Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through October 4, 2009):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Hank 0.68
Castle (p) 0.73
the forgotten 0.74
The Middle 0.84
Eastwick 0.85
Brothers & Sisters (S) 1.00
FlashForward 1.24
Modern Family 1.29
Cougar Town 1.32
Private Practice 1.48
Desperate Housewives 1.56
Grey’s Anatomy 2.06

Poor Kelsey Grammer, ever since he stopped being Frasier Crane he can’t catch a break. His latest show, Hank, premiered as the most likely ABC show to be canceled prior to the end of the 2009-2010 season. Not to worry, we’ll always have Cheers!

Castle looks a little better this week, but that’s primarily because other ABC shows did worse, it’s still in significant danger of being canceled by the end of the season. the forgotten’s second airing ratings fell sharply and now it’s likely in even more danger than Castle of being canceled. And a lot can happen between now and May, but fans of Eastwick and The Middle might not want to make any multi-year viewing plans either. Brothers & Sisters improvement in its second airing has boosted it into the safe zone.

In response to some comments about color blindness and problems with the colors in the list, the shows in red (the greatest danger) are now also bolded. Does that help?

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Friday’s have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.

Factors that could cause a show to be cancelled with an above average index:

  • (p) – Plum timeslot: Shows in plum time slots with average or slightly above average ratings have been cancelled.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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