NBC Predictions: ‘Revolution’ Is Likely To Be Canceled, ‘Parenthood’ Is Likely To Be Renewed
Click this link for the latest NBC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewNbcShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from December 30, 2013 – April 20, 2014):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Welcome To The Family*||canceled||0.52|
|The Michael J. Fox Show*||canceled||0.56|
|Hannibal (F)||:| :| :|||0.61|
|Sean Saves The World*||canceled||0.61|
|Dracula* (F)||:| :| :|||0.66|
|Community*||:| :| :|||0.74|
|Parks & Recreation||renewed||0.82|
|Parenthood*||:) :) :) :)||0.86|
|Growing Up Fisher||:) :) :) :)||1.19|
|Law & Order: SVU||:) :) :) :)||1.21|
|About A Boy||:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||1.42|
With final predictions from the cancellation bear coming on May 6, he likes to get any likely changes into the headline beforehand to feed the ravenous maws of the search engines.
The bear doesn’t think NBC will renew both Parenthood and Revolution. It might not renew either, but it’s time for the bear to make a call. Even though 2014 Parenthood ratings have been slightly lower than those of Revolution, the fact that Parenthood is already at 90 episodes and another short season could be ordered to fill in somewhere on the schedule gives it the nod over Revolution, would require two more full (and likely low rated) seasons to reach four full seasons.
The bear has also moved his Law & Order: SVU prediction down from “certain renewal” to “likely to be renewed”. Dick Wolf has played chicken with NBC before and had a decently rated veteran/expensive show axed (Law & Order), there is at least some chance it happens again. As noted many times, shows in that category inhabit a particularly vexing blind spot of the bear’s.
For those that missed it, there was a report in an Irish newspaper more than three weeks ago that another season of Dracula had been ordered which caused the bear to upgrade his prediction to “toss up”, but since then there has been no confirmation the bear knows of by any other source, the bear increasingly views that report as mistaken.
The bear’s going to do his best to take two more “toss up” shows off his list next week. Stay tuned.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2014.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is now the best place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|:oops:||certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|:cry: :cry:||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|:| :| :|||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|:) :) :) :)||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:||certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.