NBC: 'Chicago PD' Starts As Likely To Be Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 14th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


bear-meme

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 12, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Dracula (F) :cry: :cry: 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: 0.68
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.68
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.99
Community :| :| :| 1.02
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.06
Revolution :| :| :| 1.14
Parks & Recreation :| :| :| 1.14
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.52
Chicago PD :) :) :) :) 1.52
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.59
The Blacklist renewed

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Chicago PD premiere ratings put it far enough ahead of the Cancellation Bear that it starts off as likely to be renewed. As with all early results/predictions, future ratings have a way of changing the predictions quickly. Stay tuned.

Having four NBC shows predicted as a "toss up" bothers the bear. After another week or two of results, expect some of those predictions to change.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Robert Ford

    I kind of wonder whether any NBC sitcom will do well again ever, at this point.

    I love 30 Rock, Parks and Rec, and Community, but recognize that they’re all niche. However their attempts at creating new comedies with mass appeal continue to fall flat on their faces. They also tend to be far more niche-oriented than NBC had intended, but even when this isn’t the case (I’d argue that SSTW seems pretty mainstream) the ratings are abysmal.

    I wonder if they could throw up the white flag and *try* to create niche comedies. They could have theme nights, in which they try to target a specific demographic, such as “women under 50″ or “college graduates between 25 and 54.” It seems like they could hardly do worse, at this point, when perpetually-marginal, aging cult comedies are now their strongest sitcoms.

    That, or the network that gave us Seinfeld, Cheers, and The Cosby Show, among others, could take a break from comedy for a few years, then return to it when people have forgotten their recent failures.

  • Eve

    If someone knows… What are the shows that NBC has ordered pilots or even to series already? And what are they about, please.

  • Chris J

    Since NBC is doing much better this season, I could see them keeping most of their schedule in tact for next season without a lot of major moves. For the most part NBC is in a good spot, and they just have to fill a few holes.

    Of course Thursdays need to be relaunched, but they have enough veteran programs to fill that hole pretty well

    As far as bubble shows, as I said before, Hannibal, Parenthood, Parks, and Community, can be renewed for spackle and/or as summer series. All 4 shows will probably end next year anyway.

  • StevenD

    @Eve

    If you go to Devwatch on Futon Critic they have a list for every network. Also check deadline from time to time, because if I remember correctly, a lot of pilost were picked up the week of MLK Jr. day.

  • Chris J

    Mock Fall Schedule:

    Next season

    Monday:

    08:00 The Voice -3.5
    10:00 Odyssey (NEW) – 3.0

    Tuesday

    08:00 The Voice Results – 3.0
    09:00 Tina Fey Comedy “Tooken” (NEW) – 2.5
    09:30 About A Boy – 2.0
    10:00 Chicago Fire – 2.0

    Wednesday

    08:00 Tin Man (NEW) – 2.0
    09:00 Law and Order: SVU – 1.7
    10:00 Chicago PD – 1.9

    Thursday

    08:00 The Biggest Loser – 1.7
    09:00 The Blacklist – 2.5
    10:00 Coersion (NEW) – 2.0

    Friday

    08:00 Revolution – 1.4
    09:00 Grimm – 1.6
    10:00 Constantine (NEW) – 1.8

    Sunday (Spring)

    08:00 The Bible A.D. (NEW) – 3.0
    09:00 Rob Lowe Comedy “The Pro” (NEW) – 2.5
    09:30 Mr. Robinson (NEW) – 2.0
    10:00 Murder She Wrote (NEW) – 2.0

    Most shows are in the same spot except for About A Boy, Biggest Loser, Blacklist, and Revolution. Outside of those moves new programming is filling in the voids left by shows that were moved or cancelled.

    For winter, NBC will have American Ninja Warrior, The Sing Off, Maya Rudolph’s sketch comedy show, and whatever other reality pick ups they make.

    For Spring NBC’s big promotional launch will be Sunday nights anchored by the Bible series, and The Space Race on Thursdays 8pm. Everything else should stay solid unless one or more of the new shows needs to be replaced. Parenthood will be benched in case a new show bombs before midseason. But if all goes smoothly through the season Parenthood, Hannibal, Parks, and Community finish out their final seasons in the summer.

  • StevenD

    @Chris J

    Really like that schedule!

    I think it’d be cool if NBC made Tin Man 13 episodes and replaced it with Constantine like Fox’s recent dramas.

    I’m not sure if NBC would premiere 4 dramas (although there is less comedy) and give up the cheap and profitable Dateline.

  • Wally

    The bear looks beautiful in that pic.

  • Jami

    @ Eve.
    Thanks for clearing that up about the cancel/index.

    I was thinking overall for 2013 -2014 season. Revolution numbers have been steady as a rock.
    Someone said in an earlier post that NBC wants a variety of programing for viewers year round. Then I would think that for now, REVOLUTION would be safe for renewal.
    Here is hoping that REVOLUTION can maintain the same ratings when AI .

    I would not after the Intelligence preview after one show, put it on the bubble, Just as I would not say certain renewal for CPD with no competition and a promo every second of the day.
    I think NBC has been fair with REVOLUTION it did have the VOICE lead in last year. NBC theory is sink or swim this year with REVOLUTION.

  • Eve

    @StevenD,

    Thank you, I’ll check out.

    @Jami,

    You’re welcome.

  • Chris J

    @StevenD

    It’s the same amount of “all new premier” hours as NBC had this past fall. It’s 4.5 hours total, but instead of 3 comedies and 3 dramas, it’s 4 dramas 1 comedy (one less show to promote!). But NBC could stagger the premiers as they’ve done in the past to make it easy for each new show to get ample promotion.

