CW Predictions: 'The Tomorrow People' vs. 'Reign' Race Gets Interesting

Categories: Cancel/Renew CW Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 4th, 2014

Click this link for the latest CW renewal / cancellation information:

bear_book

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 - February 2, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Nikita* (F) final season complete 0.30
Beauty And The Beast :oops: 0.44
The Carrie Diaries (F) de facto canceled 0.50
Hart Of Dixie :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.64
The Tomorrow People :| :| :| 0.84
Reign :| :| :| 0.89
Arrow :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.43
The Originals :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.48
Supernatural :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.62
Vampire Diaries :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.70

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For just the second time this season, The Tomorrow People outrated Reign in the same week (with adults 18-49). And it was just after the Cancellation Bear noted that TTP would be canceled before Reign was. He still thinks that's the case, but it's possible both will be renewed.

It's certain that at least one of the four shows (Reign, The Tomorrow People, Star-Crossed, The 100) will be renewed, and possibly two of them. It would be stunning if three of them were renewed, and there's no chance all four will be renewed.

The bear's not able to handicap those different alternatives very well until he sees the ratings for the two spring premiere dramas. But there will be plenty of time for that. Star-Crossed premieres on February 17. Stay tuned.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Brandy Danforth

    TTTP can only get 0.5 in fall with a compatible high rated leadin.Arrow & VD are rating about the same 1.00-1.2 this season so VD isnt that much better/higher rated leadin.Reign has stayed stable even when VD falls to 1.0 or 0.9 in prelims whereas TTP fell when Arrow did against WS and rose when Arrow did last week.TTP has declined from 0.9 to 0.5 in eight weeks,Reign much more stable from 0.8 to 0.6.Plus, as this article says,this is only the second time TTP beat Reign?Reign has been doing better than TTP since late OCT except last week.Reign does better online,social media,in 18-34 ( all important ),buzz,and has CWs support.

  • starship

    Agreed. He always orders a few absurd shows that he never has any intention to pick up and knows they’ll do terrible with test audiences, but WB and CBS probably want a certain number of pilots each year.

  • The_Straight_Edge_Savior

    TVD is not as strong as it was last year.

  • Adir

    They were should renew 90210 last year.

  • iampaddii

    This year’s freshmen really have to fight for their renewal. Currently it seems like Reign will be renewed and TTP canceled (unless it can get 0.6 on mondays. SC is just a gap filler unless its The CW’s first Monday hit in years… The 100 while will premiere with a lot of pressure. It looks very expensive therefore needs every good ratings. It’ll be really interesting to see which show will make…. :)

  • Brandy Danforth

    Reign is exspensive yes but not as much as people think cause it shoots in Toronto and is somewhat coproduced with a Candian company.TTP is exspensive with the special effects ,like Secret Circle a couple years ago.

  • Brandy Danforth

    TTP moving not because “Reigns no use to them but TP could be” but because TP wasntt keeping enough of Arrows audience but Reign is of VDs ( otherwise they would’ve moved it too). and they wanted a male skewing show to pair The 100 with.Plus, Pedowitz said reccently”there’s a point of over saturation of genre and well slowly move to family programming.”Also, TTP could be easily replaced by Flash or Hourman as male skewing superhero shows while Reign is different for CW.

  • Aryam Manzueta Avila

    My CW 2014/2015 schedule:

    Mondays
    8:00- The 100 / Star-Crossed
    9:00- *

    Tusday:
    8:00- The Originals
    9:00- Supernatural

    Wednesdays:
    8:00- Arrow
    9:00- The Flash

    Thursday:
    8:00- The Vampire Diaries
    9:00- *

    Fridays:
    8:00- ANTM (fall) / Whose Line… (Jan-May)
    9:00- Hart of Dixie

    *: Supernatural spin-off, The Tomorrow People or Reign

  • Greg

    No, TVD pretty consistently outrates Arrow. I can say Reign and TTP rate about the same 0.5-0.6 and be just as accurate as you.

    Reign only outperforms TTP by one tenth. But the ratings are not the point, as I said, considering that they’re moving TTP in March. The point is that Reign has no place in the CW’s schedule for next season. It’s not a match with anything. It’s not staying after The Vampire Diaries and it wouldn’t be paired with Arrow, Supernatural or The Originals. Its best option would be to go to Fridays and get paired with either ANTM or Hart of Dixie.

  • Brandy Danforth

    Synduication.Plus, it’s very cheap to make,incredibly stable in ratings and doing better than two shows(BatB,CD).

