Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 8, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Til Death (S), (F)||0.20|
|Dollhouse (F), (P)||0.25|
|Lie To Me (P)||0.76|
|American Dad (P)||0.93|
|The Simpsons (P)||1.11|
|The Cleveland Show (P)||1.15|
|Family Guy (P)||1.25|
Note that the Index values for all Fox shows will continue to be very depressed for some time because the World Series ratings have unusually boosted Fox’s overall average. That will slowly subside as Fox’s average evens out post-baseball. For the time being, the order of the shows is far more important than the Index values.
I’m on record in the recent past as being positive on Fringe’s chances for renewal even with its relatively poor ratings performance on Thursdays. However, last week it managed only a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating. Was that entirely a post World Series scheduling/confusion situation? Why then did Bones dip just slightly to a 2.6? The eyes of Fringe fans should be on this week’s results. Another sub-2.0 rating and you might want to start a crazy fan “Save Our Show” campaign. Commenter Harold suggests skywriting.
Dollhouse, ‘Til Death and Brothers , all certain to be canceled, are off Fox’s schedule for the November sweeps period. Dollhouse will gets its 13 episodes aired, as it seems Brothers will too. Who knows (or cares) what happens with all the episodes of ‘Til Death.
This is a breakdown of Fox scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think it’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.