CW: Some Have 'Reign' Getting Renewed, But The Bear Can Wait

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 21st, 2014

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 19, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast :oops: 0.52
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled 0.63
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.87
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.87
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.73
Reign :| :| :|
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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The Cancellation Bear always counsels fans to ignore what TV executives say, and only pay attention to what they do. So, when the CW announced their mid-season scheduling changes and Reign maintained its plum Thursday 9pm timeslot after The Vampire Diaries you might guess that the bear would look at that action and predict that the show would be renewed. While he can't argue with those that made that leap, he'd prefer to wait for more of the CW spring ratings before making any changes. Plus, the bear's got more than 10 CW related headlines to write before it's time to hibernate, so he can bide his time.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • JOE

    To me it all depends on how their 2 mid-season shows do…if they hit than both TTP/Reign are toast…if they fail then one will survive (Probably Reign) if one succeeds than expect both to be axed

  • Ryan

    Again a lot of people predicting that Star-Crossed will not do well. How are they determining that, you might ask? Because they don’t want Reign or the TTP to get canceled. As I said before, I saw Star-Crossed at Comic Con and it was fantastic!

    Here’s something to think about. The fact that CW put it on Monday night without a lead is very interesting. To me that reads they have a lot of faith in a freshman show to anchor a very tough night for them. Therefore, if Star-Crossed settles on .06 it will get renewed for the simple fact, it’s on a Monday night without a lead in. Where on the other hand, Reign is only getting 0.6 and it has a great lead in and a better night. Does not take a genius to figure it out. So Reign is just as much in trouble as TTP.

  • Timmy G

    @Ryan, you can definitely argue that point but there’s better evidence in the other direction.

    Case in point: The Originals; The CW could have easily used it to launch Monday’s but they chose to put it ahead of their best launching pad, Supernatural. Why did it get that spot? Because they wanted it to have the best chance to succeed.

    Plus The Originals was going to have the biggest fan base of any new shows because of the already popular characters, so if The CW really wanted to start off Monday’s fresh with a show they thought had the most promise, it would have been The Originals.

  • Alan

    @Bill Gorman
    Why don’t you put BATB as defacto cancelled too? Any fall show that will practically burn off some episodes after May means it’s dead.

  • Brandy

    @Tom,it wasn’t just the decline in the last five episodes that got SC cancelled,it was exspensive,rumors are Pedowitz didn’t like it,and he said it didn’t do well online or internationally as well as declining in demo all season(which Reign hasn’t done much of yet).BatB was renewed in spite of declining in the last five episodes though it remained stable at 0.5-07 all season.

  • Timmy G

    Oh you can tell by the tone of his interviews Pedowitz didn’t care for TSC. It was one of Dawn’s last babies. I’m 99 percent sure it was cancelled because of his disinterest in it. I have no idea why he loved BATB so much last year but his tone towards it was dramatically different.

    I can’t say for sure he was responsible for Ringer but it sure seemed that way with the constant repeats the show had. Basically that whole pilot season was weird and off with him becoming head and Ostroff leaving.

  • Brandy

    @Timmy G CW believes Reign has the most promise:Pedowitz said “I’m looking foward to it returning” & walked out to its theme music at TCAs ,gave it the best leadin and it keeps it’s timeslot in spring and it’s been the most promoted CW series this season,even more than TO and they moved the premiere back a week to avoid Glees Cory tribute episode.The back door pilot gave them a indication of what’s its ratings would be like,so they knew what to expect.They put TO & SPN on Tues because 1.They wanted to fix Tues and 2. They wanted TO to stand on its own as Pedowitz said.If they wanted to give TO the best chance to succeed ,they would’ve kept it after VD for more than the premiere.The shows they believe the most in get the most promotion:3 years ago Ringerv& Secret Circle.Last seasonCarrie Diaries,probably Arrow but I don’t remember & BatB got a fairly good amount too.This season Reign.

  • Brandy

    @Timmy G I know he favored Ringer cause it got crapton of promotion(every other commercial was a ad for Ringer)& the repeats for a little on Wed after H8tr flopped and he said he wanted to keep SMG as a producer at CW( though that didn’t happen).As for BatB ,he supported it last season and I think he’s Dissapointed & frustrated it didn’t grow this season or that the loyal stable Neilson audience it had last season didn’t stick around/follow it to Mon.Hes retooled the show twice and it hasn’t helped the ratings.I think he’s more focused on Reign,TO this season.Ive started seeing a deccent amount of promotion for Star-Crossed-it was in the newest tv now promo- but none yet for the 100.Hes completely given up on HoD,no promotion in season two & three and its not included in the tvnow promos anymore.

  • Timmy G

    @Brandy every single new show that has aired before Supernatural has been a success. Every show that has aired after TVD except Supernatural lost half it’s audience through the season. Supernatural was the safer bet.

