Masked Scheduler's Ratings Smackdown

Still cleaning out the Masked Mail from the holidays, and here are two more. First up, a question about FOX's future:
"I was wondering what you thought of these comments in Variety from Stacey Schulman: 'Not having a relationship with a production company could actually be freeing, We've looked at this model for the last 20 years and thought it would be beneficial for networks to own the back end of content that came out of their own libraries. But sometimes it leads to shows being given chances for longer than they should be given chances in time periods they shouldn't be given. FOX may actually program better for themselves."
Here's a simple formula:
(ratings x cpm) – license fee = profit/loss of a show
That's how to evaluate a show. Now this has all gotten more complicated as retransmission money and back-end revenues can shift a show from loss to profit -- but you have to own the back end. The partnership of a network with a sibling studio can generally produce profits for the larger corporation.
FBC, when this Disney sale goes through, will have to survive without a sibling studio. That means they will have to make deals with suppliers for a piece of the back end of a show. What that will often require are time period commitments or a guarantee of more than one season. In other words, shows from outside studios will "be given chances longer than they should be given chances in time periods they shouldn’t be given."
The circle of life.
***
Here’s another, about shorter seasons for broadcast shows.
"Lately, I've noticed that NBC refuses to pick up any of its comedies (with the exception being Superstore) for a full 22-episode season. Why is that?"
I can only speculate, but I believe that this is a combination of a network trying to act like cable channels (what I call "cable envy") and the insistence among certain showrunners that they cannot make more than 8-13 good episodes of a show in a given season.
NBC and FOX seem to be much more in the camp of the shorter episode seasons. It could be that they are totally single-cam (other than "Will & Grace" on NBC) and try to be a bit more theatrical, whereas CBS' comedies are largely multi-cam and ABC's mostly play like multi-cam.
***
Time to load up the Masked Mailbox again, so send questions to masked.scheduler@gmail.com or @maskedscheduler on Twitter.

Broadcast primetime live + same-day ratings for Monday, Jan. 8, 2018

The numbers for Monday:

Time Show Adults 18-49 rating/share
Viewers (millions)
8 p.m. The Big Bang Theory (CBS) – R 1.4/5 7.69
The Bachelor (ABC) (8-10 p.m.) 1.4/5 5.51
The Wall (NBC) 1.0/4 5.04
Lucifer (FOX) – R 0.6/2 2.06
Supergirl (The CW) – R 0.3/1 1.05
8:30 p.m. Kevin Can Wait (CBS) – R 1.1/4 5.49
9 p.m. Young Sheldon (CBS) – R 1.1/4 5.91
Better Late Than Never (NBC) 0.8/3 4.09
The Gifted (FOX) – R 0.4/1 1.43
Arrow (The CW) – R 0.2/1 0.83
9:30 p.m. Superior Donuts (CBS) – R 0.8/3 4.44
10 p.m. The Good Doctor (ABC) 1.6/6 8.22
The Brave (NBC) 0.6/2 2.96
SWAT (CBS) – R 0.6/2 3.55

 

The glass-half-empty reading for “The Good Doctor’s” ratings Monday is that the show tied its season low among adults 18-49 with a 1.6 rating.

The glass-half-full reading is that “The Good Doctor” was even with its last episode of 2017 despite airing opposite a highly rated College Football Playoff title game. Either way, “TGD” led the night on broadcast in both adults 18-49 and viewers (8.22 million).

“The Bachelor” was off slightly from its premiere last week, falling a tenth of a point to 1.4. NBC was the only other network airing originals: “The Wall” (1.0, +0.2) and “Better Late Than Never” (0.8, +0.1) each improved vs. last week, but “The Brave” returned to a season-low 0.6.

The CFP championship delivered a 16.7 household rating in metered markets for a three-channel simulcast. The main telecast on ESPN drew a 16.0, up 8 percent from last year and the top show of the night on all of TV by far. Final ratings will be out later in the day.

Network averages:

ABC CBS NBC FOX CW
Adults 18-49 rating/share 1.5/5 1.0/4 0.8/3 0.5/2 0.2/1
Total Viewers (millions) 6.41 5.10 4.03 1.74 0.94

 

Late-night metered market ratings (adults 18-49, households):

11:35 p.m.

“Jimmy Kimmel Live”: 0.6/3, 2.0/5

“The Late Show with Stephen Colbert”: 0.5/2, 2.8/7

“The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon”: 0.4/2, 1.5/3

12:35 a.m.

“Nightline”: 0.4/3, 1.4/5

“Late Night with Seth Meyers” – R: 0.3/2, 0.9/3

“The Late Late Show with James Corden”: 0.2/2, 1.2/4

Definitions:

Rating: Estimated percentage of the universe of TV households (or other specified group) tuned to a program in the average minute. Ratings are expressed as a percent.
Fast Affiliate Ratings: These first national ratings are available at approximately 11 a.m. ET the day after telecast. The figures may include stations that did not air the entire network feed, as well as local news breaks or cutaways for local coverage or other programming. Fast Affiliate ratings are not as useful for live programs and are likely to differ significantly from the final results, because the data reflect normal broadcast feed patterns. 
Share (of Audience): 
The percent of households (or persons) using television who are tuned to a specific program, station or network in a specific area at a specific time. 
Time Shifted Viewing:
 Program ratings for national sources are produced in three streams of data – Live, Live +Same-Day and Live +7 Day. Time-shifted figures account for incremental viewing that takes place with DVRs. Live+SD includes viewing during the same broadcast day as the original telecast, with a cut-off of 3 a.m. local time when meters transmit daily viewing to Nielsen for processing. Live +7 ratings include  viewing that takes place during the 7 days following a telecast.

Source: The Nielsen Company.

Posted by:Rick Porter

Rick Porter has been covering TV since the days when networks sent screeners on VHS, one of which was a teaser for the first season of "American Idol." He's left-handed, makes a very solid grilled cheese and has been editor of TV by the Numbers since October 2015. He lives in Austin.

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