Bubble Watch: Cancellation Still Predicted for 'Revolution;' 'Believe,' 'Crisis' On The Bubble + Fox's Ratings Woes

Categories: Bubble Watch

Written By

March 23rd, 2014

Revolution-5-550x365

Fox Continues the Slide

I’ve written before of the pattern the networks have been following (first Friday collapses, then Sunday, then 10pm, then the rest of the schedule) as their piece of the entertainment pie continues to shrink. Fox continues to slide down that curve, as their M-F scripted average this week fell below a 1.0(!), as nearly all those scripted shows hit or tied series lows. While Fox could (and should) argue that 40% of their M-F schedule is much better rated reality programming, coming in at twice that scripted average – American Idol, even at series lows, rated 50% higher than their highest rated scripted show this week–American Idol likely also costs far more to produce.

The far more disturbing takeaway is… it may not be Fox’s fault. Low 1s have gone from an outlier to a frequent occurrence this season. Beyond Fox, you have Parks & Rec, Community, Revolution, Parenthood, Hannibal, Trophy Wife, (this week’s lead-in-less) Mixology, Last Man Standing, and Intelligence (and the CBS Friday and Sunday dramas aren’t far off). Those low 1s may no longer be the sign of an instantly DOA show, but rather the shape of things to come for a merely borderline show without a strong lead-in. Whether show budgets can survive the ad rates that come from mere low 1s is a much more interesting question.

NBC Gets Back In the Early Renewal Game

Breaking from their recent history (or perhaps just wanting to point out their successes this season), this week NBC jumped into the bulk early renewal game, renewing Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., and Grimm, and making the renewals of Parks and Recreation and Celebrity Apprentice “official”.

One show that didn’t get an early renewal was Law & Order: SVU. Greying veterans are tough to predict, as costs eventually get out of hand. SVU has aggressively shed veteran cast members though over the last couple years, helping to keep it viable, and I still expect a renewal. One possibility that springs to mind is…

Revolution had an upcoming repeat and two new episodes replaced by Law & Order: SVU repeats. While I’ve been predicting Revolution’s cancellation this May since literally last season, this isn’t necessarily the death knell for the show – barring more preemptions, it could still air its remaining five episodes and end as planned on May 14th.

However, my ears always perk up when I hear about episode tryouts in Spring – more often than not, they are the sign of a network trying out a show in a new timeslot, or wanting comparison data to decide the fate of the existing show in the timeslot.

So, is NBC actually considering moving SVU to 8pm? CBS aired a Criminal Minds repeat at 8 earlier in the year with little backlash, and there seem to be few (if any) taboos about what can air in the hour anymore. If I were NBC, and actively trying to restock my roster, I’d try a schedule along the lines of:

M: The VoiceThe VoiceNew Drama

T: The VoiceNew Comedy – About a BoyNew Drama

W: Law & Order: SVUChicago Fire – Chicago P.D.

R: The Biggest LoserThe BlacklistNew Drama

F: DatelineGrimmInternational Co-Production

Believe and Crisis premiered to mid-1 ratings on Sunday. On one hand, both shows rated better than the just-renewed Chicago P.D. did this week; on the other hand, it is tough to imagine either show keeps all of that audience going forward. (I’m keeping both “On the Bubble” until I see how they hold up tonight.) Not coincidentally, I did mention Celebrity Apprentice getting a formal renewal this week; I expect NBC to give serious thought to converting their post-NFL Sundays to all-reality programming again.

The CW Continues a Solid Year

NBC isn’t the only network on an upswing (again, relative to the market as a whole), as The CW continues their solid season.

The Tomorrow People, in its new Monday timeslot, did not fare so well, recording a 0.4 rating. One on hand, that’s exactly what Hart Of Dixie averaged in the timeslot; on the other hand, that also tied The Tomorrow People‘s season low. Barring Total Pilot Failure, the best it can hope for is a spackle order, which may be difficult when its main competition…

The 100 premiered to a 0.9, improving on its lead-in. On one hand, that’s the same number The Tomorrow People premiered to in the timeslot; on the other hand, that’s nearly double what The Tomorrow People has been doing in the timeslot in 2014. Given The Tomorrow Project‘s drop over the season though, I’m going to wait at least a week to see how The 100 settles.

