No more early premieres, no more sneak peaks, no more summer competition. Monday is the first night of the 2010-11 broadcast primetime season. By Tuesday morning, the first ratings report card will be in.
Five new shows premiere Monday (CBS – Mike & Molly, Hawaii Five-0; NBC – The Event, Chase; Fox – Lone Star).
Seven veteran shows premiere (ABC – Dancing with the Stars, Castle; CBS – How I Met Your Mother, Rules Of Engagement, Two And A Half Men; NBC – Chuck; Fox – House)
How will they do in the ratings?
Here were the fast affiliate overnight adults 18-49 ratings for premiere Monday LAST FALL:
ABC DWTS 4.1, Castle 2.3
CBS HIMYM 3.5, Accidentally on Purpose 3.2, Two And A Half Men 4.4, Big Bang Theory 4.6, CSI: Miami 4.3
Fox House (2 hr) 6.5
NBC Heroes (2 hr) 2.7, The Jay Leno Show 1.8
No individual guesses, but I’d expect ABC’s line up to stay reasonably close to last season’s premiere numbers. I think CBS will likely fall a bit more, particularly after 9:30. I think Fox’s Monday night is on very shaky ground, a weakening House is unlikely to provide a big platform for 9pm. NBC’s Monday night might be on no ground at all. Conventional wisdom is that The Event opens huge and then trails off. I’m not even sure that happens.