FOX Predictions: 'Almost Human' Is Likely To Be Canceled

Categories: Cancel/Renew Fox Shows,Cancel/Renew Index

Written By

February 4th, 2014

Click this link for the latest FOX renewal / cancellation information:


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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 -February 2, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Raising Hope (F) :oops: 0.43
Enlisted (F) :oops: 0.46
The Mindy Project :| :| :| 0.77
Dads de facto canceled 0.84
Rake :oops: 0.89
Brooklyn Nine-Nine :) :) :) :) 0.95
Bones (F) renewed 0.95
New Girl :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.01
Almost Human :cry: :cry: 1.13
The Following :) :) :) :) 1.18
American Dad final season on Fox 1.24
Bob's Burgers renewed 1.26
Sleepy Hollow renewed 1.36
Family Guy :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.54
The Simpsons renewed 1.68
Glee renewed

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The Cancellation Bear moved his prediction for Almost Human down to "likely to be canceled". Its 2014 ratings haven't been bad, but the lack of additional episodes ordered, and Bones moving back to Monday at 8pm sends the signal that Almost Human is done. Those claiming it was always intended to be a 13 episode "limited series" like Sleepy Hollow are engaging in delusional revisionist history.

Rake's premiere rating put it right in the middle of Fox's "toss up" range. Its second episode dropped it well within the "certain to be canceled" range. Since it was in the headline last week, the bear thought he'd wait at least a week before putting Rake back in. Can't get stuck in a rut!

The bear is now leaning towards moving The Mindy Project to likely to be canceled, but he's got time to see how Brooklyn 9-9 does after New Girl tonight. There are plenty more weeks of Fox headlines to write and fit Mindy in.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2014, the "old" Fall predictions will stay in the table.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
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Notes:

:oops: certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
:cry: :cry: more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
:| :| :| toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
:) :) :) :) more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

 
  • Tommy M.

    Touch was also produced by FOX. I’m assuming that they wanted to keep Kiefer Sutherland around, and they felt that if it could do decently enough on Fridays they could burn through it there for syndication reasons. That plan failed horribly and it was cancelled. Interestingly the new 24 limited series was announced around the same time. Almost Human is produced by Bad Robot, so FOX has very little invested so far in that show being around long term. Bad Robot really doesn’t have much incentive to lower the licensing fee for it considering it’s syndication prospects are so far off. Bottom line is comparing the two shows is apples to oranges when you look at other factors.

  • 21149315

    This site is like the ultimate power trip.

  • Bad News Barrett

    Dads still has a chance to be renewed! I have hope!

  • langslow

    As of right now it is a rumor. It hasn’t hit the trades, which is where it would leak first. I’m not saying it isn’t true, just that it hasn’t been confirmed.

  • Sarah

    “Fox did a whole network promo after halftime but excluded, Enlisted,
    Raising Hope, Bob’s Burgers, American Dad and X-Factor in it.”

    They also excluded Bones.

  • Ultima

    That’s a myth; look at the numbers, there are rarely bumps, even for the show(s) airing after the Super Bowl.
    Take a look at last season…
    Up – HIMYM +0.3, TBBT +0.8, Men +0.2, CSI:NY +0.1
    Flat – 2BG, H50, NCIS:LA, *Elementary*, Blue Bloods
    Down – M&M -0.1, NCIS -0.1, Vegas -0.4, CM -0.3, CSI -0.2, PoI -0.1

  • Sarah

    I just hope people remember the move back on March 10th.

  • Pablo Troncoso

    I think FOX didn’t trust Almost Human could held up and that’s why they didn’t do the back 9 order. But now that the ratings have been stable and relatevely high for their standards I think they may renew it, even if it is to try it out on Fridays, since they moved Bones (their biggest Friday hit since X-Files) out of that night

  • Pablo Troncoso

    I think by the time FOX wanted to give the back order it was already too late; they didn’t think at first that Almost Human could remain stable, but now that it has I think FOX will be considering it for another season, even if it is just to move it to Fridays to make use of Bones’ timeslot. If they didn’t give it the backorder it may be because it was already too late in the season and instead of ordering just 2 or 3 more episodes, they decided to let it air all its episodes instead. Shold it still perform on the 1.8-2s range, it should be renewed. If it falls lower than that, it is dead for sure

  • Pablo Troncoso

    It will all depend on how it performs on the following weeks; FOX is in a bad shape in both scripted and unscripted departmen, I can see The Following surviving the season even with a 1.7 or a 1.6. Any lower than that and the show is done.

  • SweetiePie

    Nooooooooooo!!! Am i the only one who thinks this is the best drama on Fox, even better than sleepy hollow? The chemistry between the two main leads is impeccable. And seriously? what’s up with all these good shows getting crappy ratings. First Reign and now Almost Human? :(.

  • Helen

    They excluded many shows, including Bones. They always exclude Bones out of their promos even though it’s their longest running show AND one of the few that are doing well in its ninth season.

  • Ultima

    Bones is a veteran show that isn’t airing a new episode for five weeks; it would have been silly to waste a Super Bowl promo on it.

  • Helen

    Yeah, but it’s also a show that is moving back to Mondays. They aired a We are FOX promo with at least a small snippet of every show except Bones. I just find it kind of rude.

  • merrrrrranga

    the only clear data we have is that every limited series ever has been announced as so. your logic is ludicrous. saying something could be possible just by virtue of it not being announced as not so is ridiculous. by that logic, it could be something called and ‘unlimited series’ and will run everyday forever! they never announced the pope wasn’t a ferret. must be possible.

  • Potato

    They weren’t in Purgatory the whole time. They were in purgatory in a subplot for about ten percent of season six. Yeesh, no wonder everyone hates the ending if they still think that was it.

  • Potato

    Shows can receive no backorder without being planned as a “limited series.” In Almost Human’s case, had the show premiered strong right out of the gate, they could have ordered more episodes. Unfortunately, it started late and now it looks like the opportunity is past. But that doesn’t mean it was always supposed to be only 13.

  • Potato

    I think that Almost Human was likely to be cancelled… six weeks ago. SInce then, it’s risen up to respectable levels, people seem to be getting more interested in it. I’m not sure why it would be cancelled just because it’s now too late to order more, or they don’t have anywhere to put them.

  • CrimTV

    yeah I thought so. I assume you also mean they aren’t included in the official final rankings for 18-49 at the end of the season?

  • Ike1

    I disagree, but liked for “they never announced the pope wasn’t a ferret. must be possible.” It’s not really applicable here, but I enjoyed it.

    Back to the argument at hand, my argument would not be so much that it was likely intended as a 13-a-year series, but more that plenty of shows have premiered too late for a back nine, and have gone on to second seasons. True, most of them premiered later than November, but sci-fi shows often require a lot of post-production. If what Headless Horseman said is correct, production for these 13 episodes ended in December. That didn’t give Fox a significant window to order a back nine considering that they’d have to be WRITTEN first, before pre-production could begin.

    I’d like to qualify all this by adding: Don’t mistake this for an argument that the show will definitely be renewed. I just think the 1.13 index calculation should be taken on its face.

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