Not many changes from last week. I did finally downgrade Don’t Trust the B—- to certain cancellation.My gut says that the show isn’t as certain of a cancellation as my eyes would have me believe looking at the ratings. My secret’s out: I trust my eyes more than my gut.
Whitney’s ratings are horrible, but with only one data point last week I didn’t want to jump to judgement last week and with this week’s even more horribly rated episode (haven’t seen the finals yet though) airing on Thanksgiving Eve, it should probably be tossed out in terms of scoring Whitney’s prospects. So I’ve left it on the bubble for another week. hat said: the ratings, they aren’t any good and wacky Olympic style scoring won’t be a factor soon and if you want to go ahead and translate the status to “likely cancellation” immediately, nobody is going to call you a dope.
Why are some shows with bad to kinda eh ratings listed as likely or certain renewals despite the bad and kind of eh ratings? It’s the syndication gods. The theory goes that shows that will end the 2012-13 TV season only one more season away from having ~88 episodes considered to be the minimum threshold for stripped (Mon-Fri) syndication will be shepherded along to syndication pretty much no matter how bad the ratings are.
So why is Nikita on the bubble then? It will end this season only one season shy of the episodes necessary for stripped syndication. It’s not that I’m trying to rattle Nikita’s fans’ cages — it’s just the ratings are so bad I find that I’m not a devout believer in the syndication gods! But I believe enough that Nikita won’t go any lower than “on the bubble” even if it starts pulling 0.0 adults 18-49 ratings.
Speaking of “on the bubble” the cable renew/cancel status list is on the bubble of renewal and cancellation by me. A “Save That List” petition on Facebook probably won’t make a difference. But it couldn’t hurt!
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Canceled|
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Certain Cancellation|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Malibu Country||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Nashville||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Whitney||NBC||On The Bubble|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|