Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through November 22, 2009):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.54|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.75|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.97|
|30 Rock (P)||1.12|
|The Office (P)||1.53|
On November 3 I wrote “Heroes: Far From Its Peak, But Far From Dead“. Including the night before (11/2), Heroes had averaged a 2.47 adults 18-49 rating its previous six airings. After I wrote that, Heroes’ ratings fell, going 2.3, 2.2, 2.3. That’s the difference between “OK”, and “Uh, Oh”. Those quicker than I to suggest unproven causality might be motivated to call it the “Renew/Cancel Index Curse”, but I think Madden Football’s out of my league.
Law & Order’s recent ratings improvement trend hit a pothole last Friday, when it sank back to a 1.4 adults 18-49 rating. Is that temporary or a sign of things to come? If it can hold a 1.7 adults 18-49 rating on Friday (maybe even a 1.6 rating) I think it’s back on NBC next season. With a 1.7 rating and assuming that NBC’s overall average falls after football to a 2.5, that would produce an Index of 0.68. CBS renews its Friday dramas with those relative ratings, I figure NBC will too.
Trauma got an order for three more episodes. Sort of like a condemned man being given three more days to live. Mercy’s ratings make it certain to be canceled at the end of the season. It has a 22 episode order, but it has done no better than Trauma.
Parks & Recreation has relatively perked up lately in the ratings, and the ratings carnage at NBC is so complete that unless a miracle happens this spring with their new shows (and their development slate) the network very well may have to have to hold its nose and keep some of its well below average performers. If that happens, 30 minute sitcoms like Community and Parks & Recreation are the likely candidates.
Beginning this week, for show’s in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with sharply improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on 4 week Indexes instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
While I initially tried to designate shows with “plum” timeslots, I think that’s hard to make that call at this point in the season. It’s likely still a factor, but will have to be an “after the fact” call.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.