Bubble-Watch

Show Network Status
Manhattan Love Story ABC Canceled
c2evenge ABC Canceled
Selfie ABC Canceled
The Mentalist CBS Final Season Complete
The Millers CBS Canceled
Two and a Half Men CBS Final Season Complete
Glee Fox Final Season Complete
Gracepoint Fox Canceled
Mulaney Fox Canceled
Red Band Society Fox Canceled
A to Z NBC Canceled
Allegiance NBC Canceled
Bad Judge NBC Canceled
Parenthood NBC Final Season Complete
Parks & Recreation NBC Final Season Complete
 tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Agent Carter ABC Cancellation Predicted
American Crime ABC Cancellation Predicted
Cristela ABC Cancellation Predicted
Forever ABC Cancellation Predicted
Galavant ABC Cancellation Predicted
Resurrection ABC Cancellation Predicted
Battle Creek CBS Cancellation Predicted
CSI CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hawaii Five-0 CBS Cancellation Predicted
The McCarthys CBS Cancellation Predicted
Stalker CBS Cancellation Predicted
Hart of Dixie CW Cancellation Predicted
The Messengers CW Cancellation Predicted
Backstrom Fox Cancellation Predicted
The Following Fox Cancellation Predicted
Weird Loners Fox Cancellation Predicted
About a Boy NBC Cancellation Predicted
American Odyssey NBC Cancellation Predicted
Constantine NBC Cancellation Predicted
Marry Me NBC Cancellation Predicted
Mysteries of Laura NBC Cancellation Predicted
One Big Happy NBC Cancellation Predicted
State of Affairs NBC Cancellation Predicted
 tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. ABC Renewal Predicted
black-ish ABC Renewal Predicted
Castle ABC Renewal Predicted
Fresh Off the Boat ABC Renewal Predicted
The Goldbergs ABC Renewal Predicted
Grey’s Anatomy ABC Renewal Predicted
How To Get Away With Murder ABC Renewal Predicted
Last Man Standing ABC Renewal Predicted
The Middle ABC Renewal Predicted
Modern Family ABC Renewal Predicted
Nashville ABC Renewal Predicted
Once Upon a Time ABC Renewal Predicted
Scandal ABC Renewal Predicted
Secrets & Lies ABC Renewal Predicted
Blue Bloods CBS Renewal Predicted
Criminal Minds CBS Renewal Predicted
CSI: Cyber CBS Renewal Predicted
Elementary CBS Renewal Predicted
The Good Wife CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS CBS Renewal Predicted
NCIS: Los Angeles CBS Renewal Predicted
The Odd Couple CBS Renewal Predicted
Person of Interest CBS Renewal Predicted
iZombie CW Renewal Predicted
Bones Fox Renewal Predicted
The Mindy Project Fox Renewal Predicted
AD: The Bible Continues NBC Renewal Predicted
The Night Shift NBC Renewal Predicted
Undateable NBC Renewal Predicted
 tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com
The Big Bang Theory CBS Renewed
Madam Secretary CBS Renewed
Mike & Molly CBS Renewed
NCIS: New Orleans CBS Renewed
Mom CBS Renewed
Scorpion CBS Renewed
2 Broke Girls CBS Renewed
Arrow CW Renewed
Beauty & the Beast CW Renewed
The Flash CW Renewed
Jane The Virgin CW Renewed
The 100 CW Renewed
The Originals CW Renewed
Reign CW Renewed
Supernatural CW Renewed
Vampire Diaries CW Renewed
Bob’s Burgers Fox Renewed
Brooklyn Nine-Nine Fox Renewed
Empire Fox Renewed
Family Guy Fox Renewed
Gotham Fox Renewed
The Last Man on Earth Fox Renewed
New Girl Fox Renewed
The Simpsons Fox Episodes Exist for Next Season
Sleepy Hollow Fox Renewed
The Blacklist NBC Renewed
Chicago Fire NBC Renewed
Chicago P.D. NBC Renewed
Grimm NBC Renewed
Law & Order: SVU NBC Renewed

Bubble Watch: Down To The Nitty-Gritty Edition

 

Important Note: The Network Upfronts are next week (May 11th – 14th), starting off with NBC likely announcing their schedule on May 10th, but the future of nearly all existing shows and pilots will be determined by late this week. Buckle up, this should be a wild ride.

As promised, here’s a look at every show whose fate is “unknown” headed into this week.

ABC

Castle

Pro: Nathan Fillion has signed a new contract. He and the show will be back.

Con: No such guarantee about any other actors in the show.

Verdict: Renewed.

