The feedback I’ve received has overwhelmingly been “please give us back the old Bubble Watch table!” Even though there wasn’t any difference in readership for the past month or so while I’ve tried variations of Bubble Watch that weren’t exactly “Bubble Watch,” the end of daylight saving time and the return to standard time seemed like a good time to give the vocal minority who really cares about the table format the table format they asked for. Due to rust and using last year’s final table as a starting point their may be a mistake or five, though I think I did at least get all of last year’s canceled shows out of this year’s table… Though there’s bold text above the table, I’ll restate it here: shows that haven’t aired an episode yet are not in the table, and like the Renew/Cancel Index this is only scripted shows.
Other than the all-in-one table format, there aren’t currently many differences between Bubble Watch and the Renew/Cancel Index — there usually aren’t, so that’s not a big surprise. The biggest difference — and I don’t consider it very big — is Nikita and I wrote about that last week, so if you’re interested in why the Renew/Cancel Index has it at likely renewal and I have it on the bubble you can click the link to last week’s post. That Nikita was up in the preliminary numbers 100% over last week (from a 0.2 adults 18-49 rating to a 0.4) is perhaps a good sign…but, I’m waiting to see the final numbers on Monday before considering whether that sways me any.
I also have knocked Don’t Trust the B— in Apt 23 down to likely cancellation. The R/C had it as a toss-up last week, but I had the benefit of an additional ratings data point. Sure, maybe I should’ve tossed that data point out since much of New York was without power due to the superstorm…but I didn’t. My thinking is that ABC will cancel at least one of its comedies, and it’s currently the most likely candidate by a fairly wide margin.
When it comes to bubble status, like the Renew/Cancel Index we’re focusing on the likelihood that a show will be renewed **for next season** (2013-14). Certain shows are toss-ups where based on the ratings, the renewal decisions could go either way and not be surprising.
Here, “canceled” is used interchangeably with “won’t be renewed for next season” and is not meant to imply a show will be yanked off the schedule in the current season though obviously the two outcomes are not mutually exclusive. The semantics police and lawyers should feel free to break out the handcuffs and plead their cases in the comments.
This Isn’t The Renew/Cancel Index
Though the basic methodology is the same (intra-network relative ranking of shows by adults 18-49 ),unlike the Renew/Cancel Index which predicts what would happen if the season ended now, Bubble Watch prognosticates about what will happen by May. The two are still usually closely aligned, and almost certainly very closely aligned towards the end of the season.
Note: only scripted shows that have aired at least one episode this season are in the table below.
|Made in Jersey||CBS||Canceled|
|666 Park Avenue||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Last Resort||ABC||Certain Cancellation|
|Emily Owens, M.D.||CW||Certain Cancellation|
|The Mob Doctor||Fox||Certain Cancellation|
|Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23||ABC||Likely Cancellation|
|Ben and Kate||Fox||Likely Cancellation|
|Guys with Kids||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Up All Night||NBC||Likely Cancellation|
|Happy Endings||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Last Man Standing||ABC||Too Soon|
|Malibu Country||ABC||Too Soon|
|Nashville||ABC||On The Bubble|
|Scandal||ABC||On The Bubble|
|CSI: NY||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Good Wife||CBS||On The Bubble|
|The Mentalist||CBS||On The Bubble|
|90210||CW||On The Bubble|
|Beauty and the Beast||CW||On The Bubble|
|Hart of Dixie||CW||On The Bubble|
|Nikita||CW||On The Bubble|
|The Mindy Project||Fox||On The Bubble|
|Chicago Fire||NBC||On The Bubble|
|Neighbors, The||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|The Middle||ABC||Likely Renewal|
|Hawaii Five-0||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|How I Met Your Mother||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|Two and a Half Men||CBS||Likely Renewal|
|The Cleveland Show||Fox||Likely Renewal|
|Law & Order: SVU||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Parks & Recreation||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|The New Normal||NBC||Likely Renewal|
|Grey’s Anatomy||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Modern Family||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|Once Upon a Time||ABC||Certain Renewal|
|2 Broke Girls||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Blue Bloods||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Criminal Minds||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Mike & Molly||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|NCIS: Los Angeles||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|Person of Interest||CBS||Certain Renewal|
|The Vampire Diaries||CW||Certain Renewal|
|New Girl||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Raising Hope||Fox||Certain Renewal|
|Go On||NBC||Certain Renewal|
|The Big Bang Theory||CBS||Renewed|
|Private Practice||ABC||Canceled/Final Season|
|Gossip Girl||CW||Final Season|
|30 Rock||NBC||Final Season|
|The Office||NBC||Final Season|