  • Winston Mize

    Reign barely retains half of TVD’s audience, I wouldn’t call that great retention. Last week, reign had .6 out of a 1.2 TTP had .7 out of a 1.1….And I would take anything a network head says with a grain of salt.
    They didn’t move reign because I feel they know it would fail elsewhere. it has done nothing to prove otherwise. Neither has TTP proven it can remain stable or rise elsewhere outside of Arrow, but they are giving it a chance. if they truly believed in reign, they would do the same. Reign WOULD NOT stay where it is if renewed because it’s bringing down the night. But they can’t say for sure how it would perform elsewhere either. So if they were to renew it, it would be a gamble. One they took on BATB, one they chose to play safe on TSC. What they decide this year is a mystery, but as long as they run neck and neck and continue to, I believe barring a major drop, they renew TTP and leave it where it is on Mondays, out of a new show.

  • Brandy Danforth

    They’ve never in 7 years moved a show after VD at Midseason.Why would they suddenly start? Why don’t we move every show not one of the top four around and let them loose viewers because of the move?sarcasm.Yes Reign retentions not great but neither is TP getting 0.5 out of 11-1.2.SC wasn’t cancelled just cause poor retention and thinking it would fail on another night(if that was the case,Nikita & BatB would’ve been cancelled too) but cause it declined all season(like TTP)& didn’t do well online or internationally & rumor has it Pedowitz didn’t like the show.Last week was one of only couple weeks that TTP had more than half extension.CW knows not to expect great retention out of VD by now after four seasons of new shows after it whereas this is Arrows first season leadin to a new show.

  • RobbieK

    a tween show on cw? shocking

  • Nightfall

    I personally believe that TTP will get axed and Reign gets a second chance on another night. As for the new upcoming shows, I don´t see that Star-Crossed has any chance of renewal, but The 100 looks decent, so it might get lucky.

    How I would schedule The CW next season:

    Monday:
    8:00 The Flash
    9:00 Supernatural

    Tuesday:
    8:00 The Originals
    9:00 Supernatural: Tribes (hopefully it gets a name change)

    Wednesday:
    8:00 Arrow
    9:00 The 100

    Thursday:
    8:00 The Vampire Diaries
    9:00 iZombie

    Friday:
    8:00 ANTM (late summer/early fall)/ Hart of Dixie (late fall/spring)
    9:00 Reign

    Plus one or two new Dramas as backup. Thoughts?

  • Winston Mize

    Brandy, I appreciate your enthusiasm but the sarcasm is not needed. The top four are not moving, nor was my discussion aimed at them, so it was silly and unwarranted to even go there. and one of my earlier comments calls that both should be cancelled. but I never said they should move reign, but the fact is they could move it, if they wanted to, to see how it would rate on another night, because if renewed that is surely where it would go history has proven that. The fact they did not, and since you want to go on history, history would prove that if they renew it & it will fall further, or they will cancel it. They moved TTP, to a trouble spot on mondays behind a new show which is not guarenteed to pull in the 1.0’s tvd does. They moved HoD to Friday, and Batb completely. Reign and TTP are within a .01 of point of each other. Therefore, if TTP proves it can thrive without the lead in Reign has, it is renewed and reign would be cancelled or moved to friday to meet a BATB rating fate, if we follow history.
    This debate really can’t go further until we see how TTP does on Monday.

  • soggybiscuit

    the characters are adults but act like children

  • TV Worth Blogging

    is there anyway that they would consider moving one of them and mayb even the Carrie Diaries to Summer, since their summer line up is practically non existant? or start and end their seasons early like they do for ANTM

  • TV Worth Blogging

    I agree if TTP does well on Mondays i wouldnt be surprised if they decided to use TTP as spackle or starting it early like they do ANTM

  • TV Worth Blogging

    I just dont see ZE getting picked up, Jane the virgin seems interesting but it need a name change and probably VD as lead in if it has any chance, I have no interest in Izombie but i know others do, so it would be in my schedule but i can see why its on yours

    there is no need for colony and red to both get picked up and to be realistic if 100 gets renewed red and colony are basically toast

    I agree that boots would be a good option for them. I think Hart of Dixie and ANTM are going to air on Fridays and start extremely early in the season and be gone long before mid season premieres

    Perfectionists and Painted girls on mondays or as a lead out of VD

  • TV Worth Blogging

    i dont think they are going to put two new shows on thursdays

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