Fresh Off The Boat

Pro: These ratings, opposite The VoiceThe Flash, & NCIS, with no national lead-in, should be more than enough to get a second shot.

Con: You never know if a network will fall in love with all its pilots and think they have a better shot.

Verdict: Renewed. But it may only be for 13 episodes to start with.

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

Pro: The question seems to be which show serves as its bridge, not if it even needs one in the first place.

Verdict: Renewed.

Agent Carter

Pro: The ratings weren’t terrible.

Con: The only question seems to be if ABC can get another spin-off ready in time to replace this.

Verdict: Canceled.

Forever

Con: There will be no miraculous resurrection here.

Verdict: Canceled.

Resurrection

Con: There will be no miraculous resurrection here.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Middle

Con: Fans are worried that an actor leaving the show suggests it is dead.

Pro: A veteran show losing actors (and their salary) is actually a good thing, as the show is keeping costs down (cough*McDreamy*cough) for another season.

Verdict: Renewed.

The Goldbergs, Modern Family, black-ish, Grey’s Anatomy, Scandal, How To Get Away With Murder, Once Upon a Time

Pro: Don’t be ridiculous.

Verdict: Renewed.

Nashville

Con: Connie Britton has joined American Crime Story.

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season. They are far less demanding on if every cast member returns, or for how many episodes that fourth season gets.

Verdict: Renewed.

American Crime

Con: The ratings aren’t renewable, regardless of the pedigree.

Verdict: Canceled.

Last Man Standing

Con: Tim Allen doesn’t work for cheap, and we don’t know how seriously ABC is considering going all-reality (Shark Tank-Beyond the Tank-20/20) on the night.

Pro: The ratings are good enough, and ABC has ordered enough pilots, that I think the Friday comedy block remains, and ABC & Fox bundle enough shows together again to get this renewed.

Verdict: Renewed.

Cristela

Con: Unless all the pilots turn out terribly, these ratings just aren’t renewable.

Verdict: Canceled.

Galavant

Con: If the scheduling didn’t convince you this was dead, the ratings should have.

Verdict: Canceled.

Secrets & Lies

Pro: The ratings warrant renewal, and the show was always designed to be open-ended, with Juliette Lewis investigating another case.

Con: Is anyone watching the show for Juliette Lewis? If people are only watching for Ryan Phillippe, and he doesn’t return, just what do the ratings settle at?

Verdict: Renewed. This seems like a case where the only way to find out is to give it a try.

Revenge

Verdict: Formally Canceled, if you missed it.

CBS

NCIS: Los Angeles

Pro: The show hasn’t even started down the CBS Sunday/Friday retirement tour.

Verdict: Renewed.

NCIS

Con: The ratings are no longer spectacular.

Pro: There’s no sign the costs have ballooned beyond the syndication money it brings in either.

Verdict: Renewed.

Person of Interest

Pro: The show hasn’t even started down the CBS Sunday/Friday retirement tour.

Verdict: Renewed.

Criminal Minds

Pro: It’s Criminal Minds. The show will be back.

Con: It’s Criminal Minds. No guarantee any specific cast member will be back, or (nowadays) that it keeps the timeslot.

Verdict: Renewed.

Stalker

Con: The ratings weren’t even average, and syndication would be years away.

Verdict: Canceled.

CSI: Cyber

Pro: The ratings started out fine (for 10pm), and renewing this keeps a relationship going with the producers even if they axe original recipe CSI.

Con: The ratings were not great, especially opposite the latest Dick Wolf crossover. If this moves to Sundays starting in Fall, it won’t survive to syndication, so why bother?

Verdict: Renewed. But it’ll be close.

The McCarthys

Con: The only reason this isn’t officially canceled is because no one even cares enough to put out the press release.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Odd Couple

Pro: The ratings have been acceptable.

Con: That’s merely acceptable, following The Big Bang Theory. The parallels to The Millers should scare everyone involved, especially since 5 out CBS’ 9 comedy pilots are CBS owned. This is unlikely to get more than a handful of The Big Bang Theory lead-ins for the rest of its life. 

Verdict: Renewed. But don’t be shocked if it is gone by the time January 2016 rolls around.

Elementary

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season!

Verdict: Renewed.

Hawaii Five-0

Con: Friday used to be the last stop on the CBS retirement tour, and Hawaii Five-0’s ratings average is less than Blue Bloods’. If CBS has to axe a show to make room for new pickups, this would seem to be it.

