FOX: 'Rake' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 28th, 2014

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 26, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Enlisted (F) :oops: 0.42
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.42
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.72
Dads de facto canceled 0.77
Bones (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.88
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.94
Rake :| :| :| 0.94
Almost Human :| :| :| 1.05
American Dad final season on Fox 1.16
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.17
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.27
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Simpsons renewed 1.56
The Following :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.42
Glee renewed

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Rake's premiere rating of 1.7 for adults 18-49 is close enough to the borderline for renewal and cancellation for a Fox drama that the Cancellation Bear is going to start his prediction for it as a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal. Expect that to change with future results. Perhaps soon.

Should Rake's soft start give hope to Almost Human fans? Or will it be just another reason to be bitter if Almost Human is eventually canceled? Your guess is as good as the bear's at this point.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Mac

    Is there really no hope for Raising Hope? They should give them a Chance!

  • Dan

    Well, with The Following plummeting last night we may have an interesting race to the finish.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    Raising Hope has had 4 really good seasons, I think that’s enough. Better to go out on a relatively high note. I’ll miss it, but I have new shows on Fox I like.

    With that said, I’m OK with Fox canceling Almost Human. They have so many projects waiting in the wings for next season, they don’t need to try to see if AH’s ratings will improve next year.

  • DenverDean

    I don’t know if I would’ve included the overinflated TF (SP) in the index as a metric. As we now know, TF 2.0 in its regular timeslot is a better gauge similar to what happened with Intelligence on CBS.

  • http://tvbythenumbers.com Bill Gorman

    “I don’t know if I would’ve included the overinflated TF (SP) in the index as a metric. As we now know, TF 2.0 in its regular timeslot is a better gauge similar to what happened with Intelligence on CBS.”

    I did include it, but I may later reconsider that!

    Update: Reconsidered. Next week’s Index will not include it.

  • Oliver

    You’re being awfully kind to Rake.

  • Tommy Mickens

    I would at this point downgrade Mindy to likely to be cancelled. Earlier in the season it really was on the bubble when it was equal to or slightly better than ratings for B99 and others not named New Girl because if all the freshmen shows failed, TMP would probably be the “well, we probably need to renew more than one sitcom and the ratings are steady-ish for TMP, and though we’ll have to do two more years at least we’ll get a little syndication money out of it at the end”. TMP still could be renewed, but as its ratings are now steadily worse than B99, I’m leaning more towards a B99/New Girl renewal with a TMP cancellation. Why would they want to invest in two more full seasons of TMP now that B99 is showing slight growth potential?

  • tedtalks

    The Following is on the bubble and fading fast

  • THE OLD MAN

    Can’t wait for next week’s Index to follow “The Following.”

  • seehuts

    Rake should not be a hour show.

  • Leon

    Almost Human has done well as of late for FOX, this 3 week break is going to do it no favors but if it can hold up I see no reason not to renew it! It’s a great pair with sleepy hollow!

  • Lukes

    It will be interested to see the position of the Following next week…

  • merrrranga

    @Mac

    i see what you did there… clever.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    Enlisted rising to a 1.0 is a positive sign, if it would grow again or atleast stay at that level, I think they should give it a test episode after Idol at 9:31 on Wednesday

  • Gel E. Beans

    That 1.0 has to hold or grow first.

  • tomko44

    Rake was the most aggravating TV show I have seen in ages. It was nearly unwatchable. May the Bear feast upon it fetid carcass!

  • a p garcia

    I object that Rake and New Girl have the same renew/cancel numbers. I would rather watch NG any day of the week

  • TV#1

    Possible Fall 2014 Schedule…

    Mon:
    Gotham
    Sleepy Hollow

    Tue:
    New Drama
    New Girl
    Brooklyn Nine-nine

    Wed:
    Bones
    Backstrom

    Thur:
    The X-Factor

    Fri:
    Kitchen Nightmares
    Glee

    Sun:
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    Family Guy
    Bordertown

  • Dan

    Rake definitely wont return for a second season, it will burn through its order and then more room will given next season to the final Bones & Glee seasons.

    Does this give hope to Almost Human, initially I thought yes but remember this is FOX, 2011-2012 they axed Terra Nova, The Finder, and Alcatraz all of which were moderately rated and renewed Touch.

    FOX could simply cancel Rake & Almost Human and just have Sleepy Hollow renewed from this season. They dont need Almost Human and with all the new shows they have next season they may not have the room. Hopefully when Almost Human finishes its run, FOX moves Bones back to Mondays and doesnt air another episode on fridays.

    The Following’s recent 2.0 may be cause for worry but as long as it doesnt go that much below that, it will likely be renewed for midseason to timeshare with Sleepy Hollow.

    If Bones and Glee have full final seasons and Sleepy Hollow and The Following timeshare each other, with The X Factor getting trimmed (and timeshared with Idol) and FOX having their 2 hour comedy block Sundays and Tuesdays, their may not be a need to renew Almost Human or Rake.

    I will say this though, the FOX renew cancel index of this year is much more interesting than last year with the Glee/Touch/Cleveland Show roundtable.

  • Dan

    @TV#1 – Nah more like this

    Monday
    8:00 Gotham
    9:00 Sleepy Hollow / The Following

    Tuesday
    8:00 Brooklyn Nine Nine
    8:30 The Mindy Project (OR NEW COMEDY)
    9:00 New Girl
    9:30 NEW COMEDY

    Wednesday
    8:00 X Factor / Idol

    Thursday
    8:00 New Drama
    9:00 Glee

    Friday
    8:00 Bones
    9:00 Master Chef Junior / Kitchen Nightmares

    Sunday
    8:00 The Simpsons
    8:30 Bob’s Burgers
    9:00 Family Guy
    9:30 NEW COMEDY / Border Town

    Timesharing works for FOX so if The Following gets renewed, both that and Sleepy Hollow should share a slot and paired with a new drama. FOX should keep the 2 hour comedy Tues but move B99 back to 8 and if Mindy is renewed air it at 8:30, keep New Girl at 9 and air a new show out of it at 9:30. X Factor will probably be renewed but trimmed to a 2 hour Wed so when Idol comes along they can timeshare and in terms of Thursday a new drama and Glee could air there. If the new drama succeeds than it can air with Idol midseason, if it fails than Glee can air its remaining order with Idol. Bones will likely stay on Fridays at 8 and Masterchef and Kitchen Nightmares will timeshare.

    Next season is all about trimming the fat especially for FOX, ABC and CW. Get rid of all bubble shows and use what works, especially timesharing.

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