to lauch and find and audience avoiding The Big Bang Theory and company for the comedies that will go to Thursday night, in a long term.

  • milo

    While it’s lower than the fall average, that average is what it is because of a few fairly high numbers at the start of the season followed by a drop to terrible ones and no recovery. Community could drop to the .8s that Sean and MJF have but I doubt it. The real question is whether NBC would cancel every last sitcom or give ones like Community and Parks a final short season.

    Personally unless Community does drop below 1.0 I think they have plenty of other stuff to cancel and could potentially keep it around as spackle. On the one hand I can see the appeal of a clean slate but on the other, one show that gets 1.3 is better than having three or four shows at .8 instead of just two that low.

  • Lord Seth

    Ha! Grimm is above average.

    It probably won’t stay like that for long, but it’s still funny to see a Friday show at above average.

  • Chris_SAdvisor

    Community is on the bubble, but will likely survive. I doubt they will cancel all their comedies – but anything is possible where money is concerned.

    If Revolution hits 1.3 for a single episode, it is gone. If it hold a 1.4 for more than three weeks, it is gone. It does not have enough of a following to survive another move, especially to Friday. Sure Revolution fits better with the supernatural tone of Fridays now, being techno-magic, but it was something that should have done back in the Fall. It cannot survive a move now. I still think NBC realized they had been scammed (promised realistic, vetted SciFi with an epic quest and got this drivel), so they needed a demo based excuse to exit the contract without drawing penalties. They did not put it out in front to be a strong lead-in for SVU, which could have benefited from one.

  • Bawb

    I think, barring permanently moving or extending The Voice to Thursdays, that it would be unwise to clean slate comedies for NBC. Whatever gets put at the 8 o clock time will rate really low …mostly because the General Viewing audience seem to be comprised of people who thinks stereotypes sre entertaining and need a laugh track to tell them what is or is not funny. So putting a new comedy or even new drama at that time will garner worse ratings because it is not a proven band with no built in fanbase. Community and Parks and Recreation have small but loyal fanbases (mostly educated folk …would not be surprised if their ratings are low because their fans or people that would get their humor are too busy with their careers to watch them live …while the nine to fivers and retail workers have nothing going on at 8 on a Thursday evening and thus go for the “low brow” option …also people older than 55 don’t realize that other networks exist outside of CBS. End joklingly OTT but really not joking rant because …well … to think people choose to watch a manufactured show about nerd stereotypes and how weird and awkward and foreign it is over two shows that embraces the fact that everyone is a nerd in their own way and writes them a truly fleshed out characters is VERY depressing. NOW end RANT). Basically NBC is going to want to wait and prep a new comedy in a less competitive timeslot before setting it out against a ratings juggernaut. Until they find that show, the two Thursday night veterans are perfect for the “pummeling” spot because while ratings are low, they hold steady usually throughout the season. Would it be wise to order full seasons of both shows? Not in this current climate of intellegent humor going over most people’s head. Doing a final thirteen episode of Parks works. Then use Community as the winter fill in of eight to thirteen episodes until NBC finds something that can compete at 8. Just have a agreement with Harmon and Sony that whenever they decide that its time for cancellation that they will be allowed TV movie to wrap everything up. But as of right now, it works where it is at right now. And when both shows have been off the air … THEN the General Viewing audience will talk about how funny the show was and how terrible it was that it got cancelled because their intellegent friends brought it up in conversation. Just like they did with Arrested Development and Futurama.

  • Chris J

    @Tommy Mickens

    Yeah there is a slight chance both Parks and Community are renewed, but it won’t be because of ratings. IF NBC renews either show it’d be to give fans a finale to two great series.

    I like @Feedback and @omabin idea of using final seasons of veteran comedies as winter schedule filler between cycles of The Voice and possibly cycles of Biggest Loser if NBC takes that show to 2 cycles.

    But regardless @Ultima is right that none of the current comedies are going to be in the Fall schedule for NBC.

    @Eve

    What are you trying to say?

    The situation of About A Boy and Go On look the same to me. Next season if About A Boy were moved to another night it would likely crater like Go On did. I think NBC will likely keep the show on Tuesday next season.

    @Bawb

    The answer for Thursday 8pm is reality. NBC has seen that The Voice and The Sing Off do relatively well at that hour, and Sound of Music special proved NBC can get viewers at that hour with LIVE programming.

    Next season I expect either a reality show or NBC’s live sketch comedy show to be scheduled for Thursday 8pm.

  • Eve

    @ChrisJ

    It is simple. About A Boy gets viewers from The Voice for something like two or three seasons and THEN they can put it on Thursday 9 or 8 pm (depending if CBS moves TBBT) paired with another comedy (named Growing Up Fisher or not) that has got the same boosting an then you get a strong comedy hour on their currently poor Thursday night.

    And let’s be honest. NBC played ping pong with Go On’s timeslot. It was obviously going to crater.

  • Cree

    I love Community. Moving it all over the place, however, makes it difficult to keep track of when/what day it will air. I completely agree with Matt’s post. We almost missed it (friends and I get together to watch it). Not one of us had any idea it was going to start until Thursday–a friend happened to see it on the line up.

  • reidjr

    Tommy Mickens

    I think Community will get renewed no matter what now if ratings are real bad maybe that means its gets a summer run of 6-8 episodes or if ratings are ok they get it a short run in the fall.

