When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2012-13). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same, unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
I Hate My Teenage Daughter Likely To Be Canceled
I completely forgot to include the show in its debut week, but it worked out OK. Bill cautioned not to be quick to proclaim cancellation after only one week (and I wouldn’t have been). But now there’s two data points and it’s enough for me. The show dropped from an OK 2.8 adults 18-49 rating in its premiere to a not-so-ok 2.1 adults 18-49 rating. Not a good trajectory at all. I realize that surprised absolutely nobody.
Terra Nova Still On The Bubble
Several have written with some variant of “C’mon, you know Terra Nova is going to be canceled. Why won’t you list it as at least ‘likely to be canceled?’
No, I don’t know Terra Nova is going to be canceled. Its ratings clearly aren’t great or even good really, but nor are they bad enough to have a clear view. Cancellation won’t surprise me and neither will renewal. Some will protest “yes, but not only are its ratings not great, it’s very, very expensive!” While I’ve read of the shows production woes and comments on costs I don’t know how much things really cost. If the pilot really cost from $10 million to $20 million alone (a wide range) and each episode costs $4 million then I agree renewal looks bleak.
If the reports of costs are true and if it were my money, I wouldn’t renew it. But it’s not my money and I think it’s quite possible (perhaps even likely) that crazy discussions like “Well, we could cancel it and cut our losses, or we could amortize the expensive-as-hell-pilot over another season!” will be had.
Perhaps the next two weeks (the final two weeks of Terra Nova’s season) will tell the tale.
Hart of Dixie Still On The Bubble
Bill upgraded Hart of Dixie to likely renewal which is understandable since it broke away from the pack of middling shows. But to paraphrase Billy Preston, 90% of nothing is still nothing. Do I like Hart of Dixie’s renewal prospects better than Nikita’s and Gossip Girl’s? Absolutely. But just not enough more to bump it up to “likely” yet.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|How To Be a Gentleman||CBS||Canceled|
|The Playboy Club||NBC||Canceled|
|A Gifted Man||CBS||Certain Cancellation|
|Harry’s Law||NBC||Certain Cancellation|
|Body of Proof||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|I Hate My Teenage Daughter||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Private Practice||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: Miami||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|CSI||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Person of Interest||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Rules of Engagement||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Unforgettable||CBS||On The Bubble|
|Bones||Fox||On The Bubble|
|House||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Raising Hope||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Terra Nova||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Gossip Girl||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Ringer||CW||On The Bubble|
|Community||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Up All Night||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Whitney||NBC||Waiting for New Time Slot Ratings|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Good Wife||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Secret Circle||CW||Likely Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Office||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Renewed|
|Desperate Housewives||ABC||Final Season|