The Originals dropped to another series low this week. While fan chatter on the internet seems to revolve around departed cast members, the truth is likely much simpler: The Originals is now airing opposite The Voice every week, unlike in Fall.

Hart Of Dixie, returned to the same 0.4 it averaged in Fall, even in the Friday timeslot. That 0.4 rating is better than nearly every The Carrie Diaries airing, and in-line with the regular season ANTM ratings as well. I still expect a full 22 episode renewal.

The CW has been playing scheduling chicken against their oppositions’ singing competitions for so long, that it will be interesting to see how the network responds when those behemoths start exiting the field (The X-Factor is already gone, and American Idol looks increasingly dubious). Could The CW continue to be aggressive (and complete the Supernatural quinfecta) by scheduling something along the lines of:

M: Supernatural – New Drama (likely Supernatural: Bloodlines)

T: ReignThe Originals

W: Arrow  - New Drama (almost certainly The Flash)

R: The Vampire DiariesNew Drama

F: America’s Next Top ModelHart Of Dixie

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he's spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below

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Show Network Status
Back In The Game ABC Canceled
Lucky 7 ABC Canceled
How I Met Your Mother CBS Final Season
We Are Men CBS Canceled
Nikita CW Final Season Finished
American Dad Fox Moving to TBS
Raising Hope Fox Canceled
Ironside NBC Canceled
The Michael J. Fox Show NBC Canceled
Sean Saves The World NBC Canceled
Welcome To The Family NBC Canceled
Betrayal ABC Cancellation Predicted
Killer Women ABC Cancellation Predicted
Mind Games ABC Cancellation Predicted
Mixology ABC Cancellation Predicted
Nashville ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Neighbors ABC Cancellation Predicted
Once Upon A Time in Wonderland ABC Cancellation Predicted
Suburgatory ABC Cancellation Predicted
Super Fun Night ABC Cancellation Predicted
Trophy Wife ABC Cancellation Predicted
The Crazy Ones CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hostages CBS Cancellation Predicted
Intelligence CBS Cancellation Predicted
The Mentalist CBS Cancellation Predicted
Beauty & The Beast CW Cancellation Predicted
The Carrie Diaries CW Cancellation Predicted
Star-Crossed CW Cancellation Predicted
The Tomorrow People CW Cancellation Predicted
Almost Human Fox Cancellation Predicted
Dads Fox Cancellation Predicted
Enlisted Fox Cancellation Predicted
Rake Fox Cancellation Predicted
Community NBC Cancellation Predicted
Dracula NBC Cancellation Predicted
Parenthood NBC Cancellation Predicted
Revolution NBC Cancellation Predicted
The 100 CW On The Bubble
Believe NBC On The Bubble
Crisis NBC On The Bubble
Growing Up Fisher NBC On The Bubble
Hannibal NBC On The Bubble
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey's Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon A Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Resurrection ABC Renewal Predicted
Revenge ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Hart Of Dixie CW Renewal Predicted
Family Guy Fox Renewal Predicted
About a Boy NBC Renewal Predicted
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewal Predicted
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Blue Bloods CBS Renewed
Criminal Minds CBS Renewed
CSI CBS Renewed
Elementary CBS Renewed
The Good Wife CBS Renewed
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
The Millers CBS Renewed
Mom CBS Renewed
NCIS CBS Renewed
NCIS: LA CBS Renewed
Person Of Interest CBS Renewed
Two and a Half Men CBS Renewed
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
The Originals CW Renewed
Reign CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
The Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
Bob's Burgers Fox Renewed
Bones Fox Renewed
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Renewed
The Following Fox Renewed
Glee Fox Renewed
The Mindy Project Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Renewed
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed
Chicago Fire NBC Renewed
Chicago P.D. NBC Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Parks and Recreation NBC Renewed

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