Renew/cancel predictions wrap for 2015-16: The Bear goes into hibernation
With another season coming to a close, the Bear is going into his annual summer hibernation. Before that, however, let’s look back at the season that was.
The Bear had another sterling season of predictions, though not quite as strong as last year. Of the 95 scripted broadcast shows that aired this season (excluding announced final seasons and those renewed before the start of the season), the Bear called renewals or cancellations of 75 correctly, with 10 incorrect and 10 shows rated as tossups at the time of their pickup or cancellation.
That’s a winning percentage of .842, down a little from last season’s .896 (as you probably know, the Bear had a new minder this year). Here’s a breakdown of each network’s scorecard.
ABC: 22 correct, 3 incorrect
Best call: Probably “American Crime.” Though it had a sub-1.0 same-day rating for the season, its critical cachet and the fact that it’s only a short-run series meant a third-season pickup. The Bear called it correctly.
Worst calls: Succumbing to the outside chatter that “Castle” and “Nashville” were in line for renewal when the numbers said they weren’t. A late-season change the Bear regrets.
CBS: 15 correct, 2 incorrect, 3 tossups
Best call: “The Odd Couple.” CBS didn’t seem to want it at first, but the Bear recognized early in the run that it would be hard for the network to ignore its steady ratings (especially since it’s owned by CBS).
Worst call: “Code Black’s” renewal and “Limitless'” cancellation were both a bit of a surprise. The Bear was on the wrong side of both.
FOX: 13 correct, 2 incorrect, 3 tossups
Best call: Recognizing that “Rosewood” would be a keeper given FOX’s outsize needs for programming in 2016-17. Its ratings weren’t stellar but they were solid enough throughout.
Worst call: Believing that FOX would try to salvage “Grandfathered,” the (slightly) better-rated of its two new Tuesday comedies.
NBC: 17 correct, 1 incorrect, 2 tossups
Best call: Keeping “The Carmichael Show” in the likely pickup column even though its ratings were modest. NBC wasn’t likely to cancel its best-reviewed comedy in a year when it axed several other half-hours.
Worst call: The only incorrect one was “The Mysteries of Laura,” and the Bear probably should’ve known better.
The CW: 8 correct, 2 incorrect, 2 tossups
Best call: Sticking with “iZombie” as a likely renewal even though traditional network math (32 episodes over two seasons) was not on its side.
Worst call: The Bear missed on “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” and “Containment.” After the former — the lowest-rated show on broadcast this season — was renewed, the Bear figured The CW was so pickup-happy that “Containment” and its somewhat better numbers would get the call as well.
Enjoy your summer. The Bear will return in September to begin assessing the new crop of potential meals.