    Reign was/still is a big leap for them. The Originals didn’t get a lot of promotion because it didn’t need it! We’ve seen in previous seasons time and time again that pretty much only two shows gets a lot of promotion before their launches. I saw just as much advertising for TTP as Reign. Clearly the network supports Reign 100 percent now over TTP, but they would choose The Originals any day over Reign.

  • Brandy

    @Timmy, I have to disagree on Reign/TTP getting the same amount of promotion:Every other commercial is a Reign promo,they started heavily promoting it heavily over the summer.I even saw Reign & TO banners on a couple website.I see/saw much less promotion for TTP and even during summer,I didn’t see much.

  • Bluebells

    I’m a huge reign fan but honestly, Reign needs to start rating higher than a 0.6 if it wants to make it (more ppl should watch the show!!!). Especially with the competition from the 100. And the flash and SPN spinoff if it does make it to season 2.

  • Kate

    The thing people need to remember about Reign is that it’s one of the most expensive shows on the CW to produce. That was one of the reasons TSC was cancelled a couple years ago – subpar post TVD ratings, expensive to make, lost about half its viewers by midseason, etc.. It’s like TCD all over again.

  • Ryan

    @Timmy G

    I understand what you’re saying, but why mess with a show that is already doing good for them on a good night. Why not put in a great new show, one that they believe in and see if it could anchor the night. You have to remember, sometimes when you move a show like the Originals, one that is doing good, but not great, to a different night, they might lose that existing audience. I think they are smart by placing Star-Crossed on Monday and have it be fresh start.

    And in terms of which show got the most marketing, that would be TTP.

  • Kate

    *TSC all over again not TCD

  • Fearless Diva

    Reign was a surprise for me, out of all the new shows, I thought Tomorrow People would succeed and was hoping The 100 and Star-Crossed would be too. I didn’t particularly care for Reign. But suprisingly enough, Reign(if anyone actually watches it) reels you in. The plot is actually interesting. It kind of reminds of Arrow in its first season since it took Arrow the first half of their season to find their footing. Tomorrow People, on the other hand has just fizzled out. A people choice Award may not mean much but the fact that its getting more positive buzz lately should mean something.What do you guys think??

  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    BATB was renewed immediately after it dropped to 0.5/1.24MM. That was a -17% change in the demo and a -22% drop in viewership. Bringing BATB back for a second season in a “reimagined” format was a pretty clear indication that the CW knew the show had lost its audience appeal. If Reign ends its season with numbers similar BATB, I’ll be curious to see if Pedowitz tries to fix that as well. Now that he’s stuck with 44 episodes of BATB he can’t syndicate, I suspect he might hesitate.

  • Brandy

    @Tom he can syndicate BatB 44 episodes.Dark Angel had a similar episode count ,was cancelled after two seasons,.Secret Circle was even run in marathons on Chiller twice & that had 22-24 episodes.
    @ Kate, even though SC was exspensive,had it not declined in ratings all season,done well online,done well internationally ,it would’ve been renewed.

  • Brandy

    @Tom that should say that Dark Angel with around 44 episodes has been syndicated on Spike or another channel and just recently got another syndication deal.True Calling had 2 seasons or one full and one short season and was syndicated on SCzi FI I think a few years back.

  • Brandy

    @Kate SC went from 1.3 to 0.9 in eight episodes with a much higher rated VD.Reign has gone from 0.8 to 0.6 in eight episodes with a lower rated VD.Reign does well online and internationally,which Pedowitz said SC didn’t.Even though Reigns exspensive, if at the end of the season it’s doing better than CD,Nikita,BatB,HoD,TTP,SC,the 100, they’ll renew it cause they can’t cancel everything,they have to fill hours and it’ll be doing better than half the lineup.Right now,Reign is doing better than Nikita,CD,BatB,HoD,TTP.Also,Pedowitz didn’t like SC but supports Reign-he walked out to its theme music and said “I look foward to it returning” at TCAs.

  • Tom

    @ Brandy

    A low rated show like BATB won’t syndicate for much. Obviously, you can syndicate any show regardless of its number of episodes. However, the real money lies in syndicating programs that have accumulated a lot more than 44 episodes. The CW is committed to producing serialized scripted programs for syndication which explains why the network dragged out Nikita for so long.

    The absolute lack of any alternative is the only circumstance in which I can see the CW biting the bullet and renewing Reign with ratings similar to BATB and the Secret Circle. The CW isn’t having the banner season that some posters claim. Reign and TTP are performing to unremarkable ratings and the jury is still out on The 100 and Star Crossed. If all four shows end up with poor ratings, the CW’s lone successful new program will be the Originals. That’s bad news because, according to Mr. Gorman, the CW has never started a new season with less than six scripted veteran shows. Since only five CW shows are currently a lock to be renewed, that means the CW will either have to repeat last year’s BATB scenario and renew a low rated program or really stretch its budget and launch five new shows next season. Given that choice, the CW may keep Reign around out of sheer necessity. Hopefully, it won’t come to that though.

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