Here we are, more than a third of the way into November and only two shows have been cancelled so far. I’ve gotten a few questions about why that is.
Meet This Year: Pretty Much The Same As Last Year and the Year Before!
It’s true that the past two seasons by this time of year twice as many shows had been canceled. But that’s one of those stats that sounds good in a press release (50% Fewer Cancellations!) but doesn’t mean much of anything because the absolute numbers are so small. The past two seasons four shows had already been canceled by now. That only two are cancelled so far this season isn’t really a deviation from the norm. I’ve seen some suggest that it has been aided by NBC airing The Voice instead of scripted shows, but, nope, that’s not it. Last year at this time were four hours of The Sing Off and The Biggest Loser on NBC Mondays and Tuesdays.
Me, I’d just blame it on normal variances, but if you absolutely have to have a culprit you can try “the debates and election” which caused slightly fewer airings of normal programming this season and/or weak bench strength at the networks.
Is Beauty and the Beast This Year’s The Secret Circle?
While it’s too soon for me to declare that’s the case, on the heels of Beauty and the Beast getting a full-season pickup it’s pretty clear it’s not too soon for fans of The Secret Circle to be disgruntled!
I’m generally not a retentionista when it comes to predicting renewals. But in the case of the CW I made an exception to that rule last year because CW had one decent ratings performer (The Vampire Diaries) and a bunch of (for the CW) middling-to-bad ratings performers. The Secret Circle was a middling performer for the CW, despite having the best lead-in it could possibly have and because of the overall bleakness of the CW ratings landscape, I figured that was a case where retention would (and it seems, did) actually matter.
In one sense things are not so bleak for the CW this season. They now have two decent performers (Arrow and The Vampire Diaries) and by moving Supernatural to Wednesdays to pair with Arrow, one pretty good performer.
If things continue on the same path, I’d guess that indeed, Beauty and the Beast is this year’s The Secret Circle. Surely CW would like to find something to pair with The Vampire Diaries that performs about as well as Supernatural did out of Arrow last week where Supernatural held 77% of Arrow’s 1.3 adults 18-49 rating.
Beauty and the Beast held less than 50% of The Vampire Diaries 1.5 adults 18-49 rating on Thursday.
But Beauty and the Beast has the gift of time. It seems unlikely it will improve, but it at least has that opportunity. It could also improve its lot simply by standing still while the rest of the CW crumbles around it.
My guess is that Beauty and the Beast is well on its way to becoming this season’s The Secret Circle, but it will likely stay on the bubble a while.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Last Resort||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Certain Cancellation|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Too Soon|
|Malibu Country||ABC||Too Soon|
|Nashville||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|