The CW has announced its 2009-10 schedule. Last season the big movers in the CW schedule were the loss (or abandonment, take your pick) of Friday Night Smackdown! and the decision to sublet their Sunday night line up to MRC Capital for their programming. Oh yeah, three new shows were introduced by the CW themselves, but they had less influence on the overall numbers for the network than the other two decisions.
Here we are a year later and the Sunday night deal with MRC Capital blew up, and now CW has abandoned programming Sunday nights altogether. Except for Smallville and Supernatural, which stubbornly remain the CW’s top draws in the adults 18-49 demos (we don’t get season to date averages for women 18-34, which is the CW target avowed target), are the only shows left that don’t fit the women 18-34 target demo focus.
Compared to 2008 The CW has fewer new shows and new show time, although the same number (3 shows, 3 hours) programmed by the CW, and one fewer unscripted show. Note that even with only 5 days of programming, the CW has as many hours of new scripted programming in the fall as NBC.
Here is a look at CW’s Fall 2009 Schedule vs. its Fall 2008 Schedule by the Numbers.
2009 (3 shows, 3 hours): Melrose Place (1 hour), The Beautiful Life (1 hour), The Vampire Diaries (1 hour)
2008 (6 shows, 6 hours): 90210 (1 hour), Privileged (1 hour), Stylista (1 hour), In Harm’s Way (MRC) (1 hour), Valentine (MRC) (1 hour), Easy Money (1 hour)
2009 (3 hours): America’s Next Top Model + Encore (2 hours), Stylista (1 hour)
2008 (2 hours): America’s Next Top Model + Encore (2 hours)
My Ratings Forecast
With the other networks, most of my forecasts are just finger in the wind guessing. I know nothing about the new pilots, and even if I did, I wouldn’t pretend to be able to judge their chances. However, next season for the CW I can guarantee two things about their ratings:
- Getting rid of Sunday night programming will increase CW’s weekly ratings averages across the board in all demos. However that’s like saying if we don’t have the pitcher bat, our team batting average will go up. Obvious, but hardly an achievement.
- In contrast to this season, when weeklyseasonal averages were almost never mentioned by CW PR, next season they will be heavily emphasized. This season CW PR was all night by night or show by show comparisons, next year I will wager whatever you’ll take that it will all be about week vs. week (or season vs. season) average comparisons.
On a night by night basis, just like with all the other networks, its all guesswork for me, but obviously Monday looks to be even, Tuesday and Wednesday could go either way, Thursday looks to be down, and Friday looks to be up. Overall, discounting Sunday, my guess is that the CW is about even with this season minus the general downward drift in all broadcast TV audiences.
|8-9p||Gossip Girl||Gossip Girl|
|9-10p||One Tree Hill||One Tree Hill|
|8-9p||America’s Next Top Model||America’s Next Top Model|
|9-10p||Stylista||The Beautiful Life|
|8-9p||Smallville||The Vampire Diaries|
|8-8:30p||Everybody Hates Chris||Smallville (8-9p)|
|9-10p||America’s Next Top Model (encore)||America’s Next Top Model (encore)|
|7-8p||In Harm’s Way|
Shows in BOLD are/were new, shows in italics are unscripted, 2008 shows in strikethrough did not return.
The show scheduled to premiere in mid-season or later is: Parental Discretion Advised.
It’s not worth the time to compare mid-season schedules. Changes are almost certain between now and January.