Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through April 18, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Miami Medical (F)||0.48|
|Numb3rs (F), (P)||0.56|
|Three Rivers (P)||.55*|
|Accidentally On Purpose (Wed) (P)||0.60|
|Medium (F), (P)||0.59|
|New Adventures of Old Christine (S)||0.62|
|Ghost Whisperer (F), (S)||0.62|
|Cold Case (P)||0.71|
|The Good Wife (P)||0.83|
|How I Met Your Mother (S)||1.05|
|Rules Of Engagement||1.05|
|Criminal Minds (P)||1.10|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (P)||1.08|
|CSI: Miami (P)||1.12|
|Two And A Half Men||1.53|
|Big Bang Theory||1.61|
As sure as I am that ABC’s renewal decisions are all wrapped up, I am unsure about quite a few of CBS’.
Of the four shows in orange above, this is how I see them today in order of most likely to be canceled:
- Accidentally On Purpose (likely to be this year’s Worst Week, not redeeming itself on Wednesdays)
- New Adventures of Old Christine (has the episodes for syndication, retirement likely)
- Gary Unmarried (still a fighting chance, most likely comedy to return)
- Medium (likely, but not certain, to return)
While the numbers for Numb3rs have placed it in danger of cancellation from the beginning of the season, all the press surrounding its season finale leads me to believe that CBS will be canceling the show.
Cold Case and Miami Medical are both certain to be canceled.
* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.
I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.
This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS’s case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.