NBC: Are 'Dracula' & 'Hannibal' The Offspring Of 'The Jay Leno Show'?

Categories: Cancel/Renew Index,Cancel/Renew NBC Shows

Written By

January 28th, 2014

Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information:


Bloody-bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - January 26, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Welcome To The Family* canceled 0.52
The Michael J. Fox Show :oops: 0.58
Ironside* canceled 0.61
Sean Saves The World :oops: (canceled 1/28) 0.62
Dracula* (F) :cry: :cry: 0.66
Community :| :| :| 0.92
Parenthood :| :| :| 0.96
Parks & Recreation :) :) :) :) 0.97
Revolution :| :| :| 1.07
Grimm (F) :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.09
Chicago PD :) :) :) :) 1.27
Law & Order: SVU :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
Chicago Fire :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.40
The Blacklist renewed 1.80

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The Cancellation Bear remembers the howls of woe from the local NBC affiliates (and outrage from Hollywood) when, to try and save money, NBC replaced its weekday 10pm shows with The Jay Leno Show.

The bear always thought NBC's strategic error was one of degree. Going low cost in 5 hours all at once was too much for the inertia filled TV industry to handle. Had they dribbled out one new low cost hour each season, NBC could have boiled the frog without all the frantic jumping around.

That's what they seem to be doing lately with the low cost additions of Dracula and Hannibal to their schedule. Both suffer from well below average (even for NBC) ratings. But even with last season's woeful ratings, Hannibal was renewed, indicating it had to be very cheap for NBC.

Is Dracula cheap enough to survive it's terrible ratings this season? The bear doesn't think so, but with the Hannibal lesson in mind, he's not certain. That's why he'll keep the show as just "likely to be canceled" until decision time.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • THE OLD MAN

    A real LOL headline! That bloody bear, really!

  • Dylan

    I was very surprised that Hannibal always did so poorly in ratings. It’s an extremely well done series. The cast, the writing and the cinematography are just phenomenal with each episode.

  • Eve

    Hannibal was renewed because it was relatively cheap and critically acclaimed. Dracula… not that much.

    Revolution being sixth bothers me… it needs to pass Grimm.

    I think everything above Parks deserve a renewal.

  • Bob

    I really think they should bring back Law and Order. It would do pretty well. Look how it does with repeats.

  • Rebooted

    Renewed: Blacklist, SVU, Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, Parenthood, Parks, Community, Grimm, 1 of Revolution or Dracula

    Cancelled: Everything Else

  • Paul928

    What an interesting thought. That Leno is responsible for these shows.

    Well, if that’s the case, I guess there IS a silver lining (for me, anyway),
    from that whole Leno mess.
    Although I seem to be one of a dwindling few that actually watches NBC, I find the stuff they broadcast to be (usually) worth checking out (although I’m not a fan of the two “Chicago” shows, which will probably be around for years).

    As for the two shows mentioned, I enjoyed Hannibal, and found Dracula to be superb (yes, yes…I’m that guy).

    I recently heard somewhere that Dracula does well in the international market, and that alone might manage to give it a second season. Not sure how true that is, but since it is owned by Universal…maybe? Maybe?

  • David Howell

    The coproduction dramas seem to be a good way of looking more respectable than they are, so I certainly see them staying in that direction on Friday and, indeed, possibly beyond. Hannibal benefitted from serious critical acclaim and Dracula didn’t, so I’m not confident Dracula gets renewed – two smileys sounds about right, but I’d be completely unsurprised if it’s renewed. Any replacement would be another coproduction, I’d fancy.

    The comedies are relying on some serious post-Voice bleed from About a Boy and Growing Up Fisher, assuming that’s what’s going there.

  • Guardian Owl

    I enjoyed Dracula enough that if it came back for a second season I would watch it, but if not at least it ended in such that it is somewhat satisfying.

  • TV#1

    Possible Fall 2014 Schedule

    Mon:
    The Voice
    The Blacklist

    Tue:
    The Voice
    State of Affairs
    Chicago Fire

    Wed:
    New Comedy
    New Comedy
    New Drama
    Chicago PD

    Thur:
    The Biggest Loser
    Law and Order: SVU
    Revolution

    Fri:
    Believe
    Grimm
    Dracula

    Sun:
    SNF

    Mid-Season:
    Parenthood
    Parks & Rec.
    Community
    And probably a few other new comedies and dramas

  • Kissan

    Here is my NBC 2014/2015 schedule:

    Monday

    8:00-The Voice(Sept-Dec)/Celebrity Apprentice(Jan-Mar)/The Voice(Mar-May) 4.0
    10:00-State Of Affairs(new series) 3.3

    Tuesday

    8:00-About A Boy 2.2
    8:30-Mission Control(new series) 2.2
    9:00-The Voice(Sept-Dec)/Maya Rudolph Variety Show(Jan-Mar)The Voice(Mar-May) 3.3
    10:00-Chicago Fire 2.2

