NBC Predictions: ‘Hannibal’ Starts As A “Toss Up” To Be Canceled Or Renewed
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 2, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Welcome To The Family*||canceled||0.52|
|The Michael J. Fox Show*||canceled||0.56|
|Sean Saves The World*||canceled||0.61|
|Parks & Recreation||0.87|
|Law & Order: SVU||1.28|
|Growing Up Fisher||1.38|
|About A Boy||1.59|
Hannibal was one of the cancellation bear’s big cancellation prediction misses last season (along with The Carrie Diaries). Given just a 30% chance of renewal, it survived the bear, even though its last several weeks of ratings were below 70% of NBC’s scripted show ratings average for those weeks. In hindsight, the conventional wisdom was that the international production made the license fee to NBC so cheap that those woeful ratings were tolerable.
This season’s Friday premiere ratings (1.1) were about 65% of NBC’s scripted average for the week, plenty close enough to have the once burned, twice shy, bear start it at a “toss up” to be renewed or canceled for another season.
Note to those paying very close attention: Although About A Boy and Growing Up Fisher have yet to air a new episode in their regular time slot, the bear’s decided to use the ratings for their regular timeslot repeat premieres in the Index until further notice.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|😥😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|😐😐😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.