NBC: Are 'Dracula' & 'Hannibal' The Offspring Of 'The Jay Leno Show'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 28th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Bloody-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 26, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.58
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: (canceled 1/28) 0.62
Dracula* (F) :cry: :cry: 0.66
Community :| :| :| 0.92
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.96
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.97
Revolution :| :| :| 1.07
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago PD :) :) :) :) 1.27
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Blacklist renewed 1.80

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The Cancellation Bear remembers the howls of woe from the local NBC affiliates (and outrage from Hollywood) when, to try and save money, NBC replaced its weekday 10pm shows with The Jay Leno Show.

The bear always thought NBC's strategic error was one of degree. Going low cost in 5 hours all at once was too much for the inertia filled TV industry to handle. Had they dribbled out one new low cost hour each season, NBC could have boiled the frog without all the frantic jumping around.

That's what they seem to be doing lately with the low cost additions of Dracula and Hannibal to their schedule. Both suffer from well below average (even for NBC) ratings. But even with last season's woeful ratings, Hannibal was renewed, indicating it had to be very cheap for NBC.

Is Dracula cheap enough to survive it's terrible ratings this season? The bear doesn't think so, but with the Hannibal lesson in mind, he's not certain. That's why he'll keep the show as just "likely to be canceled" until decision time.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • TT

    I sure would love to see Revolution and Community renewed but I’m not holding my breath. Networks love to ax my shows.

  • gerry

    i think it was more than just budget that kept hannibal around. i don’t see dracula being long for this world…

  • Simon

    Hopefully with Grimm as a lead-in Hannibal will benefit better than Dracula did

  • TV God

    I still think that Sean Saves The World will find a way to get renewed. Whether it be on NBC or TVLand.

  • steven

    We are we still talking about The Jay Leno Show? It was canceled 4 years ago.

  • Mac (Philippines)

    Shows here in my country show in different networks, like TaaHM and TBBT airs on Jack TV and Hart of Dixie airs on ETC 2nd Avenue, I don’t suppose we affect any of these ratings one bit? Episodes usually air 2-5 days from its original air date (in the US). I hope they renew Revolution, best thing on Philippine TV right now.

  • Dan

    @steven, a business decision made 4 years ago is still having a lingering effect today, why would’t people talk about it?

  • Dave Jones

    @Steven: The point is that the 10 pm timeslot is dying. Maybe NBC recognized that when they tried to foist Leno on the world, maybe not. You can’t deny that 10 pm drama ratings are poor even for the good shows. Plus the locals are getting antsy about putting their own stuff, however cheesy, in that slot. The 11 pm news slot is just about dead.

  • Jeff (Canada)

    I don’t see NBC keeping Dracula around. They still have Hannibal, plus Crossbones waiting to air. Not to mention The Wolfman series they recently ordered.

  • Kitsune

    Revolution is above the average. It will probably be renewed.

  • Fuzzynutz

    Bring back Whitney Cummings!!!!

  • Percysowner

    You can’t deny that 10 pm drama ratings are poor even for the good shows. Plus the locals are getting antsy about putting their own stuff, however cheesy, in that slot.

    Although I can’t disagree that the 10 pm slot is troubled, Blacklist and Scandal do not have poor ratings, even for shows that are scheduled earlier in the night. Other shows are doing less well at 10 pm., but it is not a given that 10 pm is dying yet.

  • Tommy Mickens

    I agree on Dracula, but I’d move Community and Parenthood to likely renewal. Community shows steady ratings compared to the absolute bombs that the freshmen sitcoms have been, but also the “6 seasons and a movie” meme only needs one (possibly very short) season and only a one-hour tv “movie” wrap-up of it to complete the meme and help with post-series advertising and sales (such as DVD box sets). So for all this, I’d be really surprised if NBC doesn’t give Community a short wrap-up final season at the least. It’s not guaranteed one though, hence “likely” renewal instead of “certain”. For Parenthood, well, it’s ratings aren’t great, but they’re also not in the sewer that many NBC shows are and its ratings are steady. If it’s cheap enough, I don’t see why they wouldn’t keep it around another year.

  • John

    If Dracula is really that inexpensive for NBC, I would expect a second season to show up on SyFy rather than network television next year.

  • Patrick Ausgewahlt

    Jay was getting low 1’s by the end. Still was better than season 2 of Smash, Prime Suspect, The Firm, Awake, Do No Harm, Hannibal, Ready for Love, The Playboy Club, Rock Center with Brian Williams. I read way back when that it cost only $400,000 an episode for the Jay Leno Show. Only Rock Center could I see being so cheap.

  • MARTY

    how nbc can justify renewing any thursday show is unbelievable, the ratings are pathetic

  • STEVEN

    BECAUSE ITS 2014 LETS MOVE ON LOL

  • PRW

    Why not everyone just go to 2 primetime hours? 10 PM is for cable nowadays

  • cimmer

    How do Dracula and Hannibal do overseas? The only reason I ask is because I think, as with movies, that’s getting to have more input into the equation and might have something to do with figuring the costs to run a and make a show. Obviously, shows still need advertisers but so many companies are multinational now and if a show is doing really well in a country that advertisers want to hit, maybe that figures into the decision?

  • CBSviewer

    Hannibal will probably do better than Dracula. I hope NBC will promote it well during the Olympics.

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