It’s a New Year and although it has been a while since the last Bubble Watch, not much has changed because for most of the absence there were no original episodes of scripted shows.
There are a few minor changes though — the changes really are pretty minor, if you have a strong reaction to them consider yourself much more emotionally invested than I am!
Nashville was upgraded from on the bubble to likely renewal. I also upgraded Whitney from likely cancellation to on the bubble status. It could move right back down after its next episode. We’ll see. Two and a Half Men was upgraded from likely to certain renewal. From a ratings perspective that’s been true all season, really. I held “Men” back a little bit because of the older show/expense issues. But it’s pretty clear that both sides (Warner Bros and CBS) will be motivated to bring it back so it’s hard to imagine any situation that doesn’t result in renewal.
1600 Penn and Deception are on the bubble only because I’m waiting for more data. Also, since the last Bubble Watch How I Met Your Mother and Bones have been renewed.
Through most of the fall, Revenge was “certain to be renewed” while Scandal was “likely to be renewed.” I’ve flipped that around to kick off the year. Which show is “better” in terms of quality is no concern of Bubble Watch (I personally haven’t watched either, and I don’t have anything against either show), the very recent ratings trend favors Scandal. But if Scandal vs. Revenge is some sort of sporting contest in your mind, that is for your own entertainment purposes only. There is no zero sum game between Revenge and Scandal. Both could be renewed and based on current ratings, both will be renewed. At least currently, which show you like more is as inconsequential as which show has the better ratings.
Edit: This post was drafted prior to the release of CBS’s summer schedule. I have to give props to Bill who upon perusing CBS’s midseason schedule a while back concluded CSI: NY was more likely to be canceled than renewed. I’d kept it on the bubble, but upon seeing the summer schedule have to conclude Bill had it right a couple of months ago.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Canceled|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|CSI: NY||CBS||Likely Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Cleveland Show, The||Fox||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|1600 Penn||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Deception||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|