ABC Predictions: Will ABC’s Drama Woes Save ‘Nashville’ From Being Canceled?

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Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – March 30, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Lucky 7* canceled 0.44
Mind Games* canceled 0.47
Killer Women* canceled 0.47
The Assets* canceled 0.48
Betrayal* ๐Ÿ˜ณ 0.49
Once Upon A Time In Wonderland canceled 0.52
The Neighbors (F) ๐Ÿ˜ณ 0.57
Trophy Wife ๐Ÿ˜ณ 0.57
Nashville ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜ 0.82
Last Man Standing (F) :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 0.83
Back in the Game* canceled 0.90
Mixology ๐Ÿ˜ฅ๐Ÿ˜ฅ 0.92
Super Fun Night* ๐Ÿ˜ณ 0.94
Suburgatory ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚ 0.96
Revenge :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 0.96
The Goldbergs ๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚ 0.96
Castle :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.08
The Middle :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.19
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.25
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.34
Grey’s Anatomy :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.55
Resurrection :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.76
Scandal :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 1.79
Modern Family :mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: 2.02

The cancellation bear’s friend who writes Bubble Watch moved Nashville directlyย from “cancellation predicted” to “renewal predicted” in a single week.ย Quite a turn around given no specific news. It’s true that ABC has once again had a string of spectacular drama failures this season, but Resurrection’s done relatively better this Spring than Nashvilleย (their only surviving freshman drama) did last Spring, and Agents of SHIELD is a certain renewal, so there’s at least some chance ABC may take a pass on two more low rated seasons of Nashville,ย since a renewal for season three practically mandates a renewal for season four.

For that reason, bear’s going to keep Nashville at a “toss up” as it has been most (all? the bear’s not going to bother to check) of the season. But he promises to go thumbs up or down no later than May 6.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him.ย You can follow the Cancellation Bearย on Twitter via @TheCancelBear.ย If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best placeย to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). ย 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


๐Ÿ˜ณ certain to be cancelled by May, 2014
๐Ÿ˜ฅ๐Ÿ˜ฅ more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014
๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ˜ toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014
๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚๐Ÿ™‚ more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014
:mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen::mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2014

Theย Renew/Cancel Indexย is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons?ย See all the Renew / Cancel Indexย predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

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