Pro: We don’t know the various CBS bubble shows’ syndication and international sales deals. (For a while, CSI: Miami was the most popular show in the world, because people liked the scenery. The same could easily apply here.) For that matter, we don’t even know if CBS “has to” cancel another show. If they axe CSI/Battle Creek and cancel or timeshare (with Madam SecretaryThe Good Wife, then CBS has two drama hours free for Fall. If they axe Stalker/CSI: Cyber, or bump the reality hours down to winter bridge filler, then CBS has three drama hours for Fall.

Verdict: Without knowing the syndication deals or the scheduling plans, this is a coin flip, and my flip comes up Canceled.

Blue Bloods

Pro: The ratings average is slightly higher than Hawaii Five-0’s.

Con: See Hawaii Five-0  – we just don’t know the syndication deals or scheduling plans.

Verdict: My coin flip comes up Renewed.

The Good Wife

Con: The 18-49 ratings just aren’t pretty.

Pro: Whatever financial reasoning led to the show’s renewal in previous years should still apply here.

Verdict: Renewed.

CSI

Con: Shows the network respects don’t get burned off in the holiday dead zone or on random nights.

Verdict: Canceled.

Battle Creek

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

The CW

iZombie

Pro: Fighting for the third best rated show on the network.

Con: On a network with no room, and too much of a WB skew to begin with.

Verdict: Renewed.

Hart of Dixie

Pro: The ratings weren’t terrible for Fridays, and there could be a financial boost to getting this closer to the preferred 88 episode number.

Con: There is just no room on the network for the show.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Messengers

Con: The ratings are terrible. The CW would just pick up one more CBS pilot if internal politics mattered.

Verdict: Canceled.

Fox

The Following

Con: The ratings are pretty questionable.

Pro: Is there a significant boost for four seasons (but far from 88 episodes) in syndication?

Verdict: Canceled.

The Mindy Project

Pro: The syndication gods demand a fourth season.

Con: But not necessarily for 22 episodes or on the same network.

Verdict: Renewed (somewhere).

Weird Loners

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Bones

Pro: The show has survived everywhere on the schedule, and syndicated backend.

Con: The ratings really are bad, and Deschanel & Boreanaz could easily price themselves out of a job.

Verdict: Renewed, probably for a 13 episode midseason farewell.

Backstrom

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Simpsons

Pro: Ratings are fine, and episodes remain for next season.

Verdict: Renewed.

Family Guy

Pro: Ratings are fine, and an entire production run (DACX) has yet to air.

Verdict: (Effectively Already) Renewed.

NBC

State of Affairs

Con: The ratings were terrible. For a show following The Voice, they were look-away ugly.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Night Shift

Con: NBC has already ordered two medical procedurals. Those sorts of ratings following The Voice won’t air in the regular season again.

Pro: The real question is if the show will come back for Summer. If the financials made sense last year, they probably make sense this year – especially if NBC wants to see if any of that Voice-inflated audience comes back.

Verdict: Renewed.

Marry Me

Con: The ratings were bad. For a show following The Voice, they were terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

About a Boy

Con: Shows that get their orders cut and get pulled off the schedule usually don’t get renewed.

Pro: Given NBC’s comedy situation, anything is possible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Undateable

Con: For a show following The Voice, the ratings weren’t great.

Pro: “Not great” is the cream of the NBC comedy crop.

Verdict: Renewed. But I don’t expect to see it in Fall.

One Big Happy

Con: The ratings are terrible for a block leading out of The Voice.

Verdict: Canceled.

The Mysteries of Laura

Pro: By NBC’s standards, the ratings were merely mediocre.

Con: NBC just has too many pilots and pickups to stick with this.

Verdict: Canceled.

Constantine

Con: The ratings are terrible, even by Friday standards.

Verdict: Canceled.

AD: The Bible Continues

Con: Last week proved the ratings drop wasn’t due to The AMC Awards.

Pro: The last time a network didn’t renew a single rookie was NBC’s 75/76 season. If you are going to renew a show just for PR reasons, I can’t think of a better option than a show with a very short order, that won’t air until the end of March, in a timeslot you were filling with American Ninja Warrior airings and the 17th repeat of Bridesmaids.

Verdict: Renewed.

American Odyssey

Con: The ratings are terrible.

Verdict: Canceled.

Note: The chart only lists “Official” Renewals & Cancellations, not (truthful) mentions in promos, social media, and talk shows.

Tom Shaw is a computer programmer from Milwaukee, WI. Bereft of Lost theories to argue about, he’s spent too much time attempting to figure out the TV industry.

Save yourself from hibernating bears! Direct your criticisms to @tvtomshaw instead!

Posted by:Steve Baron

VP/Digital for TV station ownership group; Dad to young twins, runner, skier & spend a lot of times in airplanes.

blog comments powered by Disqus