bubbles1

Show Network Status
Manhattan Love Story ABC Canceled
Selfie ABC Canceled
The Mentalist CBS Final Season Complete
The Millers CBS Canceled
Two and a Half Men CBS Final Season Complete
Glee Fox Final Season Complete
Gracepoint Fox Canceled
Mulaney Fox Canceled
Red Band Society Fox Canceled
A to Z NBC Canceled
Allegiance NBC Canceled
Bad Judge NBC Canceled
Parenthood NBC Final Season Complete
Parks & Recreation NBC Final Season Complete
tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Agent Carter ABC Cancellation Predicted
American Crime ABC Cancellation Predicted
Cristela ABC Cancellation Predicted
Forever ABC Cancellation Predicted
Galavant ABC Cancellation Predicted
Resurrection ABC Cancellation Predicted
Revenge ABC Cancellation Predicted
Battle Creek CBS Cancellation Predicted
CSI CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Cancellation Predicted
The McCarthys CBS Cancellation Predicted
Stalker CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Cancellation Predicted
The Messengers CW Cancellation Predicted
Backstrom Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Following Fox Cancellation Predicted
Weird Loners Fox Cancellation Predicted
About a Boy NBC Cancellation Predicted
American Odyssey NBC Cancellation Predicted
Constantine NBC Cancellation Predicted
Marry Me NBC Cancellation Predicted
Mysteries of Laura NBC Cancellation Predicted
One Big Happy NBC Cancellation Predicted
State of Affairs NBC Cancellation Predicted
tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
black-ish ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Fresh Off the Boat ABC Renewal Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
How To Get Away With Murder ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon a Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Secrets & Lies ABC Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI: Cyber CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewal Predicted
The Odd Couple CBS Renewal Predicted
Person of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
iZombie CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Renewal Predicted
AD: The Bible Continues NBC Renewal Predicted
The Night Shift NBC Renewal Predicted
Undateable NBC Renewal Predicted
tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Madam Secretary CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS: New Orleans CBS Renewed
Mom CBS Renewed
Scorpion CBS Renewed
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Beauty & the Beast CW Renewed
The Flash CW Renewed
Jane The Virgin CW Renewed
The 100 CW Renewed
The Originals CW Renewed
Reign CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Renewed
Empire Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Gotham Fox Renewed
The Last Man on Earth Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Episodes Exist for Next Season
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed
Chicago Fire NBC Renewed
Chicago P.D. NBC Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewed

Bubble Watch: 2015 Edition

 

As nearly every media outlet has been posting a “Shows on the Bubble” gallery recently, I figured it was long past time for Bubble Watch to return. In too many cases though, the fate of a bubble show depends on the network’s overall schedule, so I want to start with a view of each network as a whole…

 

ABC

Pilots: 13 Dramas, 12 Comedies

Biggest question: What are the anchors for their comedy hours?

Second question: Will any bubble dramas survive?

 

With 12 comedy pilots, it is extremely likely ABC sticks with 4 comedy hours on the schedule. That’s good news for the existing shows that will start out those hours (The MiddleLast Man Standing). That’s less good news for the shows that would end those hours (Fresh Off the BoatCristela), that are now fighting with all those pilots to survive.

 

In a season where The Astronauts Wives Club and The Whispers never made it to the regular season schedule, ABC still felt the need to shoot twelve drama pilots. (It’s likely the proposed Mockingbird spin-off simply replaces Agent Carter as the Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. bridge.)  Recent history would suggest ABC picks up at least 5 of those dramas, which should be the final nail in the coffins of ForeverAmerican Crime, & Revenge.

 

CBS

Pilots: 8 Dramas (1 Series Order), 9 Comedies

Biggest question: Just what are the syndication deals for the CBS veterans?

 

The Good Wife. CSI. Hawaii Five-0. Blue Bloods. Frankly, ANY combination of renewals & cancellations for those four wouldn’t surprise me, as we have very little information on just what each of them actually costs CBS per episode, after their syndication and international sales deals are subtracted out.

 

Note that I said combination– someone will surely say “Why does CBS need to cancel any of them? Why can’t one or more just end up as next season’s The Mentalist?” To which I reply, look at how CSI ran out the string: with double episodes, during the late December holiday specials deadzone, and even once on a Tuesday. If that’s how CBS is treating a regular cost show, why on Earth would they spend money on a spackle show?


The CW

Pilots5 Dramas (3 WB, 2 CBS)

Biggest question: How do you fit new shows in with no room on the schedule?

With so many of their shows renewed, The CW has very little room to work with. If they launch just one new show Tuesdays@9 after The Flash, and move iZombie to, say, Thursdays at 9, then both Reign AND The 100 have to be moved off to Fridays/Spring/Summer (and Fridays already have ANTM for most of Fall). With that little space, I’d be surprised if The CW orders more than 2 of their pilots for next season, and launches more than one show in Fall.

Fox

Pilots: 6 Dramas (1 Series Order), 7 Comedies

Biggest question: Where and when does Empire return?

Second question: What does Fox do about Thursdays?

Empire wasn’t just the hit of the year – it arguably became the biggest premiere of the last half-decade over its run. It’s almost certain Fox will move the show to 8pm, and give a boost to some rookie afterward. The question is, how quickly can Fox get Empire back on the air (due to the musical numbers) – can they get a batch of episodes ready for Fall?

Meanwhile, Fox is now under a 1.0 average on Thursdays, the night with the highest ad rates of the week (due to movie and other weekend activity ads). Despite The Blacklist showing the perils of the idea, you really have to wonder if Fox won’t try to kill two birds with one stone and schedule Empire / Scream Queens for Thursday nights. That would actually be a positive for Bones’ chances – something has to air during the likely lengthy Winter hiatus of Empire… but that something could just be the audition rounds of American Idol, should it return.

NBC

Pilots: 9 Dramas (3 Series Orders), 10 Comedies (2 Series Orders), 1 Variety Series Order

Biggest question: With such a deluge of new shows, will any of them be any good?

For all of NBC’s troubles this year, they don’t have that many holes. Out of the 15 hours they need to fill before the NFL season ends, they already have 3 hours of The Voice, 5 renewed dramas, and at least 1 reality hour (Dateline). So for 6 hours (or less, if The Biggest Loser airs in Fall), NBC already has Heroes Reborn and the Neil Patrick Harris variety hour, whatever pilots they like, and Shades of BlueCoach, & Telenovela waiting in the wings. (If the demo ratings weren’t enough, that’s not good news for The Mysteries of Lauras of the world.)

While I expect NBC to not abandon Sundays between the NFL playoffs and Easter as completely as they did this season, that still seems like an overabundance of product. Frankly, that’s to be expected: between the length remaining on his contract and his network’s performance, NBC Chairman Robert Greenblatt clearly has the hottest seat out of the five broadcast networks, and execs in those situations usually order in quantity, hoping to find a hit by pure numbers alone. Dividing their focus between that many new prospects may well result in the result they’re trying to avoid though…

Next Week: Deeper analysis on all the bubble candidates.

Note: The chart only lists “Official” Renewals & Cancellations, not (truthful) mentions in promos, social media, and talk shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

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