CW Predictions: 'The Tomorrow People' vs. 'Reign' Race Gets Interesting

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 4th, 2014

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - February 2, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast :oops: 0.44
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled 0.50
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.64
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.84
Reign :| :| :| 0.89
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

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For just the second time this season, The Tomorrow People outrated Reign in the same week (with adults 18-49). And it was just after the Cancellation Bear noted that TTP would be canceled before Reign was. He still thinks that's the case, but it's possible both will be renewed.

It's certain that at least one of the four shows (Reign, The Tomorrow People, Star-Crossed, The 100) will be renewed, and possibly two of them. It would be stunning if three of them were renewed, and there's no chance all four will be renewed.

The bear's not able to handicap those different alternatives very well until he sees the ratings for the two spring premiere dramas. But there will be plenty of time for that. Star-Crossed premieres on February 17. Stay tuned.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • http://how-i-met-your-mother.wikia.com/ Babar Suhail

    I really don’t see TTP doing better on Mondays.

  • Ivan Ivanov

    I keep thinking that the carrie diaries should be renewed its pulling better rating than batb on monday and its almost catching up to hart of dixie and its on friday . Wherever they put on friday next season it wont do any better and it doest have a full season order becouse it doesnt need one its a 13E show and its doing great for the cw on friday. Another 13 E for next season will be enough and it might even grow . I think they should renew it , it will be a mistake if they dont. Just my opinion. Hart of dixie will do the same on friday and wont have any chance of getting better but TCD still have that chance of growing and maybe start more often to have 0.4 rating where HOD will stay at 0.3 and soon become the next nikita and it has 22E witch is more expensive i guess than TCD . Its perfect fall show and it deserves another chance to continue the sex and the city legacy :P

  • Winston Mize

    Last year BatB had his favor and was in almost the same ratings boat as Reign.
    He should cancel both, but he won’t.
    I think everyone is looking at it wrong. I think they know Reign is of no use to them, but TTP could be, that’s why they even bothered moving it, to see if it could at least maintain on another night. If so it’s renewed. If not they cancel it, move reign and get another BATB on their hands.

  • Brandy Danforth

    I agree that Reign will more Likley be renewed than TTP.Disaagree about cws faith in SC-they’re letting it self start:they think it will improve on HoDs numbers & lift TTP & don’t think it needs a leadin. Plus,its getting more promotion than 100& they promote most the shows they believe in.As for it going against Oplympics,they had to start it sometime so it will finish by June(unlike the 100)and they smart using it as counter programming for those not interested I sports.The 100 is exspensive so even if it starts well, it may not be renewd.I don’t know how CW will make the descion on the 100 when it season dosent end til June.What if starts well,gets renewed then crashes the rest of May and June?I wouldn’t count SC out yet either, everyone said Reign would be DOA /cancelled in three episodes yet it’s more Likley to be renewd than cancelled,more Likley to be renewd than TP ,the fifth highest rated show and got a full season.

  • soggybiscuit

    i think CW is gonna be a lot more aggressive in next season schedule, yes they will move TVD

    Monday

    8:00-The Vampire Diaries
    9:00-Supernatural:Tribes(new)

    Tuesday

    8:00-The Originals
    9:00-Supernatural

    Wednesday

    8:00-Arrow
    9:00-The 100(13 episodes)/New Midseason show

    Thursday

    8:00-The Flash(new)
    9:00-iZombie(new)

    Friday

    8:00-Reign/ANTM
    9:00-HOD/Reruns

  • Winston Mize

    HoD has never had a .3 or .2. TCD has. TCD reached a .7 last season and dropped immediately after and never came back up, and showed no growth this year.

  • Greg

    I always thought that if it’s between Reign and The Tomorrow People, CW should renew TTP. Reign has a better lead-in, and that’s why it beats TTP in some nights. TVD has never fallen below a 1.0 this season, whereas the same can’t be said for Arrow. Also, Reign is completely off brand for the network, if it were to move from this slot, it would get Beauty and the Beast-level ratings. Now the real test comes when TTP moves to Mondays: if it can muster at least a 0.5 when it moves to Mondays at 9, it should be brought back.

  • Alexi

    I like both shows but between The Tomorrow People and Reign the first is doing worse, because on paper it was and is more compatible with Arrow than Reign is with The Vampire Diaries. The Tomorrow People’s ratings so far went from 0.9 to 0.5, while Reign’s from 0.8 to 0.6. Let’s see what will happen in the next months with their ratings and the new ‘fighters’ for the renewal: Star-Crossed and The 100.

  • Joel

    Can someone explain the deal with Hart of Dixie? Why is it certain to be renewed when it’s ratings aren’t really impressive?

  • Ivan Ivanov

    yes I know that, but its on friday any show except maybe TVD, Arrow , TO, Supernatural will do any better so why cancel one think that has already found its place just to destroy another . Put TCD on fall and than in midseason just replaced it with something that just didnt work on any night and let it die but they should’t cancel a show that its cheap and for 13 E just doing the trick and the show doesnt even suck its great for its vewers its smart and interesting and with all those syfy shows they have they just need something else on that network :P And since they only have HOD as a scripted show that its not syfy and its obvistly ending next year what would they do order another that will most likely fail and keep putting them on friday and that it when they alreadu have a show that its not syfy and doing great on friday and it doesnt even need a full season order

  • Winston Mize

    Yes but, that’s the problem isn’t it. Arrow has been inconsistent this season. TTP is moving, so we will see what it can do without Arrow. Reign is staying put. But I guarantee you if renewed they would want to move it, which is a gamble because they have never aired it without the TVD lead in.
    As of last week their average in 18-49 season to date was-
    Reign-.64
    TTP-.63

  • Alexi

    Both Arrow and The Vampire Diaries are still strong, but not like last season. The Tomorrow People should be more compatible with its lead-in.
    The Vampire Diaries obtained a rating of 0.9 last Halloween and Reign got 0.6 that night.

  • Winston Mize

    If you believe in the Syndication Gods, then you are to assume they will grant Hart Of Dixie at least one more season to garner more episodes so there is an acceptable number to be sold into syndication and garner more revenue in the long run. Nikita which was performing worse was granted one last breath after its full third season by the gods for this reason.

  • Setheriel

    The Syndication Gods.

  • http://www.ian-morris.com/ Ian Morris

    Why wouldn’t they pair Arrow and The Flash, in your opinion. Surely that makes sense? Use the Flash lead-in to boost the new show?

  • http://www.ian-morris.com/ Ian Morris

    Reign is presumably more expensive to produce? I haven’t seen the show, but that sort of thing is usually expensive to put together.

  • Brandy Danforth

    HoD is very cheap to make

  • Greg

    Fair enough. TVD had one bad night and Reign held its own. I still maintain what I said.

  • starship

    Reign has 2 more episodes than TVD left this season, so they’ll have a chance to see how it does on its own. The reason Reign has better chances because its 18-34 ratings are better than TTP’s.

  • Brandy Danforth

    I’ve heard Reign will on it’s own in March for one episode.

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