Fox’s “Lone Star”

Continuing our hour by hour coverage of the fall schedule, we move to Monday nights at 9pm.  Newcomers Lone Star, Mike & Molly and The Event join veterans Dancing with the Stars, Gossip Girl and Two and a Half Men.

Monday Night 9pm-10pm:

MONDAY 9:00p 9:30p
Dancing with the Stars
Two and a Half Men Mike & Molly New
Gossip Girl
Lone Star New
The Event New

Disclaimer: the discussion below concerns the advertiser coveted adults 18-49 demographic.

One of the more difficult hours to predict due both to  a few new shows that are hard to gauge and being unsure whether Dancing with the Stars will perform more like it did last fall or more like the spring.  Since the full DWTS cast won’t be announced until August 30, it’s even more complicated to guess.

Once things settle down from the first few weeks of the season, if Dancing with the Stars is on the low end,  even with a  Mike & Molly that doesn’t perform nearly as well as The Big Bang Theory, CBS should still win the hour thanks to Two and a Half Men.   But with a good cycle of DWTS the hour could be a competition between CBS & ABC.

Don’t be surprised if NBC gets decent-to-very-good numbers for the premiere of  The Event, but that won’t mean anything if The Event goes the route of Flash Forward.

Will Lone Star bring in Texas-sized ratings or cable-sized ratings?  Another serialized drama, and this one a soap opera (pitched as “Dallas” without the cheese).  Critical buzz out of the TCAs earlier this month was pretty good, but I’m more confident using The Magic 8 ball when it comes to predicting ratings than using buzz from television critics.  One reason critics might gravitate to it is is the show aims to be more like cable in that its characters will be complicated shades of gray.   I’m a fan of that sort of thing myself, but Fox won’t be a fan of cable-sized ratings.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

It’s getting tougher in general to program heavily serialized shows on the broadcast nets, and this is a very tough time slot so both Lone Star and The Event have a tough row to hoe ratings-wise.  With apologies to Chuck, with House, Lone Star definitely has the benefit of a better lead-in than The Event.  But The Event will get a lot of promotion during the Sunday Night Football games leading up to its premiere on September 20.

Who’ll win?  I asked the  The Magic 8-Ball if CBS would win and it said “Reply hazy, try again.”  So I tried again and it said “Better not tell you now.”   I’d rather wait for some ratings data, especially for the new shows, but for grins I’ll say CBS wins but if there’s an up cycle of Dancing With the Stars,  ABC has a shot.  Unless Mike & Molly is a superstar.

Next Monday (August 30) I’ll cover Monday from 10-11p, tomorrow (Tuesday August 24) I’ll cover Tuesdays at 9pm.  Within a couple of more weeks, every hour of the schedule will be covered.  You can find all the hour-by-hour coverage here.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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