CBS: If Another Sitcom Must Go, It’ll Be ‘Mom’ Or ‘Two And A Half Men’ That Gets Canceled
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – January 26, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Blue Bloods (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.63|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F)||:) :) :) :)||0.68|
|The Good Wife||:| :| :|||0.70|
|We Are Men*||canceled||0.74|
|The Mentalist||:cry: :cry:||0.74|
|CSI||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.79|
|Elementary||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.83|
|Person Of Interest||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.88|
|Mom||:) :) :) :)||0.90|
|The Crazy Ones||:) :) :) :)||0.96|
|Mike & Molly||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||0.98|
|Two And A Half Men||:) :) :) :)||1.01|
|Criminal Minds||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.01|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.05|
|2 Broke Girls||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.18|
|NCIS||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.31|
|How I Met Your Mother||final season||1.34|
|The Millers||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.34|
|The Big Bang Theory||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||2.43|
Chuck Lorre is behind four of the eight current CBS sitcoms (The Big Bang Theory, Mike & Molly, Mom, Two And A Half Men). Even with such success, if another CBS sitcom is to be fed to the cancellation bear this season, it’ll be one of his.
With We Are Men axed early in the season, and How I Met Your Mother in its final season, CBS doesn’t have to cancel any more of its existing sitcoms, particularly if it keeps the same four sitcom hours on the schedule next season. They could still premiere two new Fall sitcoms by holding Mike & Molly on the bench like they did this season. But there are reasonable scenarios under which they’d need to cancel at least one more sitcom (like a reduction back to three sitcom hours).
If another CBS sitcom is to be canceled, it’ll either be Mom, a freshman, and the lowest rated of the current CBS sitcoms, or Two And A Half Men, a very expensive, and now just average rated show.
The bear’s still got both predicted as “likely to be renewed”. The bear’s not sure he’s going to get much more information before late April that will move that prediction before his final thumbs up or thumbs down. It should be noted that TAAHM is exactly the kind of show that exists in one the bear’s blind spots, an old expensive show with just passable ratings. It’s not unknown for such shows to be canceled while the bear is predicting renewal.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|:oops:||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|:cry: :cry:||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|:| :| :|||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|:) :) :) :)||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.