ABC: ‘Suburgatory’ Starts As A “Toss Up” To Be Canceled Or Renewed
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – January 19, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|The Neighbors (F)||:oops:||0.66|
|Nashville||:| :| :|||0.86|
|Back in the Game*||canceled||0.90|
|Last Man Standing (F)||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.96|
|Super Fun Night||:oops:||1.04|
|Revenge||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.04|
|Suburgatory||:| :| :|||1.06|
|The Goldbergs||:) :) :) :)||1.16|
|Castle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.19|
|The Middle||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.33|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.46|
|Modern Family||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.22|
|Once Upon A Time In Wonderland||:oops:|
|Once Upon A Time||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:|
|Grey’s Anatomy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:|
|Scandal||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:|
The cancellation bear has a soft spot for Suburgatory, the only prime time show to feature him in an episode. But if that caused him to favor the show in his predictions, he’d be no better than the TV media who bend over backwards to not mention the reality about shows to not displease their network handlers.
Suburgatory’s première rating last week was below the ABC scripted average for the week (which is itself artificially low because their 3 top dramas aren’t on the air). At that level, it’s no better than a “toss up” for renewal or cancellation.
Will the syndication gods intervene on Suburgatory’s behalf? Fans shouldn’t count on it. Its episode order situation is exactly the same as that of the now canceled Happy Endings (57 episodes at the end of its 3rd season). To get renewed, it’ll need some combination of good ratings (which the bear will watch) and Warner Brothers license fee “flexibility” (which the bear can only guess at) to survive.
Killer Women’s planned eight episode run will end after only six episodes. When something like that happens, the show has been canceled.
The bear likes to get shows into the headline ASAP after they première, but the observant will note that the bear has moved The Goldbergs up to “likely to be renewed” and Revenge and Last Man Standing up to “certain to be renewed”. They’ll make it into the headlines in the coming weeks.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the “old” Fall predictions will stay in the table.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|:oops:||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|:cry: :cry:||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|:| :| :|||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|:) :) :) :)||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.