Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information:
- ABC 2014-15 Predictions Wrap: 'Forever,' 'Cristela' Canceled; 'Agent Carter,' 'American Crime,' 'Galavant' Renewed
This is the final week of Renew / Cancel Index posts for the season, since the Fall 2014 broadcast TV schedules will be announced during the network upfront meetings next week, so as is our custom, we play Oddsmakers (hat tip, PTI) with our final renewal chance guesses of the season.
Our final guesses of RENEWAL chances:
|Super Fun Night||0%||5%|
|Last Man Standing||85%||90%|
|Agents of SHIELD||100%||100%|
|Once Upon a Time||100%||100%|
Modern Family, Revenge, Once Upon a Time, Resurrection, Castle, Scandal, Grey's Anatomy, Marvel's Agents of SHIELD & The Goldbergs have all been renewed.
Trophy Wife, The Neighbors and Mixology have been canceled.
As you'll see in all the Oddsmakers posts, the cancellation bear and Tom Shaw (Bubble Watch) are boringly similar in all but one show's prediction (it's an NBC show).
To those who claim "You never make an up or down call!", please take all of my guesses above 50% as thumbs up, and below 50% as thumbs down with their distance from 50% being my level of confidence.
Notes from Tom:
Will being an in-house production (Trophy Wife, The Neighbors, Mixology) trump better ratings (Suburgatory)?
While Last Man Standing will get a fourth season, will it be on ABC... or a Fox network?
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post's comments, is now the best place to do that. It's more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed over 40,000 times, the comments audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). 24,000 follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.
|certain to be cancelled by May, 2014|
|more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014|
|toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014|
|more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2014|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Predictions Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.