Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through January 24, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.56|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.77|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.96|
|30 Rock (P)||1.08|
|The Office (P)||1.51|
Heroes has had its ratings ups and downs this season, but lately, they’ve been all down. Since the new year it’s had adults 18-49 ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8 and 1.9 (prelim). It’s going to take some really super powers to get its ratings back enough to save it from being canceled, and its only got a few episodes left this season to do it.
Chuck scored another 2.5 rating last night. I think that’s just on the good side of renewal for the show. If it can keep that ratings level up, I am confident it will be back.
Since NBC’s freed up 5 more hours of primetime post-Leno, some marginal shows like Parks & Recreation and Community look a lot better for renewal.
As horrible as the situation is, I’ve got to believe NBC will try something new other than the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy. Even starving post-Leno beggars have to be a little bit choosy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.