Lots of attention’s being paid to the new shows about to premiere for the 2009-10 broadcast season, but because of some marginal renewals of freshman shows  last season there are lots of questions about the survival rate of the the incoming sophomore class. Many were borderline, or worse, ratings performers last season, so their continued existence is far from assured.

Here’s my guesses on which shows will survive and make it to their Junior year:


Castle: Likely to survive. Borderline ratings last season, but gets plum post Dancing With the Stars slot.

Better Off Ted: Dead. Low ratings last spring. Worse during its summer run, even given lower expectations.


Parks & Recreation: Highly unlikely to survive. Perhaps held over to not admit total defeat for the season, and keep Amy Poehler happy. Easily jettisoned as a Ben Silverman mistake.

Southland: See “Parks & Recreation” minus Poehler reference.


Dollhouse: Highly unlikely to survive. Rumored to have been saved by a combination of budget cuts and Joss Whedon vehicle cancellation gun-shyness, I doubt lightning strikes twice here.

Lie To Me: Highly likely to survive. Good ratings last season. Gets the lucrative post-House slot.

Fringe: Highly likely to survive. Teamed with Bones, it has made Fox’s previously weak Thursdays credible.


90210: Likely to survive as long as CW is lead by Dawn Ostroff. I think it’s still better than 50% that both are around in fall 2010.


The Mentalist: No brainer, certain survival. Big ratings last season, faces Jay Leno this season.

Gary Unmarried: No clue. Hardest guess on the list. If ratings mattered more than a second comedy block to CBS it should have been gone already. Will CBS cling to a second comedy beach-head if ratings are bad this season? Your guess is as good as mine. Has the advantage of extremely light competition in its time period.

Which shows do you think will survive? (vote for as many as you want, feel free to enlighten us in the comments):

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Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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