Final ABC renew/cancel predictions for ‘Castle,’ ‘Agent Carter’ and others

agent-carter-renew-cancel-final

The broadcast networks announce their 2016-17 schedules the week of May 16, which means it’s time for one last round of renew/cancel standings. Just about every show still waiting for news of its fate will hear by the end of this week.

Here are the Bear’s odds of renewal for each remaining show on ABC. The status column will be updated as decisions are made over the coming days.

ABC scripted average through May 8: 1.32

Show Renew/Cancel Index Renewal chances Status
Galavant 0.42 0% Canceled 5/12
Agent Carter 0.54 10% Canceled 5/12
The Famly 0.62 25% Canceled 5/12
American Crime 0.65 65% Renewed 5/12
Nasthville 0.72 70% Canceled 5/12
The Catch 0.76 35% Renewed 5/12
Castle 0.82 75% Canceled 5/12
Dr. Ken 0.83 85% Renewed 5/12
The Muppets 0.89 20% Canceled 5/12
The Real O’Neals 0.90 70% Renewed 5/12
Last Man Standing 0.90 90% Renewed 5/13

 

Already renewed: “Agents of SHIELD,” “Black-ish,” “Fresh Off the Boat,” “The Goldbergs,” “Grey’s Anatomy,” “How to Get Away with Murder,” “The Middle,” “Modern Family,” “Once Upon a Time,” “Quantico,” “Scandal”

Already canceled: “Blood & Oil,” “Of Kings and Prophets,” “Wicked City”

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

 

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