FOX: 'Rake' Starts As A "Toss Up" To Be Canceled Or Renewed

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

January 28th, 2014

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 26, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Enlisted (F) :oops: 0.42
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.42
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.72
Dads de facto canceled 0.77
Bones (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.88
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.88
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.94
Rake :| :| :| 0.94
Almost Human :| :| :| 1.05
American Dad final season on Fox 1.16
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.17
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.27
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Simpsons renewed 1.56
The Following :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 2.42
Glee renewed

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Rake's premiere rating of 1.7 for adults 18-49 is close enough to the borderline for renewal and cancellation for a Fox drama that the Cancellation Bear is going to start his prediction for it as a "toss up" for cancellation or renewal. Expect that to change with future results. Perhaps soon.

Should Rake's soft start give hope to Almost Human fans? Or will it be just another reason to be bitter if Almost Human is eventually canceled? Your guess is as good as the bear's at this point.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • David Howell

    The FOX situation is very fluid and unpredictable. So many schedule possibilities.

    What I will say is this: the Utopia pickup proves they weren’t joking about year-round programming. That format is designed to last a year, and from hearing about it, I don’t see it working otherwise. What I’ve no idea about is how in the world they schedule it – it’s a nightly stripped show in its native Netherlands, but that doesn’t fit US scheduling (see also: Big Brother). How that’s scheduled is going to be very significant, as it dictates the available space for scripted shows.

    As if that didn’t make it complicated enough – though it does – the SH/Following tag team is no longer a given, Animation Domination is being broken up for Cosmos, and there’s a football-shaped elephant in the room with TNF.

    I’ll predict this much – XF is gone (Cowell is returning to the UK show, that’s a big sign), Glee S6 gets dumped off as unobtrusively as possible (Friday? Summer? Online?!?), and Bones stays on Friday but ppossibly goes to the other hour with an unscripted (presumably Ramsey) lead-in.

  • JakeWisconsin

    Whoa whoa whoa. Even if The Following was football inflated, why would you not include it in the index? You included Intelligence’s first episode. If you watched both episodes, you know that the special preview was really the season premiere, no matter how FOX labelled the Monday episode! I don’t mean to tell you what to do but please leave the first episode in the index.

  • jason

    They need to cancel the Mindy project

  • Nancy

    @Jason

    No.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    I rarely do fantasy schedules but I think I’ll take a shot at it. Here’s what I think Fox should do for the 2014-2015 season.

    Monday:
    8:00 Gotham
    9:00 Sleepy Hollow / The Following

    Tuesday:
    8:00 Brooklyn 99
    8:30 The Mindy Project
    9:00 New Girl
    9:30 New Comedy

    Wednesday:
    8:00 X-Factor / American Idol

    Thursday:
    8:00 Bones
    9:00 Backstrom

    Friday:
    8:00 Master Chef Junior / Kitchen Nightmares
    9:00 Glee

    Sunday:
    8:00 The Simpsons
    8:30 Bob’s Burgers
    9:00 Family Guy
    9:30 New Comedy

    Midseason:
    Almost Human
    New Comedy

    Thoughts? Go easy on me.

  • iSayso

    I would rather see this photo associated with The CW. It needs a big blood feast.

  • rehabber

    I tried watching Rake and only got to 30 minutes, it was so silly and boring. Much rather watch Almost Human, so that right there is a kiss of death for the show. ;)

  • Elise

    At this point I think FOX is trying to “use” its viewers of Almost Human. If they come right out and say they are going to cancel people will stop watching and the advertisers get pissed. I don’t think FOX has any intention of renewing this show despite how good it is or that the following is growing. FOX should be ashamed of itself for being too chicken to come out and announce its decision whether to renew or not!

  • HV

    Here are my predictions from most likely canceled -> renewed. The line is the split.

    Raising Hope
    Enlisted
    Dads
    Rake
    The Mindy Project
    Almost Human
    -
    Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    The Following
    Bones
    New Girl
    Family Guy

    Almost Human and Brooklyn Nine-Nine could potentially go the other way. The others are definitely going the way that I put them.

  • Grimman

    Rake is dumb. Couldn’t finish the first episode.

  • Isobel

    The Australian Rake is great but I agree the American version doesn’t work, they changed the whole feel of it too much

  • David Howell

    FOX is actually more predictable than I thought. They’ve ordered a bunch of shows for 13 without a pilot. Like that worked for NBC. Fortunately, they could probably plug the gaps quickly with more Utopia if they had to, as it seems like a show that could be done that way easily. (It’s a nightly stripped show in its native Netherlands, same as Big Brother.)

