CW Predictions: 'The Tomorrow People' vs. 'Reign' Race Gets Interesting

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 4th, 2014

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear_book

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - February 2, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast :oops: 0.44
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled 0.50
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.64
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.84
Reign :| :| :| 0.89
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

-
For just the second time this season, The Tomorrow People outrated Reign in the same week (with adults 18-49). And it was just after the Cancellation Bear noted that TTP would be canceled before Reign was. He still thinks that's the case, but it's possible both will be renewed.

It's certain that at least one of the four shows (Reign, The Tomorrow People, Star-Crossed, The 100) will be renewed, and possibly two of them. It would be stunning if three of them were renewed, and there's no chance all four will be renewed.

The bear's not able to handicap those different alternatives very well until he sees the ratings for the two spring premiere dramas. But there will be plenty of time for that. Star-Crossed premieres on February 17. Stay tuned.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
-
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
-
Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

-
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Science Advisor

    Now if only you could say the same thing about the shows themselves.

  • sixseasonsandamovie

    I’m betting on Reign because TTP will be moved to mondays, which is the most loaded day of the week and where all big 4 networks pull a 2.0 average.

    The CW doesn’t show much confidence on Star-Crossed as they are going to premiere the show during the Olympics, it’s likely DOA, The 100, meanwhile, is the biggest factor, if this show succeeds, it is the end of the line for both since CW bar is higher and they have one more hit.

  • Katie

    TTP has to hold onto its rating (or get better ratings) than the current shows on Monday night. Honestly I love Reign so i’m hoping it gets renewed BUT I’m starting to wonder if TTP can hold onto a good rating on Monday that it may be renewed as well either for midseason or perhaps the new limited 10 episode season that more and more networks are trying out.

  • TV Sucks

    Zzzzzing!

  • Lucas

    C´mon TTP!!!

  • Tommy Mickens

    Despite everyone framing this as “Reign Vs. TTP” as if only one can be renewed, I still think both have a good shot of renewal, as long as neither of their ratings go down too low the rest of the season and neither mid-season show is a hit.

  • soggybiscuit

    Vampire Diaries still #1 show on CW, despite what Supernatural fans have you believe

  • Winston Mize

    if averages .5 which is above BATB then that’s an improvement and it could scrape a renewal.

  • Kissan Capers

    My CW 2014/2015 schedule:

    Monday

    8:00-The Flash(new series)
    9:00-Supernatural:Tribes(new series)

    Tuesday

    8:00-The Originals
    9:00-Supernatural

    Wednesday

    8:00-Arrow
    9:00-The 100

    Thursday

    8:00-TVD
    9:00-Reign

    Friday

    8:00-Carrie Diaries(Oct-Jan)/Whose Line?(Jan-May)
    9:00-HOD(22 episode final season)

  • sooverit

    One day, the cancellation bear will be extinct.

  • deathlyhallows92

    I hate how close it is between them, it makes it so unpredictable and waiting on your favourite show to be renewed is already nerve wracking :/ I’d like to see both renewed so I’m kinda hoping both Star-Crossed and The 100 flop. But if it comes down to only 1 being renewed I really hope it’s Reign.

  • Eren

    My wish program for The CW 2014-2015

    Monday:
    08:00 The Originals (2nd season – 22 episodes)
    09:00 Supernatural: Tribes (1st season – 13 episodes)

    Tuesday:
    08:00 The Flash (1st season – 13 episodes)
    09:00 Supernatural (10th season – 22 episodes)

    Wednesday:
    08:00 Arrow (3rd season – 22 episodes)
    09:00 Boots (1st season – 13 episodes)

    Thursday:
    08:00 The Vampire Diaries (6th season – 22 episodes)
    09:00 ZE (1st season – 13 episodes)

    Friday:
    08:00 Jane the Virgin (1st season – 13 episodes) / Dance of the Hours (1st season – 13 episodes)
    09:00 Hart of Dixie (4th and final season – 22 episodes)

    Midseason:
    The 100 (2nd season – 13 episodes)
    iZombies (1st season – 13 episodes)
    Colony (1st season – 13 episodes)
    Red (1st season – 13 episodes)

  • soggybiscuit

    TCD won’t be back, izombie will probably be at least a midseason show

  • DM

    The CW normally airs 3 new dramas in the Fall. I doubt they would air two new dramas together, even if they are both spinoffs. They would want to use their highest rated shows as lead ins to the new series, if history tells us anything it will be TVD, Supernatural, and Arrow, or they could use The Originals as well. I see Supernatural moving to Mondays since they can trust that it will do well no matter where they put it and would use it to launch another new series and fix Monday. You left out ANTM for Fridays. No way TCD gets renewed.

  • http://how-i-met-your-mother.wikia.com/ Babar Suhail

    Jane the Virgin? Seriously?

  • sooverit

    I’m still trying to figure out who the target audience for that show is.

  • Winston Mize

    I think Jane the Virgin is Pedowitz attempt at trolling the Pilot season. No way that show makes it. So he ordered it with no intention of picking it up, but he had to order something…

  • Restless

    Wow that’s a lot of new shows.

  • Anesu

    I’d love for both shows to be renewed they are seriously getting good.
    If TTP pulls 0.7’s on monday it will be renewed thats better than their ratings that day right now. Reign has the edge of being the most unique thing on the network plus Mark P has already hinted that this show has his favor so .If TTP does well on monday l’d pair it with The Flash on that night , the pairing could work ratings wise . So pretty much if push comes to shove they are renewing reign over TTP.

    LOL the race is truly getting unpredictably interesting.

  • Alexi

    I like both The Tomorrow People and Reign, but the promos of Star-Crossed and The 100 make me believe that I will like them, too.
    Cw will probably renew two or three between those four series, so one or two of them will be cancelled, I’ll be sad anyway u_u
    At least The Originals( I love it ^^) is safe, so far.

© 2014 Tribune Digital Ventures