ABC: 'Suburgatory' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew ABC Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 21st, 2014

Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 19, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
The Assets* canceled 0.48
Betrayal* :oops: 0.49
Killer Women canceled 0.53
The Neighbors (F) :oops: 0.66
Trophy Wife :oops: 0.73
Nashville :| :| :| 0.86
Back In The Game* canceled 0.90
Last Man Standing (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.96
Super Fun Night :oops: 1.04
Revenge :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.04
Suburgatory :| :| :| 1.06
The Goldbergs :) :) :) :) 1.16
Castle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.33
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.46
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.22
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland :oops:
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Grey's Anatomy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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The Cancellation Bear has a soft spot for Suburgatory, the only prime time show to feature him in an episode. But if that caused him to favor the show in his predictions, he'd be no better than the TV media who bend over backwards to not mention the reality about shows to not displease their network handlers.

Suburgatory's première rating last week was below the ABC scripted average for the week (which is itself artificially low because their 3 top dramas aren't on the air). At that level, it's no better than a "toss up" for renewal or cancellation.

Will the syndication gods intervene on Suburgatory's behalf? Fans shouldn't count on it. Its episode order situation is exactly the same as that of the now canceled Happy Endings (57 episodes at the end of its 3rd season). To get renewed, it'll need some combination of good ratings (which the bear will watch) and Warner Brothers license fee "flexibility" (which the bear can only guess at) to survive.

Killer Women's planned eight episode run will end after only six episodes. When something like that happens, the show has been canceled.

The bear likes to get shows into the headline ASAP after they première, but the observant will note that the bear has moved The Goldbergs up to "likely to be renewed" and Revenge and Last Man Standing up to "certain to be renewed". They'll make it into the headlines in the coming weeks.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • tonythelion

    @fred how is ABC comparing resurrection to lost?

  • Steve

    Come on ABC, just renew Suburgatory already and give it a 22 episode renewal for next year! And then renew it for a final 13 episode run the next year as a mid-season replacement. ABC–you know that will get the show to syndication–so everyone can see who Dalia Royce is! LOL

  • Dan

    Mixology won’t get a second season. Even if it gets OK ratings (I expect a 2.0 average) Its premise is very thin and how can they stretch that for another season.

    Suburgatory seems to be ABC’s Rules of Engagement so they will probably hang on to it for a couple more seasons

  • Tony JJ

    I can’t see Suburbatory not being renewed. What it proved these past two weeks is that it can do decent for spackle on the schedule. So if ABC doesn’t need it this fall they will renew it so they have something for mid season if a comedy bombs.

  • Anne

    I think and should drop the comedies on Tuesday. Focus on Wendesday and Friday. If you must have another comedy block then Sunday. Here is what Could see next season

    Sunday
    7 AFHV
    8 Once Upon a Time
    9 Galavant *New*
    9:30 Strange Calls*New*
    10 Revenge

    Monday
    8 DWTS
    10 Castle

    Tuesday
    8 Agents of SHIELD/Agent Carter/Agents of SHIELD
    9 Resurrection
    10 Forever *New*

    Wednesday
    8 The Middle
    8:30 The Goldbergs
    9 Modern Family
    9:30 An American Education*New*
    10 Mindgames

    Thursday
    Thursday night football
    Greys, Scandal,and a new show midseason

    Friday
    Last Man Standing
    Kevin Hart multi cam
    Shark Tank
    20/20

  • Fred

    @tonythelion

    Regarding the LOST/RESURRECTION connection :

    Serialized mystery/sci-fi shows have not performed well for ABC after LOST.
    This seems like ABC’s latest attempt to capitalize on the success of LOST.
    When I saw the promo with LOST stamped on the screen (as with many other shows post LOST)
    I immediately came to the conclusion that ABC was referring to the modern classic LOST .
    After watching it again – promoted quite frequently – the promo was using the term Lost in another context.
    I know it was ABC’s sly way of trying to connect the 2 show’s. they had me fooled.

    That said I’ll be watching Resurrection anyway . It does look intriguing and I’m into that genre.

  • Ashley

    Rules of Engagement survived as schedule sparkle on CBS for years, maybe Suburgatory can do the same. It’s a modest performer, but I’m sure ABC was hoping for more given season 1’s ratings and the upgrade to post-Modern Family time slot in season 2. If not, I hope for a move to ABC Family. When The Game moved from The CW to BET, it proved that that’s where its audience was.

  • Brad

    Can someone please post a link where ABC has “regretted” canceling Body of Proof? I show which got a 1.2 or 1.3 for it’s finale?

  • Jerry

    I think Suburgatory will be renewed, actually. It hasn’t really done very badly at all, and I think it has done well against American Idol’s strongest rating this season (barring a miraculous upswing of Idol rising from its season premiere). Happy Endings got cancelled because it was getting really low ratings of less than 1.0 towards the end of its run (yes it was moved to Friday but Last Man Standing has done well, and even The Neighbors are doing better numbers on Friday).

    Considering besides The Middle, Modern Family and Last Man Standing, I think Suburgatory does well compared to the rest and I think after 5 years of dying Wednesday comedies, ABC is looking for a show with somewhat decent ratings to last beyond 3 seasons, and I think they have found that with Suburgatory.

    It is still too early to tell, but I think eventually Suburgatory will get better numbers than Happy Endings’ and Cougar Town’s third seasons.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    @Brad
    Yeah, I’d like to see that too.

  • Wesley

    Nashville is a great show that runs against CBS’ CSI. CSI remains a strong show. ABC does not have many good dramas. They would be stupid to cancel Nashville. Everyone at my office watches it and loves it. None of them have been surveyed by the almighty Neilsen service.

  • Dylan

    If ABC was to move “Shark Tank” , where would bit succeed? ABC needs to stop the bleeding with it’s TUESDAY comedy hour block. Friday seems to be ok but Last Man Standing could move to Wednesdays. Shows that need to cancelled, we all know what they are. Shows that locked in renewal we all know them.

  • Elga Nelly

    Why the hell they canceled Back in the Game?
    It had such a great rating :(

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