Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (results through March 14, 2010):
- Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010
- Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
- Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
- Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
|Program||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Law & Order (F), (P)||0.57|
|Law & Order (Monday), (P)||0.70|
|Parks & Recreation (P)||0.81|
|Law & Order: SVU (P)||0.99|
|30 Rock (P)||1.10|
|The Office (P)||1.54|
It seemed to me that the hopes of the entire network had been piled on NBC’s Parenthood. With a 2.6 rating last week, it now seems unlikely to be the savior of the network. However, if it can hold that ratings level, it seems likely to save itself. “Everyone to the life boats, Ron Howard dramas first!”
I almost titled this post “Chuck : Fear the Sun!” (the fact that Robert will title 27 posts with Chuck over the next week deterred me) Last night’s preliminary 1.9 rating in the face of Daylight Savings Time should be troubling to fans. If it pops back up to the 2.4 range, it will be a fine bubble show we can wonder about until the announcements in May. If it doesn’t pick back up, the Chuck deathwatch is on.
Some would put Heroes on NBC’s bubble too. For me, its final show ratings of 2.2, 2.1, 1.8, 1.9, 2.0, 2.0 say its a goner, even on NBC.
As horrible as the situation is, NBC will try something new other than keeping the ratings sinkholes Trauma and Mercy.
For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for shows either with either improving or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on short term averages instead of season to date Indexes.
This is a breakdown of NBC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:
The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in NBC’s calculation I have removed the ratings effects of the weeks that included the Winter Olympics). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.
Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:
- (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
- (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
- (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
- (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.
Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2009 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.