NBC has announced its 2009-10 schedule. Of course, the addition of The Jay Leno Show every weekday at 10pm has dramatically changed its schedule vs. Fall 2008.
Note that NBC went 0-5 with its new Fall 2008 shows. Not a single new Fall 2008 show returns for 2009.
Compared to 2008 NBC has the same number of new shows (if you consider Leno as a single show), far more new show time, and far more unscripted show time. Although all the numbers are driven by Leno.
NBC is only scheduling 8 hours of non-repeat scripted programming a week in the Fall. That could be the same amount that the CW schedules in its 5 nights a week.
Here is a look at its Fall 2009 Schedule vs. its Fall 2008 Schedule by the Numbers.
2009 (5 shows, 7.5 hours): The Jay Leno Show (5 hours), Trauma (1 hour), Parenthood (1 hour), Community (1/2 hour)
2008 (4 shows, 4 hours): My Own Worst Enemy (1 hour), Kath & Kim (1 hour), Knight Rider (1 hour), Crusoe (1 hour)
2009 (12 hours): The Jay Leno Show (5 hours), Biggest Loser (2 hours), Dateline NBC (1 hour), Football Night in America (1 hour), Sunday Night Football (3 hours)
2008 (9 hours): Biggest Loser (2 hours), America’s Toughest Jobs (1 hour), Deal or No Deal (1 hours), Dateline NBC (1 hour), Football Night in America (1 hour), Sunday Night Football (3 hours)
My Ratings Forecast
The dominant factor in any NBC comparison is how well The Jay Leno Show does. Last Fall the Tonight Show did a 1.4 demo rating at 11:30pm. For prognostication’s sake, I’ll assume that Leno at 10pm can do a 2.0. Even comparing against new episodes from last fall, Leno’s likely to do better on Wednesdays and Fridays. He’ll do relatively better once repeat time for scripted shows starts.
With that in mind, NBC’s Monday looks to be about even. Tuesday a negative. Wednesday looks to be a net positive, potentially big. Thursday’s a net negative, potentially big. Friday a net positive. Saturday and Sunday even. Overall, any move up or down is all going to be due to Leno’s success level.
|Day / Time||2008||2009|
|10-11p||My Own Worst Enemy||The Jay Leno Show|
|8-10p||The Biggest Loser||The Biggest Loser|
|10-11p||Law & Order:SVU||The Jay Leno Show|
|9-10p||Deal or No Deal||Law & Order: SVU|
|10-11p||Lipstick Jungle||The Jay Leno Show|
|8-8:30p||My Name Is Earl||SNL Weekend Update Thursday|
|8:30-9p||Kath & Kim||Parks & Recreation|
|9-9:30p||The Office||The Office|
|9:30-10p||30 Rock||Community/30 Rock|
|10-11p||ER||The Jay Leno Show|
|8-9p||Crusoe||Law & Order|
|9-10p||America’s Toughest Jobs||Southland|
|10-11p||Life||The Jay Leno Show|
|8-9p||Dateline NBC||Dateline NBC|
|9-10p||Knight Rider (Encores)||Trauma (Encores)|
|10-11p||Law & Order:SVU (Encores)||Law & Order:SVU (Encores)|
|7-8pm||Football Night in America||Football Night in America|
|8-11p||Sunday Night Football||Sunday Night Football|
Shows in BOLD are/were new, shows in italics are unscripted, 2008 shows in strikethrough did not return.
The shows scheduled to premiere in mid-season or later are: Chuck, Day One, 100 Questions, Mercy, The Marriage Ref and Celebrity Apprentice.
It’s not worth the time to compare mid-season schedules. Changes are almost certain between now and January.