The most talked about change to Thursday night’s this season has been the move of CBS ratings heavyweight The Big Bang Theory to 8pm. But that’s not the only change. There are 3 series premieres (My Generation, $#*! My Dad Says, Outsourced), and ten season premieres (Grey’s Anatomy, Private Practice, Big Bang Theory, CSI, The Mentalist, Community, 30 Rock, The Office, Bones, Fringe).
How will they do in the ratings?
The general trend so far for returning shows has been to debut up a bit from their May, 2010 ratings level, but not close to their Fall, 2009 premiere ratings. I expect that ratings pattern will hold for Fox although everything at 8pm could be in danger because of the unpredictability of the CBS audience. I’d expect a weak My Generation to hurt Grey’s Anatomy all season, as did the weakened FlashForward last year. I’ll guess Big Bang Theory gets the same audience that Two And A Half Men did on Monday, but that may be a stretch. Even the low ratings I expect for NBC in the 8pm hour may turn out to be optimistic.
My guesses (adults 18-49 ratings):
- Bones: 2.8
- My Generation: 2.3
- Big Bang Theory: 4.8
- Community: 2.2
- S#*! My Dad Says: 3.9
- 30 Rock: 2.3
- Grey’s Anatomy: 4.2
- CSI: 3.4
- The Office 3.8
- Fringe: 2.3
- Outsourced: 2.9
- The Mentalist: 3.6
- Private Practice: 3.1
You can check out other premiere dates here.
Premiere Thursday 2009 (September 24, 2009) (note not all shows were premires)
Ah, FlashForward, by December it had fallen to a 2.1 and its fate was sealed.
|Time||Net||Show||18-49 Rating/Share||Viewers (Millons)|
|8:00||ABC||FlashForward (series premiere)||4.1/12||12.41|
|NBC||SNL Weekend Update Thursday||1.8/5||4.66|
|CW||The Vampire Diaries||1.7/5||3.81|
|8:30||NBC||Parks & Recreation||1.8/5||4.22|
|ABC||Grey’s Anatomy (season premiere)||6.6/17||17.06|
|CBS||CSI (season premiere)||4.1/10||15.72|
|10:00||ABC||Grey’s Anatomy (season premiere)||6.7/18||16.52|
|CBS||The Mentalist (season premiere)||3.4/9||14.33|
|NBC||The Jay Leno Show||1.7/5||4.99|
Premiere Thursday 2010 schedule:
|Time||Net||Show||18-49 Rating/Sh||Viewers (Millions)|
|8:00||FOX||Bones (Season Premiere)|
|ABC||My Generation (Series Premiere)|
|CBS||The Big Bang Theory (Season Premiere)|
|NBC||Community (Season Premiere)|
|CW||The Vampire Diaries|
|8:30||CBS||S#*! My Dad Says (Series Premiere)|
|NBC||30 Rock (Season Premiere)|
|9:00||NBC||The Office (Season Premiere)|
|ABC||Grey’s Anatomy (Season Premiere)|
|CBS||CSI (Season Premiere)|
|FOX||Fringe (Season Premiere)|
|9:30||NBC||Outsourced (Series Premiere)|
|10:00||CBS||The Mentalist (Season Premiere)|
|ABC||Private Practice (Season Premiere)|
What are your guesses?