    As far as Dateline, it may be a good idea to air it on Fridays in the Fall. That way NBC only has to debut 3 dramas. In the Spring when Dateline moves to Sunday 7pm, then NBC can premier a new drama in it’s timeslot like Constantine or maybe a limited series.

  • Isobel

    I hope community and parks get renewed, if only for final seasons to be spackle for the network

  • Eve

    @ChrisJ,

    Grimm does poorly (1.3-ish) with a weak lead-in. Let Revolution there and only air Dateline where something else tanks.

    I would put Chicago Fire after SVU, Chicago PD after The Blacklist and Coersion (???) after The Voice tuesday. I like your schedule, it would work. Nice.

  • Chris J

    @Eve

    NBC only moved 6 programs last fall in their schedule (Biggest Loser, The Voice Results, Chicago Fire, Revolution, Parks and Recreation, and Parenthood).

    Since NBC is in a better spot this year than last year, they may move less shows around. So although I agree it may be advantageous for them to move Chicago Fire and Chicago PD, it may not be realistic.

    Even looking at their Spring schedule, it looks like Greenblatt wants to add stability to the network by not moving any shows around. Heck he’s even keeping the failures in their place and not rushing them off to burn off.

    So essentially my schedule assumes NBC keeps most shows put and only makes moves out of necessity.

    But all that to say, I like you ideas.

    Coercion on Tuesdays (maybe also moving The Voice back to 9pm and putting the comedies at 8pm)

    Chicago Fire back on Wednesdays 10pm

    Chicago PD paired with The Blacklist Thursdays. Another benefit would be having a relatively established show with an established fan base going head to head with Scandal versus an unproven show like Coercion.

    Revolution at 8pm Friday before Grimm would be a good pairing. Dateline can move to 10pm if NBC doesn’t debut a new drama on Fridays next fall.

  • Ally Oop

    I would like to see one of the nets put comedies in the 10pm hour. NBC might want to try that. After all, there would be no similar competition. It would make sense given the late night shows which are headed by comedians.

  • Josh

    All I hope is that Parenthood gets renewed for another season, probably its final season, but as long as it gets one more season that’s all that matters to me :-)

  • Kissan

    This is my NBC schedule for next season:

    Monday

    8:00-The Voice(Sept-Dec)/The Sing Off(Jan-Mar)/The Voice(Mar-May) 3.7
    10:00-The Odyssey(new series) 2.9

    Tuesday

    8:00-About A Boy 2.2
    8:30-Tooken(new series) 2.5
    9:00-The Voice(Sept-Dec)/Maya Rudolph Variety Show(Jan-Mar)/The Voice(spring) 3.3
    10:00-Outbreak(new series) 2.5

    Wednesday

    8:00-Tin Man(new series, fall)/Constatine(new series,spring) 1.8
    9:00-Chicago Fire 2.1
    10:00-The Mysteries Of Laura(new series) 1.6

    Thursday

    8:00-The Biggest Loser(Sept-Jan)/Space Race(new reality competition series,Feb-May) 2.0
    9:00-The Blacklist 2.7
    10:00-Chicago PD 2.0

    Friday

    8:00-Revolution(13 episodes,fall)/The Wolfman(new series,spring) 1.4
    9:00-Grimm 1.7
    10:00-SVU 1.9

    Sunday(Midseason)

    8:00-The Bible A.D. Series(Mar 1st-Apr 5th)/Marry Me & Mr. Robinson(new series) 2.8
    9:00-Working With Engels(new series) 2.0
    9:30-Welcome To Sweden(new series) 2.0
    10:00-Murder She Wrote Reboot(new series) 1.6

    American Dream Builders, Believe, Crisis, SSTW, MJF Show, Community, Parks & Rec, Parenthood, Growing Up Fisher and Dracula cancelled in May 2014. Revolution, Chicago Fire, The Blacklist, SVU, Chicago PD and About A Boy renewed and moved to new day or new time. Space Race gets the Superbowl slot.

  • Brian

    Chicago PD & Fire will either both be renewed, or neither will. It’s an attempt at a long running franchise to draw in money from syndication, Netflix, Hulu +, Amazon Prime, Redbox, etc; It’s a money grab being produced at minimal cost $2-3m per episode. Each season will be profitable after 2 years of the secondary revenue streams and then produce expenseless revenue indefinitely.

  • Chris J

    @Kissan

    That’s the best oak schedule I’ve seen. We’ll see what happens the rest of the season, but it’s looking like Revolution might be on the chopping block too, if it stays in the 1.3 range the rest of the season.

    @Brian

    At this point I’m pretty sure both Chicago PD and Chicago Fire are locks for renewal. Even if PD sinks to a 1.4 as long as it stays above Parenthood and Revolution in the ratings (a pretty easy task) it’ll be renewed.

  • Rebooted

    Sunday
    Sunday Night Football

    Midseason:
    The Bible
    New comedy
    New Comedy
    New Comedy
    New Comedy
    Parenthood (final)

    Monday
    The Voice
    Conception(NEW)

    Tuesday
    The Voice
    The Odyssey (New)
    Chicago Fire

    Wednesday
    Parks and Rec (final)/Community (final)
    NEW TINA FEY COMEDY
    Law and Order: SVU
    Chicago PD

    Thursday
    Biggest Loser
    Blacklist
    Paradise (new)

    Friday
    Dateline
    Grimm
    Revolution/ Constantine (new)

  • Eve

    @Kissan,

    Really good schedule, might work.

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