    Wednesday

    8:00-Tooken(new series) 2.5
    8:30-Marry Me(new series) 2.3
    9:00-Emerald City(new series) 2.8
    10:00-Tin Man(new series,Sept-Jan)/Constatine(new series,Feb-May) 2.4

    Thursday

    8:00-The Biggest Loser(Sept-Jan)/Space Race(new series,Feb-May) 2.1
    9:00-The Blacklist 2.8
    10:00-Chicago PD 2.3

    Friday

    8:00-Dateline(Sept-Dec)/Community and Parks & Rec(13 episode final seasons,Jan-Mar)/SVU(Mar-May) 1.5
    9:00-Grimm 1.7
    10:00-SVU(Sept-Mar)/Revolution(Mar-May) 1.6

    Sunday(Midseason)

    8:00-Repeats & Specials(Jan-Feb)/The Bible A.D.(Mar-Apr)/The Pro & Mr Robinson(new series,Apr-May) 2.5
    9:00-Repeats and Specials(Jan-Feb)/Old Souls and Bad Judge(new series,Mar-May) 2.0
    10:00-Parenthood(15 episode final season) 1.7

  • Ally Oop

    Why don’t the networks put comedies at 10pm? After all, people are up for laughs at the 11pm hour.

  • Ally Oop

    NBC will had 14 dramas for this season including Parenthood, Blacklist, Grimm, Revolution, Ironside, Chicago PD, Chicago Fire, Dracula, Law & Order: SVU, Crossbones, Hannibal, Believe, Crisis and The Night Shift. That’s 6 returning and 8 new. Looking at this, I would say Revolution is safe thus far but that could change if any of Hannibal, Believe, Crisis, Night Shift, or Crossbones stabilize at better ratings than it. And there’s also the chance Revolution’s ratings could fall though at present they are stable. Revolution is in the same position as Reign–neither get high enough ratings alone to warrant renewal but if the spring shows all tank and the shows themselves remain stable then they’ll be back. Perpetual bubble shows they are.

  • London Town

    @Kissan

    Some nice ideas there, but Emerald City is being prepared for ‘off-cycle’, so won’t be on in Fall. I would personally switch the 8pm and 9pm hours on your Tuesday schedule. Your 2 hour Sunday comedy block is an exciting idea, though I wonder if it would suffer against Fox’s animated block. NBC have some awesome sounding comedy pilots in The Pro, Bad Judge and Old Souls, so I hope they can find a good home on the schedule.

  • iSayso

    Bring back E.R!

  • iSayso

    Like, “ER: SVU.”

  • KJ Styles

    I have an epiphany regarding NBC.

    I honestly don’t think they care all that much about their scripted shows ratings because Sunday Night Football and The Voice carry them enough to be ahead of other networks for the year. Sure, they’d like for shows to do better…but if they don’t then they’ll just cancel them and repeat the same song and dance next season. This will continue as long as they have SNF and The Voice.

  • Adam

    Really don’t care what NBC does as long as it renews Chicago Fire and Revolution. I’m so happy with the ratings for CF this season, I didn’t expect it to return so strong, yes its declining recently but it could improve (hopefully). I was gutted to see the ratings for Revolution once it moved to Wednesdays but I expected it, I’ve been quite shocked at how stable it has been so I suppose its a positive sign…I hope.

  • Rebooted

    @ Kissan

    Similar schedule to my own, but Emerald City will 99% not be on Wednesday’s next year.

  • Rollie

    2014-2015

    Sundays (After Football)
    7:00 Dateline
    8:00 American Dream Builders (13)
    9:00 NEW DRAMA (13)
    10:00 Believe (13)

    Mondays
    8:00 The Voice/Maya Rudolph Variety Show/The Voice
    9:00 Hollywood Game Night (January-March)
    10:00 NEW DRAMA (13-22)

    Tuesdays
    8:00 The Biggest Loser/About A Boy (13)
    8:30 Tooken(13 starting January)
    9:00 The Voice Results/Crisis (10)/The Voice Results
    10:00 Chicago Fire (22)

    Wednesdays
    8:00 Parenthood (13 Final)/NEW DRAMA (13)
    9:00 Chicago PD (22)
    10:00 NEW DRAMA (13-22)

    Thursdays
    8:00 Community (13 Final)/Growing Up Fisher (13)
    8:30 Mr. Robinson (13-22)*MJFS goes here if cancelled for 13 episodes
    9:00 Parks & Recreation (22 Final)
    9:30 Working The Engels (13-22) *SSTW goes here if cancelled for 13 episodes
    10:00 Dateline

    Fridays
    8:00 The Slap and other Miniseries and the such
    9:00 Law & Order: SVU (22)
    10:00 NEW DRAMA (13-22) *Hannibal or Dracula goes here if cancelled for 13.

  • HeadlessHorseman

    I think the reason the Bear is so mad in the picture up there is because there are too many toss ups right now.

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