    It seems like Hieroglyph is picked up for 13, so is Backstrom, and I suspect Gotham is too. There’s one new live action comedy pickup (Mulaney) and one cartoon (Bordertown). Based on that…

    MON: 8 Gotham / Almost Human, 9 Sleepy Hollow / The Following
    TUES: 8 Glee, 9 New Girl, 9:30 Brooklyn Nine-Nine
    WED: 8 Dream Date / Idol, 9 Mulaney / Idol, 9:30 new comedy (Idol on some weeks)
    THU: 8 Utopia / Idol, 9 Hieroglyph / Backstrom
    FRI: 8 Masterchef Jr / Kitchen Nightmares, 9 Bones

    The only problem is that Utopia needs a place in the spring (and Thanksgiving, and baseball weeks, but those can be in place of a rerun somewhere else, most likely Wednesday 9). This would have been a million times easier to schedule if FOX hadn’t blundered into a 44-episode order for Glee, as they could’ve just cancelled that and gone with a Tuesday comedy block! (They could white-flag it to Friday, but Ramsey/Bones is just too good to break up, especially as Glee skews young and would be slaughtered on Friday.)

  • luka

    Mon
    20.00 – Gotham
    21.00 – Sleepy Hollow

    Tue
    20.00 – New Comedy (start after NFL sept 28)
    20.30 – New Comedy (start after NFL sept 28)
    21.00 – Brooklyn 9-9
    21.30 – New girl

    Wen
    20.00 – Almost Human
    21.00 – UTOPIA

    Thu
    20.00 – MasterChef: Junior
    21.00 – Backstorm

    Fri
    20.00 – Bones
    21.00 – Glee (finale season)

  • StevieH

    I can see all FOX dramas being 13 episode seasons from now on, except Bones that is for it’s last season.

    Monday:
    New Drama | Almost Human
    Sleepy Hollow | The Following

    Tuesday:
    Brooklyn 9-9
    New Comedy
    New Girl
    New Comedy

    Wednesday:
    The X Factor | American Idol

    Thursday:
    Utopia | American Idol
    New Drama | 2 New Comedies

    Friday:
    Bones
    Glee | New Drama

    Sunday:
    The Simpsons
    Bob’s Burgers
    Family Guy
    New Animation

  • Tripp

    Wow mindy new girl b99 all suck huge dicks!!!! Kill your self if you like any of those shows…

  • HeadlessHorseman

    Bones renewed for Season 10.

  • Tom

    I suspect Rake’s ratings to drop substantially. The pilot just seemed too scattershot and changed tone way too much. The show needs to decide what it is going to be. Is it a dramedy? A straight comedy? I just couldn’t get a feel for what they were going for.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    @Tom
    I agree. Rake was all over the place. It couldn’t decide whether or not it should be a serious drama, or a light hearted dramedy.

  • StevenD

    Fantasy schedule:

    Monday:
    8 Hieroglyph/ Almost Human (13 each)
    9 Sleepy Hollow/ The Following (13 each)

    Tuesday
    8 Mulaney (13-22)
    8:30 Tina Fey produced college comedy (forget the name) (13-22)
    9 New Girl (22)
    9:30 Brooklyn Nine Nine (22)

    Wednesday:
    8 Backstrom (Most likely 22 unless it bombs)
    9 Gotham (Most likely 22 unless it bombs)

    Thursday:
    8-10 X Factor/American Idol

    Friday:
    8 Bones (22)
    9 Master Jr./ Kitchen Nightmares

    Sunday:
    8 The Simpsons (22)
    8:30 Bobs Burgers (22)
    9 Family Guy (22)
    9:30 Bordertown 13)/ Dads (13)

    OR
    Monday:
    8 Bones
    9 Sleepy Hollow/Hieroglyph

    Friday:
    8: Master Jr./ Kitchen Nightmares
    9 Glee

  • Rebecca

    Still hoping Mindy survives; I really like that show. I’ve always loved RH so I hope it gets renewed, but if not I’ll enjoy what’s left. Enlisted is fun, too. And of all the new shows on FOX I’ve been happiest with B99 and SH. I guess I won’t try Rake…sounds like it’s pretty bad, lol. I still watch Dads online once I’m caught up on the better shows.

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