  • joel

    I think Parks & Rec is falling down the rabbit hole of decline. It’s ironic, but I now consider Community to be the senior comedy of highest stature on NBC, worthy of their 9pm tent-pole status.

    I just watched this week’s Community episode “Basic Intergluteal Numismatics” and I can’t stop thinking ‘Wow’. So brilliant. So well-done. It captured the entire spectrum of emotion. And now the added element of a mysterious cliffhanger worthy of a great television drama. It’s so ridiculous but at the same time so spooky.

  • Jami

    Wow already predicting About a boy will be renewed, this sounds so familiar, like certain renewal for Dracula, MJF,SSTW. I wonder what REVOLUTION cancel index number seems higher than GRIMM’s and Parks and Rec:)

  • tomsman

    Bawb

    Jeez. Condescend and fangirl much? I don’t even know where to start, so let me state that I have a BA in American Studies and English and a Master’s Degree in Library and Information Science. I am a nerd of the highest order. True story – I love both P&R and TBBT equally and appreciate their humor, divergent from each other as they are. I find it hard to take you seriously when you state that you are kinda but maybe not really joking, but spell the word incorrectly – “joklingly” – and ignore the spell-check. TBBT is “low brow”? Please. Your comments are insulting and “low brow”. Have you even watched the show? I’m sorry that P&R doesn’t get the love we wish it should get; however, insulting people’s viewing habits gets us nowhere – “…nine to fivers and retail workers have nothing going on at 8 on a Thursday evening and thus go for the “low brow” option”. Having worked in retail for years while working myself through school, your point about retail made me laugh out loud. I don’t know of many retail stores that have schedules that get people out of work in time for 8pm shows, if anything, they aren’t out until 9:30 or 10. Sure, SOME are out by 5, but c’mon. Your sweeping statement of 9-5ers is also ridiculous. Have you ever worked a full-time job (jobs at the same time)? What I find most hilarious about your post is that you are upset that TBBT exists because of what you consider are it’s stereotypes, but you EASILY paint your post in broad strokes of stereotypical references about people that watch these shows. Parks & Rec rocks. I, like many, move fluidly through environments such as these (obviously far less absurd). I hope that some day you will also. For someone who likes comedy, you appear to be a bit tightly wound – I say that jokingly… ;-) TBBT is funny. Frankly, I’m amazed at how many people in this country watch the show. I think it’s awesome that nerds aren’t portrayed as awkward wallflowers in a corner – THAT’s stereotypical. One of them has a “hot blonde” for a girlfriend and another is married to one – NOT stereotypical. All but one are in pursuit of sex. As for Parks & Rec, I would love an additional short season. It seems to me that by the contents of your post that you are feeding the stereotypes about the people who watch P&R, so thanks for that also. We should enjoy what P&R we get and for Pete’s sake, don’t start a petition to keep it running…

  • Eve

    This week was interesting: Chicago Fire and The Biggest Loser did well on Tuesday, the whole Wednesday lineup was up vs. last airing, Chicago PD premiering strong and all comedies (even SSTW and MJFS) up vs. last week. Really looking forward for next week Renew/Cancel index!

  • Steve

    Community and Parks and Rec should be renewed. NBC has nothing except The Voice. They can’t cancel everything!

  • Jami

    @Chris_SAdvisor
    Posted January 8, 2014 at 4:31 PM
    Community is on the bubble, but will likely survive. I doubt they will cancel all their comedies – but anything is possible where money is concerned.

    If Revolution hits 1.3 for a single episode, it is gone. If it hold a 1.4 for more than three weeks, it is gone. It does not have enough of a following to survive another move, especially to Friday. Sure Revolution fits better with the supernatural tone of Fridays now, being techno-magic, but it was something that should have done back in the Fall. It cannot survive a move now. I still think NBC realized they had been scammed (promised realistic, vetted SciFi with an epic quest and got this drivel), so they needed a demo based excuse to exit the contract without drawing
    penalties. They did not put it out in front to be a strong lead-in for SVU, which could have benefited from one.

    How do you know REVOLUTION could not survive the move to Friday, Grimm moved 3 times last year on NBC Friday to Tuesday and then back to Friday even with the Voice Grimm still did the same numbers.
    I mean I get it you hate REVOLUTION with an extreme passion. However I disagree with you Season 2 of REVOLUTION has been awesome, I also agree NBC maybe surprised it is maintaining a core audience such as Grimm, Parks, and Community. REVOLUTION is still chugging a long when everyone predicted SMASH numbers. REVOLUTION should move to Friday nights after Grimm. REVOLUTION is till doing better than expected for that time slot and has been steady all year long. NBC can move it to Friday nights for a Season 3 give it 22 episodes if it hit’s SMASH like numbers NBC can reduce the episode order to 17 like they did with SMASH, not lose face if it bombs. However NBC does not have t o renew Revolution for a 4th season because REVOLUTION would have only 59 episodes instead of 64, NBC has done this before with several shows. I am surprised by the way you hate it, and NBC hardly promotes the show, they have not reduced the episode order by now, maybe NBC is actually okay with the ratings on Wednesday and they don’t have to blow in advertising money on the show, like they do for MJF,SSW, Parks, Community, CF Parenthood, Grimm, that are lower rated shows.
    I myself will be shocked and happy if REVOLUTION is renewed for a third season, but even you have to admit the show has been steady. You know when a show is being cancelled when the network reduces it’s order, that’s why I was surprised when REVOLUTION back order was reduced from 22 to 20 eps Season 1, and that was very early in the first season 2012.

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